GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- According to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted over the weekend, 63% of likely voters say it is "very likely" that they will tune in tonight to watch the first presidential debate between Vice President Gore and Governor Bush. An additional 20% say it is somewhat likely that they will be watching. Only a very small percentage -- 10% -- of voters do not intend to watch the debates at all.
Democrats and Republicans Equally Likely to Watch, But
Independents Less So
There is very little difference between Republicans and Democrats
in the interest they express in the debates. Eighty-two percent of
Republicans say they are likely to watch the debate, compared to
86% of Democrats. To a significant degree, however, it is
independents who form a primary target for the candidates because
this group is less attached to a particular candidate than are
Democrats or Republicans and, therefore, more likely to change
their minds. Independents, it turns out, are less likely than their
partisan counterparts to indicate an interest in tuning in to the
debate. Only 69% of independents claim it is likely that they will
watch the debate, while a quarter of independents say they are "not
at all likely" to watch tonight.
Older Americans generally tend to be more engaged in politics and it is perhaps not surprising that they are most likely to say that they intend to watch the debate. Seventy percent of those over the age of 50 say it is very likely that they will watch the debate tonight, compared to only 47% of those between the ages of 18 and 29.
At the same time, those with higher levels of formal education are no more likely to watch than are those with less education. People of all income brackets are about equally likely to watch, as are the numbers of men and women.
The Debates and the Issues
Presidential debates are designed to be bipartisan forums for the
candidates to discuss their different stances on the issues and
explain their particular visions for the country directly to the
voters. Indeed, Gallup data show that the candidates' stances on
the issues are a critical part of the voters' calculus. Forty-four
percent of Americans say the candidates' issue positions are most
important to them when deciding for whom to vote, compared to 36%
who say that leadership skills and vision are most important.
Fifteen percent say that leadership qualities and issue positions
are equally important. This marks a change from earlier this year,
when voters were more likely to say that leadership would be the
dominant factor in their decision. However, those who say issue
positions are most important are no more likely to watch the debate
tonight than are those who say that leadership skills are most
important. Eighty-three percent of both groups say they are
somewhat or very likely to be tuning in. Democrats and independents
are more likely to feel that issues are important; Republicans are
more interested in the leadership skills and vision of the
candidates.
Presidential Debates in Historical Perspective
Conventional political wisdom tells us that the debates are a
fundamental part of the election and can change the race
significantly. Pundits often point to the Kennedy-Nixon debates of
1960, the first televised presidential debates, as an example of
how debate performance can propel a candidate forward in the race.
Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy was said to have been more
telegenic than was Nixon, and most debate watchers agreed that
Kennedy "won" the debate. Gallup poll data from the 1960 election
cycle, however, show that the four debates of that year did not
significantly alter the number of people supporting each candidate.
Kennedy and Nixon were tied in a statistical dead heat, both before
and after the debates. Although some may argue that Nixon would
have gained momentum in the absence of the debates, that is
difficult to prove from existing data.
The debates in the 1976 election between Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford are used to demonstrate the impact of debates on elections. (Indeed, Gallup analysts at the time speculated that Ford was gaining momentum in the polls in the days and weeks preceding the debates, but that his momentum was halted.) According to viewers who watched the first debate, Ford was perceived to be the winner and he did, in fact, gain nine percentage points between the eve of the first debate and the eve of the second debate. During the second debate, however, Ford misspoke regarding the Communist domination in Eastern Europe, which lent credence to the idea that Ford "lost" the debate. At the time, analysts speculated that if Ford had not lost the second debate in the minds of viewers, he might have continued to catch up with Carter and could have surpassed him. Instead, the contest remained close right up through Election Day. The final outcome of the election was Carter 50%, Ford 48%.
The 1980 contest between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan also showcased debates between the two candidates. Many commentators point to Reagan's strong debate performance as the driving force behind his massive comeback in the polls. Prior to the October debate, Carter was leading Reagan 45% to 39%, but Carter's lead narrowed to one point immediately after the debate. Reagan, however, eventually won the election by nine percentage points (51% - 41%). Whether this reversal of fortune for Reagan was a function of a good debate performance is uncertain in light of the fact that developments surrounding the Iran Hostage crisis exploded just two days after the debates -- in many commentators' minds a devastating blow for President Carter.
Conventional wisdom also suggests that the debates played an important role in the three-way race between Clinton, Bush and Perot in 1992. Perot's candidacy was the strongest third party showing in recent memory. Most debate watchers interviewed by Gallup agreed that Perot won the first debate. The effect of the actual debates, however, is muddled by the fact that Perot was spending millions of dollars on his campaign during the time period of the debates. It is difficult to parse out the effects of the advertising blitz and the Texas billionaire's debate performance.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1231 adults, 18 years and older,
conducted September 28-30, 2000. For results based on this sample,
one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
Results based on likely voters are based on a sub-sample of 691 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2000 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of Likely Voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.
On Tuesday, October 3rd, Al Gore and George W. Bush will participate in their first presidential debate beginning at 9:00 pm Eastern Time -- and this will be aired on all the major television networks. How likely is it that you, yourself, will watch the debate on live TV? Would you say -- very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?
| Very likely |
Somewhat likely |
Not too likely |
Not at all likely |
No opinion |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likely Voters | |||||
| (LV) 2000 Sep 28-30 | 63% | 20 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
Which of the following do you think will be most important to you when you decide who to vote for -- [ROTATED] where the candidates stand on issues that matter to you (or) the leadership skills and vision that you think the candidates would have as president?
| Stance on the issues |
Leadership skills and vision |
Both equally (VOL.) |
Neither (VOL.) |
No opinion |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likely Voters | |||||
| (LV) 2000 Sep 28-30 | 44% | 36 | 15 | 2 | 3 |