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Democratic Lead Remains Commanding, Although Narrowed

Democratic Lead Remains Commanding, Although Narrowed

Democrats over Republicans among likely voters, 54% to 41%

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Democrats continue to hold a commanding lead over the Republicans when voters are asked for which party's congressional candidate they will vote on Nov. 7. The Democrats' current margin is down from two weeks ago, at a time when the Foley scandal revelations were reaching fever pitch, and is now more typical of poll results from earlier this year.

There continues to be very little difference in the vote estimate derived from all registered voters and the estimate among likely voters only. This suggests that at this point in the election cycle the Republicans do not have the distinct turnout advantage that they have enjoyed in the last three midterm elections.

Basic Congressional Voting

The Oct. 20-22 poll shows the Democrats leading among registered voters 53% to 38%, and 54% to 41% among likely voters. This marks a loss of some ground by the Democrats compared with the Oct. 6-8 poll in which Democrats led 58% to 35% among registered voters and 59% to 36% among likely voters.

The current 15-point Democratic lead among registered voters remains among the largest Democrat leads on any Gallup Poll conducted since the Republicans won majority power in the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994.

The Democrats held significant leads over the Republicans similar to the current margin at a number of points earlier this year. The Republicans gained ground in late August and early September. The Democratic lead then expanded dramatically to the very wide gap in the Oct. 6-8 poll conducted during the intense media focus on the Foley revelations and allegations of a possible cover up by the Republican leaders. Now the Democratic lead has essentially settled back down again.

Some Republican strategists have been emphasizing the possible positive impact of a pending massive get-out-the-vote effort as the GOP's secret weapon of sorts in this year's election.

But at this time, there does not appear to be a significant turnout advantage for the GOP. Gallup estimates that if the election were held today there would be little difference in the results among those who actually turned out to vote compared to the larger pool of all registered voters. (Of course, if all of the GOP's turnout effort is concentrated in the last 72 hours of the campaign, then its impact might not yet be visible in current polling.)

The margin among likely voters is only two points different than the margin among all registered voters. This is similar to the pattern found in the early October USA Today/Gallup poll, in which there was no difference between registered voters and likely voters.

Gallup's Sept. 15-17 poll, on the other hand, found a more typical Republican advantage among likely voters compared to their positioning in the larger pool of all registered voters.

The results of a separate question included in the most recent poll that asks about voters' motivation to get out and vote are also worth noting:

How motivated do you feel to get out and vote this year -- extremely motivated, very motivated, somewhat motivated, not too motivated or not at all motivated?

Extremely moti-
vated

Very moti-
vated

Somewhat moti-
vated

Not too moti-
vated

Not at all moti-
vated

No
opinion

National Adults

%

%

%

%

%

%

2006 Oct 20-22

45

25

15

5

9

1

2006 Jun 23-25

44

27

19

5

5

*

2002 Oct 3-6

30

25

23

10

11

1

1998 Oct 29-Nov 1

28

25

25

9

12

1

1998 Oct 23-25

28

23

26

10

12

1

1998 Oct 9-12

27

26

28

9

9

1

1998 Sep 23-24

31

30

22

8

8

1

Republicans

2006 Oct 20-22

50

28

14

3

4

1

2006 Jun 23-25

44

30

19

5

*

1

2002 Oct 3-6

37

28

19

10

5

1

1998 Oct 29-Nov 1

31

28

26

7

7

1

1998 Oct 23-25

36

31

20

7

5

1

1998 Oct 9-12

31

28

26

9

4

2

1998 Sep 23-24

40

33

17

4

5

1

Independents

2006 Oct 20-22

34

26

18

7

15

*

2006 Jun 23-25

37

24

23

7

9

*

2002 Oct 3-6

22

25

25

10

17

1

1998 Oct 29-Nov 1

20

23

24

11

20

2

1998 Oct 23-25

19

18

31

12

19

1

1998 Oct 9-12

22

26

28

10

14

*

1998 Sep 23-24

22

27

23

12

14

2

Democrats

2006 Oct 20-22

53

23

14

5

4

1

2006 Jun 23-25

49

28

15

3

5

*

2002 Oct 3-6

31

24

25

9

10

1

1998 Oct 29-Nov 1

32

25

26

7

9

1

1998 Oct 23-25

33

23

27

8

8

1

1998 Oct 9-12

28

25

29

9

7

2



There is very little difference between Democrats and Republicans on this measure. Fifty-three percent of Democrats are extremely motivated to get out and vote this year, compared to 50% of Republicans. Seventy-six percent of Democrats are either extremely or very motivated to vote, compared to 78% of Republicans.

By way of comparison, in October 2002, the Republicans had a 37% to 31% edge in terms of being extremely motivated to vote, and a 65% to 55% edge in terms of the combined extremely and very motivated grouping. Thus, in an historical framework, the absence of a significant GOP advantage on this measure at this time is notable and a departure from the recent norm.

Re-Elect Measures

Two standard Gallup Poll questions which track re-elect sentiment are as negative as they have been since 1994. Only 38% of registered voters say that most members of Congress deserve re-election. That's the same as in early October of this year, but way below the levels on this measure in 2002 or 1998. Technically, it's the lowest on this measure since October 1992.

A higher 54% of registered voters say that the U.S. representative in their congressional district deserves re-election. This is common. Americans usually give higher marks to their local representative even while showing deep frustrations with Congress. Still, the fact that this measure is low by historical standards is important and another indication of the negative mood of the electorate this year.

Conclusion

The current double-digit lead for Democrats among both registered and likely voters in the generic ballot, although down from the previous early October USA Today/Gallup poll, is substantial. If this margin persists for the remainder of the campaign, there is a near certain probability of the Democrats gaining House seats. The translation of this type of strong Democratic tilt in the national House vote into the 15 seats necessary for the Democrats to take control of the House remains a possibility. Of key interest in the remaining two weeks of this campaign will be the size of the likely voter margin compared to all registered voters, a key to understanding the ultimate impact of motivational and get-out-the-vote efforts from both parties.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,002 national adults, aged 18+, conducted October 20-22, 2006. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/25126/Democrat-Lead-Remains-Commanding-Although-Narrowed.aspx
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