GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- This week brought the unwelcome economic news
that the nation's gross domestic product growth slowed to 1.6% in
the third quarter of 2006, the weakest level in three years. Prior
to that, one might have argued that the Republicans could have used
low inflation, the bull stock market, steady economic growth, and
robust consumer spending to turn the economy into a winning issue
for the GOP during the current midterm election cycle.
Nevertheless, Gallup's monthly findings on Americans' economic
moods have been lackluster all year, and despite some slight
improvement since the summer, the latest news virtually insures the
measures will stay that way.
According to the latest Gallup economic poll, conducted Oct.
20-22, less than half of Americans (44%) consider economic
conditions today to be "excellent" or "good," while 33% call them
"only fair" and 22% say they are "poor." Similarly, by a 13-point
margin, 54% to 41%, Americans believe economic conditions are
getting worse rather than improving. Gallup obtained these results
just before the latest economic report.
Behind the national consumer confidence numbers, Gallup finds
strong partisan differences in economic views that help to explain
the dearth of positive economic ratings seen for much of the past
six years. About 7 in 10 Republicans currently say economic
conditions are excellent or good, compared with only 39% of
independents and 28% of Democrats. Nearly three-quarters of
Republicans (73%) say the economy is getting better, but 56% of
independents and 75% of Democrats say it is getting worse.
As Gallup has observed with respect to other measures of the
public's mood -- such as satisfaction with the nation as a whole --
Americans of the same political party as the sitting president tend
to have a rosier view of conditions than those who are members of
the opposing political party. Whether that phenomenon reflects real
differences in perceptions about the economy or mere political
shading of survey answers to either buttress or harm the
president's reputation is not clear. In any case, current optimism
about the nation's economy is robust among Republicans while it is
highly jaded among independents and Democrats. It has been this way
practically from the start of George W. Bush's presidency in
January 2001.
Bush's first inauguration coincided with news reports about
slowing economic growth, and as a result Bush's ratings on the
economy immediately declined among all three political groups
within his first few months in office. This continued for about the
first three years of his presidency. Then, toward the end of 2003,
Republicans' economic ratings started to improve on the news of
strong economic growth, while Democrats' ratings remained highly
negative. Republican economic confidence is now back to where it
stood in January 2001, while Democratic confidence remains well
below that baseline.
Partisan gaps in ratings of the economy are not new under Bush's
administration. Gallup saw this pattern during Bill Clinton's
presidency, as well. However, in the last several months of
Clinton's term, Republicans were nearly as positive as Democrats
about the nation's economy. For example, in an August 2000 poll,
81% of Democrats, as well as 70% of Republicans and 71% of
independents, rated economic conditions as excellent or good.
Not only did the public perceive the economy as strong at that
time, but the U.S. budget deficit was running a record surplus and
there were no major domestic or international crises to sour the
public's mood more generally. In the absence of such negative hooks
to hang their hats on, Republicans could only acknowledge the
positive state of the economy.
Today, there are perhaps enough ambiguities about the national
economy -- the softening of the housing market, still-inflated gas
prices, wage stagnation, the federal budget deficit, and now a
slowing GDP -- that Democrats may have less difficulty finding
reasons to be critical of it under Bush.
Doug Johnson of Canaccord Adams in Boston is quoted in the
New York Times this week as saying that there are
contrasting data as to the current state of the economy. "There are
a lot of warning signs, but if it were glaringly obvious, everyone
would be on it," he said. With that, Republicans can continue to
focus on the positive, Democrats can focus on the negative, and
consumer confidence will continue to be a disjointed measure of
political reactions toward the Bush White House.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1,002 adults, aged 18 and older,
conducted Oct. 20-22, 2006. For results based on this sample, one
can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to
sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into
the findings of public opinion polls.
