Political Climate Favors Democrats in Midterm Elections

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- As has been well-documented, state legislatures have gone to great lengths to try and insulate their incumbent members of Congress from sometimes powerful partisan tides. This contentious process often involves partisan horse trading resulting in the creation of safe Republican and safe Democratic seats. These efforts will be put to the test today when the Republican Party hopes to survive a possibly powerful Democratic surge. The key measures of Americans' political mood are all downbeat and spell trouble for a government that is controlled by Republicans. In fact, these measures are very similar to what they were in 1994 when voters swept the Democrats out of power in the House and Senate in a landslide Republican election. Perhaps because of the favorable Democratic climate, the polling data suggest that Democrats may be able to match Republicans in turnout, which has been critical to Republican success in the past several elections.

Following is a run-down of the key indicators with comparisons to earlier midterm elections.

Presidential Approval

The president's public standing is usually a major factor in midterm election outcomes. While the norm has been for the president's party to lose House seats in an election, the likelihood and/or magnitude of the loss is greatly influenced by the president's popularity. Only 38% of Americans approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as president. That approval rating is lower than the 46% job approval rating Bill Clinton had before the 1994 Republican landslide, and also lower than Ronald Reagan's 42% approval rating in the strong Democratic year of 1982. In fact, no president has had a lower approval rating at the time of a midterm election since 1950.

Bush's 38% job approval rating stands in stark contrast to the 63% he had in the 2002 midterm elections, when Republicans bucked historical trends and gained seats in both the U.S. House and Senate.

Congressional Job Approval

According to the final USA Today/Gallup pre-election survey, just 26% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, while 63% disapprove. Public approval of Congress has shown little change in the past month, but it is lower than Gallup measured from June to September. The latest results are more in line with levels recorded this past spring. Over the course of the entire year, congressional job approval ratings have averaged 26% and ranged between a low of 21% in May and a high of 29% in July and again in September.

By historical comparison, the latest 26% approval rating for Congress ranks among the worst Gallup has recorded in a midterm election since 1974. The current results are at roughly the same level measured prior to the midterm elections in four of the past nine races: a 29% rating in 1978, another 29% rating in 1982, a 26% rating in 1990, and the lowest pre-midterm approval rating of 23% in 1994. But, Congress' approval rating is much lower now than it was in 2002 (the highest pre-election approval rating, at 50%), 1998 (at 44%), 1986 (at 42%), and 1974 (at 35%).

National Satisfaction

Only about one in three Americans (35%) say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country right now, while the majority of Americans, 61%, say they are dissatisfied. The current results show a slight uptick in Americans' overall satisfaction over the past month, and are now at their highest level since February. So far this year, satisfaction has averaged 31%, with a low of 25% and a high of 36%.

Satisfaction with the way things are going in this country has varied greatly in final midterm pre-election polls since 1982, and the current 35% satisfaction level ranks roughly in the middle of these surveys. The latest results are lower than Gallup measured in 1986 (58%), 1998 (the highest measure, 60%), and 2002 (48%), but are higher than those conducted in 1982 (the lowest measure, 24%), 1990 (31%), and 1994 (30%).

Perceived Economic Conditions

According to the latest Gallup economic poll, conducted Oct. 20-22, less than half of Americans (44%) consider economic conditions today to be "excellent" or "good," while 33% call them "only fair," and 22% say they are "poor." Similarly, only 41% believe economic conditions are getting better while the majority (54%) say they are getting worse.

While negative on their face, these readings present the classic glass half-full/half-empty conundrum for analysts.

On the one hand, recent surveys from October show the public's economic outlook brightening following dismal ratings this summer -- most likely due to the decline in gas prices and record-breaking milestones in the stock market. In August and early September, only 34% rated the economy excellent or good and just 22% perceived conditions as getting better. So, on a relative basis, Americans are feeling better about the economy. Current ratings are also better than what Gallup found four years ago just prior to the 2002 midterm elections. At that time, only 28% called the economy excellent or good and 37% said it was improving.

On the other hand, ratings of the economy remain more negative than positive and are much less robust than what was recorded in 1998. At that time, a majority of Americans described the economy in positive terms (66% called it "excellent" or "good") and were optimistic about its direction (51% "better"). Today's ratings are also very similar to where they stood in November 1994 (30% excellent or good).

Perhaps most importantly, relatively few Americans today mention the economy spontaneously when asked to name the most important problem facing the country. With Iraq on their minds, the economy is taking a back seat as a concern, and possibly as an issue at the ballot box. As of the Oct. 9-12 survey, only 19% mentioned any aspect of the economy -- including unemployment, energy prices, or inflation -- as the nation's top problem. This compares with 28% mentioning Iraq specifically and an additional 14% mentioning terrorism or national security. Fourteen years ago, on the eve of 1992 presidential election associated with Bill Clinton's war room slogan "it's the economy stupid," nearly 70% of Americans cited the economy as the country's top problem.

Support for Incumbents

In order for there to be much change in Congress, anti-incumbent sentiment would need to be high since there are relatively few open House seats each year. In recent elections, Gallup has measured basic support for incumbent members of Congress by asking Americans if they believe most members of Congress, and separately, if their own members of Congress, deserve re-election.

Throughout the year, support for incumbent re-election has been relatively low, even though a majority favors re-electing their own members of Congress. In fact, the 53% who say their member deserves re-election is the same as it was in 1994, when many Democratic incumbents were defeated. In 1998 and 2002, when there was relatively little change in the composition of Congress, roughly two in three said their member deserved another term.

Meanwhile, just 39% of Americans say that most members of the U.S. House deserve re-election. Again, this is far below where it was in the last two midterm election years, and about the same as it was in 1994.

Turnout

A key question in Gallup's seven-question likely voter model is one that asks respondents how much thought they have given to the upcoming election. Those saying "quite a lot" or "some" are given a point toward their likely voter score; those who say "only a little" or "none" do not get this point and most likely drop out of the likely voter pool.

In previous midterm years, this has been a strong discriminator between Republicans and Democrats, detecting the greater likelihood of Republicans to turn out to vote. While Republicans retain an edge, it is tempered when compared with recent years. According to the final 2006 pre-election survey, 60% of Republicans nationally say they have given quite a lot or some thought to the election, compared with 56% of Democrats. By contrast, in 2002, Republicans led by 10 points on this measure (54% to 44%) and in 1994 they led by 11 points (65% to 54%).

Factoring in all seven questions, 45% of Republicans nationwide, compared with 43% of Democrats, score as "likely voters" on Gallup's turnout model. By contrast, in 2002, Gallup calculated the turnout rate as 43% among Republicans and 36% among Democrats -- a seven-point advantage for Republicans, compared with the two-point advantage seen today. The 2002 rates were almost identical to Gallup's 1998 final midterm election poll when 43% of Republicans and 36% of Democrats scored as likely voters. In 1994, turnout was higher among both parties, but still showed a strong Republican advantage: 49% among Republicans and 40% among Democrats.

Thought given to the election is also an important indicator of the likely turnout rate among all voters. Today's 55% of Americans giving quite a lot or some thought is significantly higher than that seen in 2002 (43%) and somewhat higher than in 1998 (50%), but on par with 1994 (56%). This suggests voter turnout among the voting age population will be on the high end of the normal range between 35% and 40%.

A separate question asks Americans how enthusiastic they feel about voting this year compared to previous elections. Republicans' level of enthusiasm is a bit higher than in the last three midterms, but Democratic enthusiasm is extraordinarily high.

With 44% of Republicans today saying they feel more enthusiastic and 36% saying they feel less enthusiastic, Republicans' net enthusiasm score is +8 percentage points. In each midterm from 1994 to 2002, their net enthusiasm was either 0 or somewhat negative.

Democrats today register a strongly positive net enthusiasm score of +20 (53% more enthusiastic vs. 33% less enthusiastic). That contrasts with negative net enthusiasm scores in each of the previous three midterms: -8 in 2002, -5 in 1998, and -15 in 1994.

This elevated level of Democratic enthusiasm could merely reflect the growing perception that the Democrats are poised to retake control of Congress. Democrats have showed positive enthusiasm about voting for most of 2006, but it is especially strong in this final pre-election poll. However, it could also mean that Democratic turnout will be higher than is otherwise indicated by their slightly improved deficit vis-a-vis the Republicans on Gallup's likely voter turnout model.

Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic?

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,516 adults, aged 18 years and older, conducted Nov. 2-5, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.