Majority of War Opponents Question Its Underlying Rationale

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The small group of Americans who favor the war in Iraq generally explain their position by echoing the administration's views that it is part of the war on terror. Those who oppose the war question the initial rationale for going to war and express concern over the war's costs.

The most recent Gallup Poll, conducted Jan. 15-18, 2007, asked Americans if they favored or opposed the war with Iraq and then followed-up with a question asking them to explain their position in their own words.

These basic data reflect the findings of many other recent surveys. Support for the war in Iraq is at its lowest point since the war began in March 2003.

Why Do Some Americans Favor the War?

Those who favor the war were asked to give the one or two most important reasons why. The resulting answers were coded into categories, which grouped similar responses as follows:

(Asked of adults who favor the U.S. war with Iraq) What are the one or two most important reasons why you favor the war with Iraq? [OPEN-ENDED]

BASED ON 361 ADULTS WHO FAVOR THE U.S. WAR WITH IRAQ

These responses in general mirror the rationale for the war advanced by the Bush administration. Americans who support the war are most likely to explain their position not by references to the value of the war for the Iraqi people themselves, but in terms of the benefits of the war in broader concerns -- such as the war on terror and keeping the U.S. safe and secure.

More specifically, about 65% of the responses can be categorized as explanations focused on the value of the war for broader considerations outside of Iraq per se:

A much smaller percentage, about 30%, of explanations for support of the war can be categorized as ones that focus on the value of the war for the Iraqi people:

Reasons for Opposing the War

The 61% of Americans who oppose the war in Iraq were also asked to explain their position in their own words:

(Asked of adults who oppose the U.S. war with Iraq) What are the one or two most important reasons why you oppose the war with Iraq? [OPEN-ENDED]

BASED ON 626 ADULTS WHO OPPOSE THE U.S. WAR WITH IRAQ

It is clear that there are two major categories of explanations for opposition to the war in Iraq: the underlying or basic rationale for the U.S. being there to begin with and the costs of the war.

The most frequently occurring rationale for opposition to the war -- mentioned by 67% of those who oppose it -- centers on the perception that the initial reasons for going to war were unsound, unjustified, and based on false pretenses:

About 4 in 10 Americans who oppose the war mention the costs of the conflict:

Bottom Line

There are no great surprises in the data gathered from the 36% of Americans who support the war in Iraq. These individuals, most of whom identify themselves as Republicans, tend to mirror the administration's position by talking about the value of the war for the United States and other countries in the long term -- rather than the value of helping the Iraqi people. In particular, this includes the perceived relationship between the war in Iraq and the war on terror. Less than a third of those who support the war justify that particular position in terms of its benefit for the Iraqi people.

The reasons given by those who oppose the war are strikingly different from the way the administration has characterized opposition. President Bush, national security adviser Stephen Hadley, and press secretary Tony Snow primarily talk about opposition to the war as based on concern that it is not proceeding well, that progress has been slow, and that the way to victory has not been made clear. These characterizations of opposition to the war implicitly assume that the basic rationale for the war is not being debated -- only its progress is.

The responses reviewed in this analysis, however, show that opposition to the war is first and foremost centered not on its execution but on the underlying reasons for being there in the first place. While it is reasonable to assume many Americans would like to succeed at any endeavor in which the government engages, in this situation the focal point of opponents is not the path to success in Iraq -- but rather the question of whether success is even worth the costs.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,018 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 15-18, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 361 adults who favor the U.S. war with Iraq, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 626 adults who oppose the U.S. war with Iraq, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.