Americans Remain Disgruntled With Nation's Direction

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush can be expected to put the best possible face on the country's affairs in his State of the Union speech Tuesday -- a speech White House Press Secretary Tony Snow has intimated will not be "typical" in its style. It's unlikely that means Bush will admonish the American people for their pessimism with a Jimmy Carter-like "malaise" speech. More likely, he will try to convey a Reaganesque vision of optimism for the country intended to inspire Americans. Nevertheless, Bush will face an audience in the American public that is firmly dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country, and has not been convinced otherwise for the last several years. 

According to Gallup's monthly measure of public satisfaction, updated Jan. 15-18, 2007, only 35% of Americans today are satisfied with the way things are going in the country; 63% are dissatisfied. Positive sentiments are up slightly from the 30% who were satisfied in December. The satisfaction average for all of 2006 was 31%. Still, a majority of Americans have not expressed being satisfied with the direction of the country since January 2004.

Except for a brief period following the 2001 terrorist attacks, when Americans expressed elevated levels of satisfaction as part of the broader "rally around the flag" effect triggered by 9/11, public satisfaction with the country has been depressed for most of Bush's presidency.

Iraq and the Economy Are Both Factors

Americans' satisfaction with the country today is highly correlated with how they feel about the Iraq war. According to the latest poll, two-thirds of those who say they favor the war also say they are satisfied with the country's direction. Conversely, the vast majority of those who oppose the war (82%) say they are dissatisfied with the country's direction.

Iraq does not appear to be the sole reason for public dissatisfaction, however. The correlations are just as strong between economic attitudes and satisfaction with the country. Two-thirds (67%) whose economic outlook is positive are satisfied with the direction of the country, while more than four in five (86%) of those with a negative economic outlook are dissatisfied.

Perhaps more fundamentally, satisfaction is a highly partisan measure these days. Republicans are largely satisfied with the way things are going, while most Democrats are dissatisfied. Political independents fall closer to Democrats in their attitudes; two-thirds of independents are dissatisfied.

The Local View Is Better

The state of affairs looks much brighter to Americans as their focus turns more local. A solid majority -- 61% -- say they are satisfied with conditions in their states; even more -- 79% -- are satisfied with the way things are going in their local communities.  These attitudes are generally similar to the previous readings from 2001, 2004, and 2005.

Satisfaction with affairs at the state level has been fairly constant over the past few years in the Midwest and South. Satisfaction was quite low in the West in January 2004, which Gallup analysts at the time attributed to the broad dissatisfaction in California leftover after the recall of Gov. Gray Davis a few months earlier. Since then, satisfaction in the West has been on par with the rest of the country. Satisfaction in the East tended to be lower in 2004 and 2005, but is now similar to the national average.

Attitudes about affairs at the state level are much less partisan than they are nationally, with only a nine-point difference (69% vs. 60%) in satisfaction between Republicans and Democrats.

State-level satisfaction is somewhat more likely to be tied to people's economic perceptions than it is to party ID, but still not to the same degree as seen with respect to U.S. satisfaction. 

In contrast with the modest variations seen at the state level, public perceptions of the direction of things in their local communities is uniformly positive, with two-thirds or more of most demographic, political, and regional groups saying they are satisfied.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,018 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 15-18, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

3. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

4. Are you very [satisfied/dissatisfied], or just somewhat [satisfied/dissatisfied]?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.3-4)

5. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in your state at this time?

6. All in all, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in your local community?