GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A review of Gallup polling data from 2006 underscores the relative strength the Democratic Party currently enjoys versus the Republican Party in American politics. For the year, Democrats averaged a nearly four point advantage over the Republicans on national party identification and an even larger 10-point advantage when independents' partisan "leanings" are taken into account. In an analysis of 2006 partisanship at the state level, 33 states show a statistically significant advantage in favor of the Democratic Party, six states show a statistically significant Republican advantage, and the remainder can be considered competitive. Democratic strength in the United States has grown in each of the last three years. The trends are fueled more by movement away from the Republican Party and into independent status than by movement toward the Democratic Party.
National Partisanship in 2006
An average of all national Gallup polling in 2006, consisting of interviews with more than 30,000 adult Americans, finds 34% of Americans identifying as Democrats, 30% as Republicans, and 34% as independents. The parties had been relatively even in terms of national strength since 2001. The most recent figures represent the largest Democratic advantage since the Clinton presidency.
Yearly Averages in National Party Identification
|
||||
Year |
Democrat |
Independent |
Republican |
Dem.-Rep.
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2006 |
34.3 |
33.9 |
30.4 |
3.9 |
2005 |
33.2 |
32.5 |
32.8 |
0.4 |
2004 |
33.6 |
31.2 |
34.2 |
-0.6 |
2003 |
30.5 |
36.1 |
32.4 |
-1.9 |
2002 |
32.1 |
34.1 |
33.0 |
-0.9 |
2001 |
32.9 |
34.9 |
32.1 |
0.8 |
2000 |
34.0 |
35.4 |
30.4 |
3.6 |
1999 |
33.5 |
38.5 |
28.1 |
5.4 |
1998 |
34.5 |
36.9 |
28.6 |
5.8 |
1997 |
34.4 |
37.1 |
28.5 |
5.9 |
1996 |
34.1 |
35.5 |
30.4 |
3.6 |
1995 |
30.8 |
39.1 |
30.1 |
0.7 |
1994 |
32.4 |
37.6 |
30.1 |
2.4 |
1993 |
34.0 |
37.6 |
28.6 |
5.4 |
1992 |
34.3 |
36.7 |
29.1 |
5.2 |
1991 |
30.9 |
36.2 |
33.2 |
-2.3 |
1990 |
34.5 |
32.9 |
32.8 |
1.8 |
1989 |
34.8 |
32.7 |
32.6 |
2.3 |
1988 |
35.6 |
33.3 |
30.9 |
4.8 |
The increasing Democratic advantage is mainly due to declining Republican identification, rather than increasing Democratic identification. From 2004-2006, Republican identification declined from 34% to 30%, while Democratic identification increased by less than a percentage point (33.6% to 34.3%). During the last three years, the percentage of Americans identifying as independents increased from 31% to 34%.
The Democrats' advantage expands when taking into account the "leanings" of independents. In 2006, 50% of Americans identified as Democrats or were independents who said they leaned toward the Democratic Party. Forty percent identified as Republicans or leaned to the Republican Party. That 10-point advantage more than doubled the Democrats' 4-point advantage in 2005, and is the largest gap Gallup has measured in any year for either party since it regularly began tracking leaned party identification in 1991. This is the first time since 1991 that a party's support reached the 50% level.
Yearly Averages in National Leaned Party Identification
|
|||
Year |
Democrat + lean |
Republican + lean |
Dem.-Rep.
|
% |
% |
|
|
2006 |
50.4 |
40.2 |
10.2 |
2005 |
47.7 |
43.2 |
4.4 |
2004 |
47.9 |
45.2 |
2.7 |
2003 |
45.1 |
45.2 |
-0.1 |
2002 |
44.7 |
45.1 |
-0.4 |
2001 |
45.4 |
44.1 |
1.3 |
2000 |
46.9 |
42.4 |
4.5 |
1999 |
48.2 |
41.0 |
7.2 |
1998 |
48.7 |
40.8 |
7.9 |
1997 |
49.2 |
40.1 |
9.1 |
1996 |
49.0 |
41.9 |
7.1 |
1995 |
45.5 |
44.3 |
1.2 |
1994 |
46.4 |
44.3 |
2.1 |
1993 |
48.4 |
41.1 |
7.3 |
1992 |
49.4 |
41.5 |
7.9 |
1991 |
43.9 |
47.8 |
-3.9 |
This measure of party affiliation displays more evidence of Democratic "growth." The 50% of Americans who identified or leaned to the Democratic Party in 2006 is about two percentage points higher than what the party averaged in 2004-2005. Meanwhile, Republican strength on this measure has declined five points since 2004.
Democratic strength was strongest in the fourth quarter of 2006, which included the Nov. 7 midterm election that propelled the Democrats to majority party status in both houses of Congress. In the fourth quarter, Democrats had a 6-point advantage over Republicans on standard party identification (35% to 29%) and a 14-point advantage on leaned party identification (52% to 38%). The strong Democratic shift is evident when compared to the third quarter of 2004, for example, when Republicans had a nearly 3-point advantage on standard party identification and were essentially even on leaned party identification.
Party Identification in Recent Quarters
|
|||||||
Standard Party
|
Leaned Party
|
||||||
Dem. |
Ind. |
Rep. |
D-R
|
Dem. |
Rep. |
D-R
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
2006-IV |
35.0 |
34.6 |
28.6 |
6.4 |
52.3 |
38.1 |
14.2 |
2006-III |
34.9 |
32.7 |
31.0 |
3.9 |
50.0 |
40.4 |
9.6 |
2006-II |
34.7 |
34.1 |
30.1 |
4.6 |
50.8 |
40.0 |
10.8 |
2006-I |
32.5 |
34.0 |
31.9 |
0.6 |
48.6 |
42.1 |
6.5 |
2005-IV |
32.8 |
33.7 |
31.9 |
0.9 |
48.5 |
42.0 |
6.5 |
2005-III |
33.8 |
33.6 |
31.1 |
2.7 |
48.7 |
41.8 |
6.9 |
2005-II |
33.4 |
32.2 |
33.1 |
0.3 |
47.4 |
43.2 |
4.2 |
2005-I |
32.8 |
30.6 |
35.3 |
-2.5 |
46.1 |
45.9 |
0.2 |
2004-IV |
34.2 |
29.5 |
35.5 |
-1.3 |
47.4 |
46.2 |
1.2 |
2004-III |
33.8 |
28.8 |
36.4 |
-2.6 |
46.9 |
46.8 |
0.1 |
2004-II |
34.3 |
31.4 |
32.6 |
1.7 |
49.1 |
43.1 |
6.0 |
2004-I |
31.9 |
34.9 |
32.3 |
-0.4 |
48.1 |
44.6 |
3.5 |
State Partisanship in 2006
The large amount of polling Gallup conducts each year allows for an analysis of party identification at the state level, although in some of the smaller states sample sizes are limited and the estimates are subject to wide margins of error. This analysis focuses on leaned party identification figures because states vary a great deal in the percentage of residents identifying as independents, making state-to-state comparisons more difficult. Plus, leaned party identification may be more relevant to political outcomes since the United States has a two-party system and it is thus useful to classify independents into one camp or the other.
Based on their 2006 averages in leaned party identification, Gallup classifies 33 states as Democratic in orientation (the state showed a statistically significant advantage in Democratic leaning in 2006) and six as Republican (the state showed a statistically significant advantage in Republican leaning in 2006). The remaining 10 states (including District of Columbia, but not including Alaska and Hawaii since Gallup does not interview in those states) are considered competitive, because the leading party's advantage is within the margin of error for that state's data. The overall results show a net gain of six states for Democrats and a net loss of six for Republicans from 2005. The shift since 2003 has been dramatic, when Republican-leaning states outnumbered Democratic-leaning states 20-14.
Classification of State Partisan Leanings
|
|||
Year |
Democratic |
Competitive* |
Republican |
% |
% |
% |
|
2006 |
33 |
10 |
6 |
2005 |
27 |
10 |
12 |
2004 |
21 |
11 |
17 |
2003 |
14 |
15 |
20 |
2002 |
15 |
16 |
18 |
1993 |
27 |
16 |
6 |
*Competitive states are those in which party advantage in state is within the margin of error for the sample size in that state. |
With only six states falling into the Republican column in 2006, one may wonder why Democrats did not do even better in the 2006 elections. The measures here only take into account respondents' reported partisan leanings. Differences in turnout by partisan groups and candidate- or campaign-specific factors can offset or overcome basic party leanings in an election. To illustrate the point, Democrats enjoyed strong advantages in party identification in the 1970s and 1980s while Republican candidates won four of the five presidential elections during those decades. Since Republicans usually have an advantage in turnout, everything else being equal they should fare better in the competitive states than Democrats.
A total of 12 states showed movement in their classification between 2005 and 2006. Only one of these states -- Louisiana -- did not move in the Democratic direction, with that state going from a Democratic state in 2005 to a competitive state in 2006. No states moved into the Republican column in 2006, but a total of six states moved out of it to being competitive or Democratic-oriented states. The following table summarizes how the different states have been classified in the years in which Gallup has analyzed state-level partisanship.
Party Advantage in U.S. States
|
||||||
State |
1993 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
Alabama |
Dem. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Arizona |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Dem. |
Arkansas |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
California |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Colorado |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Connecticut |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Delaware |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
District of Columbia |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Florida |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Georgia |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Idaho |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Illinois |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Indiana |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Dem. |
Iowa |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Kansas |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Kentucky |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Louisiana |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Maine |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Maryland |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Massachusetts |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Michigan |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Minnesota |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Mississippi |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Missouri |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Montana |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Nebraska |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Nevada |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
New Hampshire |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
New Jersey |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
New Mexico |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
New York |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
North Carolina |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
North Dakota |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Ohio |
Dem. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Oklahoma |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Oregon |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Pennsylvania |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Rhode Island |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
South Carolina |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
South Dakota |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Tennessee |
Dem. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Texas |
Dem. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Utah |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Vermont |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Virginia |
Comp. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Washington |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
West Virginia |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Wisconsin |
Dem. |
Comp. |
Comp. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Dem. |
Wyoming |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
Rep. |
The following table shows the 2006 party support estimates in the states. States in which Gallup completed fewer than 100 interviews in 2006 are omitted from the table since the estimates have a high degree of error associated with them. The analysis shows that states in New England tend to be the most Democratic, including Rhode Island, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska showed the strongest Republican support in 2006. The most competitive states were Colorado, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama.
Partisanship in U.S. States
|
|||||
State |
Dem./
|
Ind.
|
Rep./
|
Dem. -
|
Class-
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Rhode Island |
66 |
8 |
26 |
40 |
Dem. |
Vermont |
64 |
9 |
27 |
37 |
Dem. |
Massachusetts |
63 |
8 |
29 |
34 |
Dem. |
Connecticut |
61 |
11 |
29 |
32 |
Dem. |
Arkansas |
60 |
6 |
34 |
26 |
Dem. |
Maine |
58 |
10 |
32 |
26 |
Dem. |
New York |
58 |
8 |
34 |
24 |
Dem. |
West Virginia |
58 |
8 |
34 |
24 |
Dem. |
Maryland |
58 |
7 |
35 |
23 |
Dem. |
New Hampshire |
55 |
12 |
33 |
22 |
Dem. |
Missouri |
55 |
8 |
37 |
18 |
Dem. |
Washington |
54 |
10 |
36 |
18 |
Dem. |
Michigan |
52 |
11 |
37 |
15 |
Dem. |
Ohio |
53 |
8 |
39 |
15 |
Dem. |
New Jersey |
52 |
10 |
38 |
14 |
Dem. |
Illinois |
52 |
9 |
39 |
13 |
Dem. |
Kentucky |
54 |
6 |
41 |
13 |
Dem. |
New Mexico |
54 |
5 |
41 |
13 |
Dem. |
Minnesota |
53 |
6 |
41 |
12 |
Dem. |
California |
51 |
8 |
40 |
11 |
Dem. |
Florida |
51 |
9 |
40 |
11 |
Dem. |
Iowa |
51 |
10 |
40 |
11 |
Dem. |
North Carolina |
52 |
7 |
41 |
11 |
Dem. |
Oregon |
49 |
12 |
39 |
10 |
Dem. |
Virginia |
51 |
8 |
41 |
10 |
Dem. |
Nevada |
48 |
12 |
40 |
8 |
Dem. |
Pennsylvania |
50 |
9 |
42 |
8 |
Dem. |
Indiana |
49 |
10 |
42 |
7 |
Dem. |
Oklahoma |
50 |
7 |
43 |
7 |
Dem. |
Arizona |
50 |
6 |
44 |
6 |
Dem. |
Wisconsin |
49 |
9 |
42 |
6 |
Dem. |
Montana |
47 |
11 |
42 |
5 |
Comp. |
Georgia |
48 |
8 |
44 |
4 |
Comp. |
Kansas |
48 |
8 |
44 |
4 |
Comp. |
Alabama |
49 |
5 |
46 |
3 |
Comp. |
Louisiana |
47 |
10 |
44 |
3 |
Comp. |
Tennessee |
47 |
9 |
44 |
3 |
Comp. |
Colorado |
47 |
7 |
46 |
1 |
Comp. |
Mississippi |
44 |
7 |
49 |
-5 |
Comp. |
South Dakota |
41 |
11 |
48 |
-7 |
Comp. |
South Carolina |
44 |
6 |
50 |
-7 |
Rep. |
Texas |
42 |
8 |
50 |
-8 |
Rep. |
Nebraska |
37 |
9 |
55 |
-18 |
Rep. |
Idaho |
35 |
11 |
54 |
-19 |
Rep. |
Utah |
33 |
6 |
62 |
-29 |
Rep. |
*Note: Gallup does not interview in Alaska and Hawaii. Estimates for Delaware (Democratic), North Dakota (competitive), Wyoming (Republican), and District of Columbia (Democratic) are omitted due to small sample sizes. |
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with randomly selected national samples of adults, aged 18 and older, conducted in 2006, totaling 30,655 interviews. Margins of error vary by state depending on the number of completed interviews. States with 1,000 or more interviews have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. States with 600 to 999 interviews have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points. States with 400 to 599 interviews have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentages points. States with fewer than 400 interviews have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points or greater.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.