February Economic Ratings Settle Down After January Uptick

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans' views of the U.S. economy, after having jumped into significantly more positive territory in January, have settled back down to where they were at the end of 2006. Forty-three percent of Americans now rate the current economy as "excellent" or "good," down nine points from January, but roughly equal to December's reading. Just more than half of Americans continue to say the U.S. economy is getting worse, little changed in recent months, and 45% say now is a good time to find a quality job.

Current Economic Ratings

According to the Feb. 1-4 Gallup Poll, 43% of Americans describe the current economic conditions in the country as "excellent" (8%) or "good" (35%). Forty-one percent say the economy is "only fair" and 16% say it is "poor."

These readings represent a decline from the significantly more positive readings of the economy last month, when 52% of Americans described conditions as excellent or good. In essence, the February results have settled back down to levels Gallup measured in late 2006.

Still, the latest ratings of the economy are slightly more positive than those measured throughout much of last year. Across 14 polls conducted in 2006 in which Gallup asked Americans to rate current economic conditions, the percentage of Americans saying the economy was excellent or good averaged 38%, with a low of 29% and a high of 44%.

The February data show a decline in ratings of the current economy across all three partisan groups.

Sixty-nine percent of Republicans are positive in their assessments of the economy, compared with 36% of independents and 30% of Democrats.

Republicans' and independents' ratings of the economy declined over the past month and are back to levels found in late 2006. Democrats are also less positive about the economy this month, but are still more positive than they were late last year.

Economic Outlook

There has been little change in Americans' attitudes about the economy's direction in recent months. Even last month, when Americans were more positive about the current economy, attitudes about the economy's direction had remained more negative, as they are now.

Thirty-eight percent of Americans say the economy is "getting better," while more than half of Americans (52%) say it is "getting worse." These results have been quite stable since the midterm congressional elections in November 2006, but perceptions about the economy's direction are slightly more positive now than they were throughout much of last year. In 2006, an average of 32% said the economy was getting better; this percentage ranged between 22% and 41% last year.

Republicans continue to be much more positive about the direction of the economy than are independents or Democrats. Over the past month, there has been little change in partisan ratings on this measure of the economy.

Good Time to Find a Quality Job?

Last month, Americans' perceptions of the job market reached their highest point since 2001, when Gallup began asking the question, with 48% saying it was a good time to find a quality job and 47% saying it was a bad time. These perceptions are slightly more negative in the latest poll and are at roughly the same level Gallup measured in December 2006. Forty-five percent of Americans now say it is a good time to find a quality job, and 50% say it is a bad time. The latest results are slightly more positive than ratings in 2006: The "good time" responses averaged 41% last year and the "bad time" averaged 53%.

Republicans have been consistently more likely than independents or Democrats to positively assess the nation's job market. Seventy-two percent of Republicans now say it is a good time to find a quality job, compared with 39% of independents and 31% of Democrats. Over the past month, attitudes among Republicans and Democrats have shown essentially no change, but they have become slightly more negative among independents.

Bottom Line

Americans' views of the economy are clearly more positive now than they have been in previous years of this decade, particularly 2003. But the sharp upward trend found in January of this year -- to the highest levels since the end of the dot-com boom -- has not been sustained in February. Americans did not become more positive in their assessments of the economy's direction in January, and this month's reading on that measure shows little change, either positively or negatively. Other indicators have been showing that perceptions of the U.S. economy are picking up, including the UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism. Thus, it is too soon to dismiss the January readings as a one-time blip until further data are available in the months ahead that will help establish more stable trends.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,007 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-4, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.