Half of Americans Already Tuned In to 2008 Election

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are currently giving as much thought to the 2008 presidential election as they might be expected to give a year from now. Twenty months before the United States selects a new president, the latest USA Today/Gallup poll finds nearly half of Americans (48%) giving "quite a lot" of thought to the next election. This is comparable to the amount of political reflection Americans reported in January 2004 and March 2000 -- less than a year before each of those years' presidential elections.

Gallup did not measure public attention to the 1996 campaign earlier than September of the same year, but today's attention is substantially greater than what Gallup found in January 1992 relative to that year's election.

Gallup has only twice previously measured Americans' attention to the campaign a year or more before an election: in September of 1999 and September of 1979. (This, in itself, underscores how early this year's campaign is getting underway.) In each case, the percentage saying they had given quite a lot of thought to the next election was much lower than the 48% seen today.

Together, a majority of Americans today (51%) are paying quite a lot or some attention to the upcoming election, while slightly fewer (48%) are paying only a little or no attention.

Thus, it seems the 2008 election is sparking an unusual amount of interest from the American public -- unusual, but perhaps not surprising.

For several elections, political observers have talked about a "permanent campaign" (when the first day after an election victory becomes the first day of the next election cycle) emerging. While much of this campaigning is behind the scenes -- strategizing, fundraising, building voter turnout operations -- the candidates are directing more of their preliminary activity to the public than ever before. The candidates are announcing their intentions to run earlier, seeking major media coverage earlier, and participating in candidate debates earlier.

Split Reaction to the Trend

According to the March 2-4, 2007 survey, Americans are about evenly divided over the impact this acceleration of the process is having. When asked whether it is a good or bad thing that the presidential candidates are campaigning earlier for this election than in previous years, 48% of Americans say it is a good thing; 44% call it a bad thing.

Democrats tend to consider the trend a good thing -- possibly because it allows them to look beyond the Bush administration and focus on the prospect of reinstalling a Democrat in the White House. By the same token, Republicans tend to call it a bad thing.

Voter Preferences Still Forming

Though a high number of Americans may be giving advanced thought to the 2008 presidential election, very few have come to a firm conclusion about for whom they will vote.

A random half sample of survey respondents in the latest poll were asked "Have you made up your mind about whom you will support for president in 2008, or not?" To this, only 14% of Americans, including 15% of registered voters, responded affirmatively.

The other half sample was asked "Which of the following best describes you -- [ROTATED: you have a good idea about whom you will support for president in 2008, you have thought about it, but you don't have a good idea yet, or you haven't really thought about whom you will support for president in 2008]?"  

Not many more voters say they have a good idea about who they will vote for (22%) than say they have made up their mind.

Many more Democrats than Republicans (22% vs. 6%, respectively) are willing to say they have made up their minds about who they will vote for. However, the importance of this is unclear, as there is little difference between the parties in the percentages saying they have a good idea about whom they will support: 26% of Democrats vs. 23% of Republicans.

For now, there is relatively little difference in the percentages of Republicans and Democrats who have given the campaign quite a lot of thought (46% vs. 52%). There is a slightly larger gap between conservatives and liberals (46% vs. 57%), but this is about as large as the differences get. Men are slightly more likely than women to have given a lot of though to this year's election (51% vs. 45%), and attention is greater among those in upper-income categories than lower-income categories.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,010 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 2-4, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Looking ahead to the election for president in November 2008,

4. How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president -- quite a lot, or only a little?

5. Have you made up your mind about whom you will support for president in 2008, or not?

            BASED ON 467 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

6. Which of the following best describes you -- [ROTATED: you have a good idea about whom you will support for president in 2008, you have thought about it, but you don't have a good idea yet, or you haven't really thought about whom you will support for president in 2008]?

            BASED ON 543 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

7. Do you think it's a good thing or a bad thing that the presidential candidates are campaigning earlier for this election than for previous elections?