Americans Continue to Be Pessimistic About Middle East Peace

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans remain pessimistic about the prospects for Middle East peace, according to a recent Gallup Poll. Despite much more favorable views of the Israelis than the Palestinians, Americans are only slightly more likely to say the United States should exert more pressure on the Palestinians than on the Israelis to make the necessary compromises to reach a peace agreement. More Americans believe that George W. Bush is not doing enough to find a peaceful solution to the conflict than believe he is.

According to Gallup's annual World Affairs poll, conducted Feb. 1-4, 2007, just 34% of Americans say that there "will come a time when Israel and the Arab nations will be able to settle their differences and live in peace." Sixty-three percent reject this notion.

Last year, just 27% predicted peace could come about, marking the low point in optimism on this 10-year-old Gallup trend question. While Americans have tended to be more pessimistic than optimistic about Middle East peace, there have been times when optimists outnumbered pessimists, usually in response to events. For example, in May 2003, a slight majority of Americans, 51%, thought Arab-Israeli peace was possible just before George W. Bush held high-level talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders to discuss his "road map for peace." That optimism proved to be short-lived, as escalating violence between the two sides soon followed.

Earlier in his presidency, Americans were generally content with the efforts Bush was making to pursue Middle East peace. In June 2002, a Gallup Poll found 61% of Americans saying Bush was doing enough to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while 28% said he was not. Since that time, the Israeli-Palestinian situation has been put on the back burner as the conflict in Iraq has dominated U.S. foreign policy. Now, the latest poll finds a slight majority (51%) saying Bush is not doing enough to find a peaceful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, though 44% still believe he is.

Public Lacks Consensus on Whom to Pressure

Americans' basic views of the conflicting nations are far more pro-Israel than pro-Palestinian, as they have been on every Gallup measure taken in the last 20 years. By a nearly three-to-one margin, Americans say they are more sympathetic to the Israelis (58%) than the Palestinians (20%). Also, 63% say they have a favorable view of Israel compared to just 16% for the Palestinian Authority. Three-quarters of Americans have an unfavorable view of the Palestinian Authority.

Even so, Americans have been reluctant to say that the United States should take Israel's side in negotiations. When asked whether the United States should put more pressure on the Israelis or the Palestinians to "make the necessary compromises" in order to resolve the conflict, almost as many choose the Israelis (30%) as the Palestinians (39%). The remaining 31% do not have an opinion (10%), volunteer that the United States should put more pressure on both sides (11%), or should not put more pressure on either side (10%).

However, there is considerable disagreement on this point among ideological groups. Fifty-four percent of self-identified conservatives say the United States should put more pressure on the Palestinians, while only 19% believe the Israelis should be pressured more. Liberals' views are nearly the opposite -- 49% say they United States should exert more pressure on Israel, while 24% believe the greater pressure should come down on the Palestinians. Moderates are evenly divided in their views.

Conservatives usually show much greater support for Israel than liberals or moderates. In the most recent poll, 75% of conservatives rated Israel favorably, compared with 57% of moderates and 59% of liberals. Also, 72% of conservatives say their sympathies lie with the Israelis over the Palestinians, compared with 57% of moderates and just 42% of liberals.

Americans have long said that Middle East peace should be an important foreign policy goal for the United States. While the current poll does not offer clear guidance on how they prefer the government to approach future negotiations, in the past, Gallup has found that Americans have consistently said that the United States should not take sides in the conflict. The current results fit with that line of thinking.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

27. In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?

28. Do you think there will or will not come a time when Israel and the Arab nations will be able to settle their differences and live in peace?

29. Do you think George W. Bush is -- or is not -- doing enough to find a peaceful solution to the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians?

30. In order to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, do you think the United States should -- [ROTATED: put more pressure on the Palestinians to make the necessary compromises (or) put more pressure on the Israelis to make the necessary compromises]?