GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The two candidates for Hong Kong's next chief executive may have borrowed pages from the democratic playbook for their campaigns -- squaring off in debates and making promises -- but there won't be any crowd participation in the big game, and the winner is likely already decided. This Sunday, an 800-member election committee, rather than Hong Kong voters, is widely expected to return Chief Executive Donald Tsang to head the government of this Special Administrative Region of China.
Last Sunday, several thousand pro-democratic protesters marched in Hong Kong, demanding direct elections they believe their mini-constitution promises them. Beijing has said this would happen eventually, but has not set a timetable. However, if Tsang keeps the campaign promise he made this week to find a final solution, universal suffrage may be achieved by 2012.
The Gallup Poll of Hong Kong was conducted in mid-December through mid-January, shortly after Tsang and pro-democracy candidate Alan Leong were nominated to face off this weekend. The poll's results reflect a citizenry that is confident in its current leadership. Roughly two-thirds say they are confident in their national government (66%) and approve of their leaders (64%). And although the survey did not ask Hong Kong residents about their attitudes toward suffrage, 65% did say they were confident in the honesty of elections.
Younger Hong Kong residents are more likely than are older residents to place more faith, or hope, in the honesty of elections. Seventy-three percent of Hong Kong residents in the 15 to 29 age group express confidence in elections, versus 58% of residents who are 50 and older.
Hong Kong residents' optimism about the city's economy may factor into their confidence levels. With a per capita GDP that rivals those of many large economies in Western Europe and declining unemployment, 70% of Hong Kong residents say economic conditions are good, a majority (52%) say their standard of living is getting better, and 62% say economic conditions are getting better. Hong Kong's younger residents are significantly more likely than its oldest residents to say economic conditions are good and to say their standard of living is improving.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted between Dec. 15, 2006, and Jan. 15, 2007, with a randomly selected sample of 793 Hong Kong residents, aged 15 and older. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.