Giuliani and McCain Maintain Hold on Top Two Positions in GOP Field

by Lydia Saad

Fred Thompson, Romney, and Gingrich jockeying for third

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to hold first place in the race for the Republican 2008 presidential nomination with a slightly better than 10-point lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, 35% to 22%. After a brief expansion of Giuliani's lead over McCain earlier this month, the race is essentially back to where it was in late March.

The latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted April 13-15, 2007, finds three other candidates jockeying for third place, only one of whom -- former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- is an announced candidate. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is closely matched with Romney. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who is openly contemplating a run, is also a contender for third. All other Republicans included in the trial heat question receive 2% or less support from Republicans.

 

Republican Preference for 2008 GOP Presidential Nomination

Apr 13-15, 2007

Apr 2-5, 2007

Mar 23-25, 2007

Mar 2-4, 2007

Feb 9-11, 2007

Jan 12-14, 2007

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudy Giuliani

35

38

31

44

40

31

John McCain

22

16

22

20

24

27

Fred Thompson

10

10

12

N/A

N/A

N/A

Mitt Romney

9

6

3

8

5

7

Newt Gingrich

7

10

8

9

9

10

N/A = Not asked

The significance of Romney's current 9% level of support is unclear. Romney has fluctuated between the low and high single digits since January; he was at 8% in early March before falling to 3% in late March. Although his early fundraising success has given his candidacy considerable credibility at this stage of the campaign, Romney will need to sustain support near and above the 10% level before establishing himself as a real threat to the top candidates.

There have been no major changes since early April in the relative positioning of the major candidates when factoring in Republicans' second choices for the nomination. Six in 10 Republicans (including independents who lean to the Republican Party) name Giuliani as either their first or second choice; about 4 in 10 name McCain. Thompson is mentioned by 19%, Gingrich by 16%, and Romney by 15%.

Even with two opportunities to be chosen, 8 of the 13 candidates listed on Gallup's latest trial heat are named by less than 10% of Republicans. This group is led by former New York Gov. George Pataki with 6%, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson with 4%, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 4%.

 

Combined First/Second Choice for GOP Nomination
(Based on Republicans/Republican Leaners)
April 13-15, 2007

%

Rudy Giuliani

61

John McCain

41

Fred Thompson

19

Newt Gingrich

16

Mitt Romney

15

George Pataki

6

Tommy Thompson

4

Mike Huckabee

4

Ron Paul

3

Jim Gilmore

2

Sam Brownback

1

Tom Tancredo

1

Duncan Hunter

1

Giuliani has led the Republican field in every Gallup trial heat this year, though to varying degrees. Since March, his lead has varied from 9 to 24 percentage points due mostly to fluctuations in support for his own candidacy: the percentage choosing him has ranged from 31% to 44%, while support for McCain has been more consistent in the 16% to 22% range.

 

Jan. 12-14

Feb. 9-11

March 2-4

March 23-25

Apr. 2-5

Apr. 13-15

%

%

%

%

%

%

Giuliani

31

40

44

31

38

35

McCain

27

24

20

22

16

22

Giuliani lead

4

16

24

9

22

13

Despite the volatility of Giuliani's lead in the full trial heat, there has been little change in his dominance over McCain when Republicans are asked to choose between these two candidates in a head-to-head match-up. Giuliani currently leads McCain by 18 points on this measure, one point below his average lead across five measures taken since February.

One-Third Wish Someone Else Would Run

Six in 10 Republicans say they are pleased with the selection of candidates definitely running for the Republican nomination at this point. So far, Giuliani, McCain, Romney, Tommy Thompson, Huckabee, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, and California Rep. Duncan Hunter have announced their intention to run, either officially or unofficially. It does not include Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore who has thus far has only filed an exploratory committee, nor Gingrich, Pataki, Fred Thompson, or Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel -- all of whom have indicated an interest in running, but none of whom has taken formal action to establish his candidacy.

One-third of Republicans say they wish someone else would get into the GOP race, but it is not clear what these potential voters are looking for in such a candidate. That compares with only 18% of Democrats who want another candidate to jump into their race.

With Giuliani and McCain both having difficulty burnishing their conservative credentials, particularly on social issues, one might assume that conservative Republicans are especially anxious to have someone else enter the fray. However, moderate and conservative Republicans are similar on this question, with conservatives only slightly more likely to say they wish someone else would run (34% vs. 27%).

Not much more differentiation is seen according to Republicans' stance on the Iraq war. The desire for an alternative candidate is only 10 points higher among the minority of Republicans who consider sending troops to Iraq a mistake than it is among the larger group that defends the administration's position on Iraq (50% vs. 40%).

Most Republicans who say they wish someone else would run are nevertheless able to name someone from the current list who they say they would support for the nomination next year. Only 6% have no opinion or say "none of the above." Also, the basic rank order of candidates is the same among this group as it is among those who say they are pleased with the current selection.

The most notable difference is in the percentages naming Fred Thompson as their first choice for the nomination: 14% of those who want someone else to run name him, compared with 9% of those who are pleased with the existing field. Also, although Giuliani ranks first among those wanting someone else to run, it is with a somewhat lower 30% than the 37% he receives from Republicans who are satisfied with the field. However, due to the relatively small sample sizes used in this analysis, none of these differences are statistically significant.

 

 

Pleased

Want someone else

Announced

%

%

Giuliani

37

30

McCain

23

22

Romney

11

9

Tommy Thompson

1

1

Huckabee

3

1

Paul

2

1

Brownback

*

1

Tancredo

0

1

Hunter

*

1

     

Not announced

   

Fred Thompson

9

14

Gingrich

7

9

Gilmore

2

4

Pataki

2

1

Hagel

0

0

* = Less than 0.5%

 

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,007 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 13-15, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

8. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

[ROTATED: Kansas Senator, Sam Brownback; Former Virginia Governor, Jim Gilmore; Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich; Former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani; Nebraska Senator, Chuck Hagel; Former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee; California Congressman, Duncan Hunter; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Former New York Governor, George Pataki; Former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney; Colorado Congressman, Tom Tancredo; Former Wisconsin Governor, Tommy Thompson; Former Tennessee Senator, Fred Thompson; Texas Congressman, Ron Paul]

BASED ON 441 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

 

Apr 13-15, 2007

Apr 2-5, 2007

Mar 23-25, 2007

Mar 2-4, 2007

Feb 9-11, 2007

Jan 12-14, 2007

%

%

%

%

%

%

Rudy Giuliani

35

38

31

44

40

31

John McCain

22

16

22

20

24

27

Fred Thompson

10

10

12

N/A

N/A

N/A

Mitt Romney

9

6

3

8

5

7

Newt Gingrich

7

10

8

9

9

10

Jim Gilmore

2

*

*

*

2

2

Mike Huckabee

2

1

1

*

2

1

George Pataki

2

2

*

1

1

3

Ron Paul

2

2

1

N/A

N/A

N/A

Tommy Thompson

1

2

2

2

2

2

Sam Brownback

1

1

3

1

3

1

Tom Tancredo

*

2

1

1

1

N/A

Duncan Hunter

*

1

*

1

1

*

Chuck Hagel

--

1

*

*

1

1

Other

1

1

2

2

1

3

None

2

2

3

3

2

3

All/any

--

*

1

*

--

--

No opinion

3

4

9

8

7

10

N/A = Not asked

Contact Gallup for full trend.

* = Less than 0.5%

Republican Presidential Nomination Preference (Without Newt Gingrich):

 

Apr 13-15, 2007

Apr 2-5, 2007

Mar 23-25, 2007

Mar 2-4, 2007

Feb 9-11, 2007

%

%

%

%

%

Rudy Giuliani

38

42

34

49

42

John McCain

24

18

22

21

25

Fred Thompson

11

12

13

N/A

N/A

Mitt Romney

10

7

4

10

6

Jim Gilmore

2

*

1

*

2

George Pataki

2

2

*

1

1

Mike Huckabee

2

1

2

1

2

Ron Paul

2

2

1

N/A

N/A

Tommy Thompson

1

3

2

2

2

Sam Brownback

1

1

3

1

4

Duncan Hunter

1

1

1

1

2

Tom Tancredo

*

2

1

1

2

Chuck Hagel

--

1

*

*

1

Other

1

1

2

2

2

None

2

2

4

3

2

All/any

--

*

1

*

--

No opinion

4

5

9

8

8

Note: Ballot recalculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for their Gingrich vote

* = Less than 0.5%

N/A = Not asked

9. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party who named a candidate they support for the Republican nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.8-9): FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES

BASED ON 441 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

 

Apr 13-15,2007

Apr 2-5, 2007

Mar 23-25, 2007

Mar 2-4, 2007

Feb 9-11, 2007

%

%

%

%

%

Rudy Giuliani

61

62

57

64

62

John McCain

41

39

38

42

47

Fred Thompson

19

16

16

N/A

N/A

Newt Gingrich

16

19

15

21

18

Mitt Romney

15

12

9

14

11

George Pataki

6

4

2

5

4

Tommy Thompson

4

6

5

4

3

Mike Huckabee

4

3

3

3

3

Ron Paul

3

5

2

N/A

N/A

Jim Gilmore

2

*

1

1

2

Sam Brownback

1

2

4

2

4

Tom Tancredo

1

3

1

2

2

Duncan Hunter

1

1

1

1

4

Chuck Hagel

*

2

1

1

1

Other

2

3

3

3

5

None

6

4

7

1

3

All/any

--

*

1

--

--

No opinion

3

4

9

10

9

Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.

N/A = Not asked

* = Less than 0.5%

10. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Given your understanding of who is definitely running for the Republican nomination for president, are you generally pleased with that selection of candidates, or do you wish someone else would get into the race?

BASED ON 441 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

 

 

Pleased with selection

Wish someone else would get into race

No opinion

       

2007 Apr 13-15

61%

33

7

11. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Suppose the choice for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Senator John McCain. Which one would you prefer the Republican Party nominate for president -- [ROTATED: Rudy Giuliani (or) John McCain]?

BASED ON 441 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

 

 

Giuliani

McCain

No opinion

 

%

%

%

2007 Apr 13-15

57

39

4

       

2007 Apr 2-5

57

38

6

2007 Mar 23-25

54

39

7

2007 Mar 2-4

58

34

8

2007 Feb 9-11

57

39

4

2007 Jan 5-7

50

42

8

Get Articles in Related Topics:


Gallup http://www.gallup.com/poll/27271/Giuliani-McCain-Maintain-Hold-Top-Two-Positions-GOP-Field.aspx
Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A
+1 202.715.3030