Public Slightly More Positive About the Job Market So Far This Year

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's annual Economy and Personal Finance poll finds some positive signs about Americans' perceptions of the job market. Even though Americans remain divided as to whether now is a good time or a bad time to find a quality job, this assessment of the job market has generally been more positive in 2007 than at any other point since Gallup started tracking this measure in 2001. Half of Americans say they know someone who has lost their job in the past six months, and while this percentage may seem high, it marks a continued decline in this perception since 2003. Few workers expect to lose their job in the next year, but most say they are likely to find just as good a job as they have right now if they were to get laid off. This concern about being laid off has been consistent over the past three decades.

Good Time to Find a Quality Job?

The April 2-5, 2007 poll shows that 46% of Americans say now is a good time to find a quality job, while 49% say it is a bad time. Americans' perceptions of the job market have been stable over the past three months, and have generally been more positive this year than at any time since Gallup first asked the question in August 2001. (From 1998 through 2000, the Center for Survey Research and Analysis at the University of Connecticut and the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University asked this question of adults employed full- or part-time and unemployed adults who were looking for work. Perceptions of the job market were highest during this time period, when between 69% and 78% said it was a good time to find a quality job).

An analysis of the yearly averages on this "good time to find a quality job" measure further illustrates this point. Fewer than 3 in 10 Americans, on average, said it was a good time to find a quality job from 2001 through 2003. Since then, this percentage has gradually increased -- to an average of 32% in 2004, then to 37% in 2005, 41% in 2006, and now 46% in the first four months of 2007.

There is little difference in views of the job market between the overall national population and those who are employed full- or part-time. Forty-nine percent of this latter group says it is a good time to find a quality job, while 47% say it is a bad time. These results among working adults show only modest variations over the course of the year.

Layoffs

Half of Americans say they personally know someone "who has been laid off or lost their job within the last six months," while half do not. The percentage of Americans saying they know someone who has been laid off has been slowly and gradually declining over the past four years, decreasing from a high of 63% in 2003 to 50% in the latest poll.

Gallup has asked this question, or a similar version about "recent" layoffs, several times over the past 17 years. The percentage of Americans saying they know someone who has lost their job has averaged 54%, with a low of 43% in August 2001 and a high of 63% in April 2003.

The latest results are not much different among American workers as compared with the total national population. Fifty-two percent of workers say they know someone who has lost their job in the last six months, while 48% say they do not. Fewer workers say they know someone who has been laid off this year in comparison with recent years. At least 6 in 10 workers said they knew someone who lost their job from 2003 through 2006.

Likelihood of Losing Your Job and Finding a New Job

One of Gallup's longest trends on unemployment asks workers whether it is very likely, fairly likely, not too likely, or not at all likely that they will lose their job or be laid off over the next 12 months. Only 12% of workers in the early April poll say it is very or fairly likely that they will lose their job in the next year, while 31% say it is not too likely and 57% say it is not at all likely.

This measure has shown remarkably little variation over time. Since 1975, an average of 13% of workers have said it is very or fairly likely that they will lose their job, with a high of 19% in November 1982 and a low of 9% in June 1997. More than half of workers have consistently said it is not at all likely that they will lose their job.

Workers are confident that they would be able to find a job just as good as their current job if they were laid off or fired. Sixty-four percent of workers say this is at least somewhat likely, while roughly one in three say it is not likely.

In the four times Gallup has asked this question since 2001, at least 6 in 10 workers have said it is very or somewhat likely that they would find just as good a job if they were laid off.

Partisanship and the Job Market

Democrats (including independents who lean toward the Democratic Party) are much more negative than Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) in their views of the nation's job market.

• Two in three Republicans (66%) say now is a good time to find a quality job, compared with just 28% of Democrats. These results are also very similar among those who are employed full- or part-time: 68% of Republican workers and 31% of Democratic workers say now is a good time to find a quality job.

• Democrats are much more likely than Republicans, by a 59% to 39% margin, to say they know someone who has been laid off in the past six months. Among employed adults, 61% of Democrats and just 42% of Republicans say they know someone who has lost their job recently.

• Seventeen percent of Democratic workers say it is very or fairly likely that they will lose their job in the next 12 months, much higher than the 6% among Republican workers. It is important to note that the vast majority of both groups say it is not likely that they will lose their job in the next 12 months.

• In the event that they lost the job, 52% of Democratic workers say they would be able to find a job just as good as their current job. The percentage is higher, at 76%, among Republican workers.

These differences in views of the job market by partisanship are driven to a significant degree by the underlying negativity of the party that is not in control the White House -- the Democrats -- about many aspects of the state of the nation today. For example, 47% of Republicans say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, compared with only 21% of Democrats. At the end of Bill Clinton's presidency in 2000, Democrats (61%) expressed a higher level of satisfaction than Republicans (40%).

At the same time, Democrats in general have lower incomes than Republicans, which may also make them more negative about the job market.

In this poll, 36% of Republicans reside in households earning $75,000 or more, while 38% reside in households earning between $30,000 and $75,000 per year and 19% reside in household earning less than $30,000 per year. Among Democrats, 23% live in households earning $75,000 or more annually, while 40% live in households earning between $30,000 and $75,000 and 30% in households earning less than that.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,008 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 2-5, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 533 adults employed full or part-time, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.