GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gun owners are a powerful force in American politics, and their influence is evident in both the legislative and electoral processes. In general, more gun owners identify as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party (53%) than identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party (39%), but there are enough gun owners in each party to make them a force in either party's primaries and caucuses. An analysis of recent Gallup polling suggests that gun owners could be a considerable factor in the Republican nomination process, but less so in the Democratic process. Although Rudy Giuliani is the front-runner for the GOP nomination, Republican gun owners are less likely than non-owners to support him. On the Democratic side, both gun owners and non-owners rate Hillary Clinton as their top choice for the party's presidential nomination by similar margins over the rest of the Democratic contenders.
In two polls conducted this month, Gallup asked partisans their preferences for their party's 2008 presidential nomination and whether they personally own any type of gun. According to the polls, roughly one in three Americans are gun owners, including 41% of Republicans and 24% of Democrats.
Republican Nomination
Since February, Giuliani has been the established front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. In the combined May data on rank-and-file Republicans' nomination preferences, he has a 32% to 21% edge over John McCain, and at least a 20 percentage-point advantage over every other candidate.
However, among Republican gun owners, Giuliani's front-running status is not as secure. Twenty-six percent of Republican gun owners say Giuliani is their first choice for the nomination, but 22% choose McCain, meaning the candidates are essentially tied, given the margin of error. Fred Thompson -- the former Tennessee senator who has not yet decided whether to enter the race -- would appear to be a relatively strong candidate among Republican gun owners because he is named as the top choice by 18% of this group. Mitt Romney's and Newt Gingrich's support among gun owners falls just shy of double digits, and all other candidates are at 2% or below.
|
Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nominee,
|
|||
|
All
|
Gun
|
Non-
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
32 |
26 |
37 |
|
John McCain |
21 |
22 |
21 |
|
Fred Thompson |
12 |
18 |
7 |
|
Mitt Romney |
8 |
9 |
7 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
7 |
8 |
5 |
|
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
Sam Brownback |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
1 |
2 |
* |
|
George Pataki |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Duncan Hunter |
1 |
1 |
* |
|
Tom Tancredo |
1 |
1 |
* |
|
Chuck Hagel |
1 |
1 |
-- |
|
Jim Gilmore |
* |
-- |
1 |
|
Ron Paul |
* |
* |
-- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other/No opinion |
13 |
8 |
16 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||
While the views of Republican gun owners and non-owners are similar for most of the candidates, there are differences in support for Giuliani and Thompson. Giuliani's support is 11 points higher among non-owners, while Thompson does better among gun owners by that same margin.
Giuliani's slightly weaker position among gun owners is also evident when looking at preferences between the former New York City mayor and McCain in a one-on-one matchup. Giuliani's 54% to 40% advantage over McCain among all Republicans shrinks to 50% to 45% among Republican gun owners.
Democratic Nomination
While gun owners are typically aligned with the Republican Party, the fact that nearly one in four Democrats and Democratic leaners own a gun means they are not an insignificant Democratic constituency.
Clinton has a solid lead over Barack Obama, 36% to 24%, among all Democrats in the combined May polls. Her lead is similar among Democratic gun owners (13 points, 32% to 19%) and non-owners (11 points, 37% to 26%). Her support is slightly higher among non-owners than gun owners, but the difference is not statistically meaningful.
|
Preference for 2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee,
|
|||
|
All
|
Gun
|
Non-
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
36 |
32 |
37 |
|
Barack Obama |
24 |
19 |
26 |
|
Al Gore |
15 |
14 |
15 |
|
John Edwards |
12 |
17 |
10 |
|
Bill Richardson |
2 |
4 |
2 |
|
Joe Biden |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
Wesley Clark |
1 |
2 |
* |
|
Christopher Dodd |
1 |
* |
1 |
|
Al Sharpton |
1 |
* |
1 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
-- |
1 |
|
Mike Gravel |
* |
* |
-- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other/No opinion |
6 |
8 |
5 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||
In general, Democrats' nomination preferences are similar among gun owners and non-owners. Obama does slightly better among non-owners and John Edwards among gun owners, but those differences are not statistically significant.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 2,013 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 4-6 and May 10-13, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.
Results for the sample of 670 gun owners have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points.
Results for the sample of 1,314 gun non-owners have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points.
Results for the sample of 856 Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points.
Results for the sample of 980 Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points.
Results for the sample of 368 Republicans and Republican leaners who own a gun have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.
Results for the sample of 468 Republicans and Republican leaners who do not own a gun have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.
Results for the sample of 247 Democrats and Democratic leaners who own a gun have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±7 percentage points.
Results for the sample of 729 Democrats and Democratic leaners who do not own a gun have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
