Public Gives Clinton, Giuliani Best Odds of Winning Nominations

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A recent Gallup Panel survey asked a representative sample of Americans to assess how much of a chance each of the leading presidential candidates has of winning their party's 2008 presidential nomination. The vast majority of the public thinks Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have an excellent or good chance of being the Democrats' 2008 nominee, with Clinton given slightly better odds. Only about one in three Americans believes that reluctant candidate Al Gore would have a good chance should he enter the race. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is rated as having the best chance of winning that party's nomination, while a majority also says John McCain has a good chance.  

Clinton and Giuliani have consistently led in party preference polls for the 2008 nominations, so the perceptions that they have the best chances of winning are in line with their current "front-runner" status. 

Respondents to the May 21-24 survey were asked the following question -- separately for each party -- about the leading candidates' chances of winning that party's nomination:

Next, I'm going to read some names of people currently running or considering a run for the [Democratic/Republican] presidential nomination. Regardless of how you might feel about the person personally, please say whether, from what you have read and heard, you think each has an excellent chance, a good chance, only a slim chance, or no chance at all of winning the [Democratic/Republican] nomination for president in 2008. How about -- [candidates names read in random order]?

Clinton is the Democratic candidate who is viewed as having the best shot of winning the party's 2008 nomination, with 83% of Americans saying she has an excellent (29%) or good (54%) chance. Slightly fewer Americans, 77%, say Obama has an excellent or good chance of winning the nomination. John Edwards is the only other candidate of the six Democrats tested that a majority of respondents rate as having a good chance. 

Just 35% of Americans believe Gore would have a good chance of being the Democratic nominee should he enter the race, despite organized efforts underway to encourage him to run. The public views Bill Richardson and Joe Biden as long shots, though most give them at least a slim chance of winning rather than no chance at all. These latter two candidates are relatively unknown, so that may play into their lower scores in addition to their typically weak performances in preference polls. 

Perceived Chances of Winning the Democratic Presidential Nomination in 2008

In general, self-identified Democrats give the Democratic candidates better odds of winning that party's nomination than do those who identify as Republicans or independents. Republicans and Democrats differ most in their views of Gore's chances -- 47% of Democrats say he has at least a good chance of being the Democratic nominee, compared with only 23% of Republicans. That less than half of Democrats think Gore has a good chance of winning the nomination is notable and is a perception he would have to change to be competitive in the primaries. There is relatively little variation by party affiliation in perceptions of Obama's chances compared with the partisan variation for most other candidates.

Perceived Chances of Winning Democratic Presidential Nomination, by Party Affiliation

Among the GOP candidates, Giuliani is rated the most likely to win the nomination, as 76% of Americans say he has an excellent (22%) or good (54%) chance. A majority also gives McCain better-than-average odds of headlining the 2008 Republican ticket, as 60% say he has an excellent or good chance. 

None of the other four Republican candidates tested was rated as having a good chance by a majority of Americans, including Mitt Romney (42%), Fred Thompson (32%), Newt Gingrich (28%), and Sam Brownback (12%). Only Gingrich is well known among these candidates, and his ratings are much more negative than positive. The weaker showings of Romney, Thompson, and Brownback could be attributed to their still being unknown to many Americans.  [Note: The poll was conducted before Thompson announced earlier this week that he was forming an exploratory committee to raise money for a possible bid.]   

Perceived Chances of Winning the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2008

The same party effects previously mentioned are evident in ratings of the Republican candidates -- with Republicans generally viewing their party's candidates as having better chances than do either Democrats or independents. There are typically double-digit gaps between the percentage of Republicans and Democrats who believe each Republican candidate has an excellent or good chance of winning the party's nomination. The gap is larger in ratings of Gingrich's chances -- 39% of Republicans think he has a good chance, compared with 18% of Democrats. 

Perceived Chances of Winning Republican Presidential Nomination, by Party Affiliation

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup Panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,007 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 21-24, 2007. Gallup panel members are recruited through random selection methods. The panel is weighted so that it is demographically representative of the U.S. adult population. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

As you may know, both the Republican and Democratic parties will decide their nominees for president in the caucuses and primaries early next year.

Q.5-6 ROTATED

5. Next, I'm going to read some names of people currently running or considering a run for the Democratic presidential nomination.  Regardless of how you might feel about the person personally, please say whether, from what you have read and heard, you think each has an excellent chance, a good chance, only a slim chance, or no chance at all of winning the Democratic nomination for president in 2008.  How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

Full Results:

A. Delaware Senator, Joe Biden

B. New York Senator, Hillary Clinton

C. Former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards

D. Former Vice President, Al Gore

E. Illinois Senator, Barack Obama

F. New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson

6. Next, I'm going to read some names of people currently running or considering a run for the Republican presidential nomination.  Regardless of how you might feel about the person personally, please say whether, from what you have read and heard, you think each has an excellent chance, a good chance, only a slim chance, or no chance at all of winning the Republican nomination for president in 2008.  How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

Full Results:

A. Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich

B. Former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani

C. Arizona Senator, John McCain

D. Former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney          

E. Former Tennessee Senator, Fred Thompson

F. Kansas Senator, Sam Brownback