GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama essentially tied as Democrats' choice for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008. Clinton has generally held a considerable lead over Obama in most USA Today/Gallup polls this year, although Clinton's lead diminished in mid-April before rebounding in May. Republicans continue to support former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani to win the Republican nomination for president next year, with little significant change in the structure of the GOP race.
The poll was conducted June 1-3, 2007, and almost all of the interviews were completed prior to the Democratic candidate debate held in New Hampshire on Sunday, June 3. Republican candidates will debate one another in New Hampshire on Tuesday night, June 5.
Democratic Nomination Trial Heats
The poll asked Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party who they are most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president next year. Obama and Clinton are now tied, with 30% supporting Obama and 29% supporting Clinton. Seventeen percent of Democrats support former Vice President Al Gore for the nomination, and 11% support former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. No other candidate registers better than 3% support.
(Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.
[ROTATED: Delaware Senator, Joe Biden; New York Senator, Hillary Clinton; Connecticut Senator, Christopher Dodd; Former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards; Former Vice President, Al Gore; Former Alaska Senator, Mike Gravel; Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich; Illinois Senator, Barack Obama; New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson]
|
Jun
|
May
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
Jan
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Barack Obama |
30 |
26 |
23 |
26 |
19 |
22 |
22 |
21 |
18 |
|
Hillary Clinton |
29 |
35 |
38 |
31 |
38 |
35 |
36 |
40 |
29 |
|
Al Gore |
17 |
16 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
14 |
11 |
|
John Edwards |
11 |
12 |
12 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
9 |
13 |
13 |
|
Bill Richardson |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
|
Joe Biden |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
|
Mike Gravel |
* |
-- |
* |
1 |
1 |
-- |
1 |
* |
N/A |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
-- |
* |
* |
|
Christopher Dodd |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
-- |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
Wesley Clark |
N/A |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
Al Sharpton |
N/A |
1 |
-- |
2 |
* |
-- |
* |
-- |
1 |
|
Tom Vilsack |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
* |
* |
|
John Kerry |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
2 |
* |
1 |
* |
2 |
|
None |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
All/any |
* |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
* |
-- |
* |
|
No opinion |
2 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||||||
|
N/A Not asked |
|||||||||
|
Contact Gallup for full trend |
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Clinton has been the top choice to win the nomination throughout the entire year prior to this poll, with Obama normally her closest competitor. In Gallup's previous poll, conducted May 10-13, Clinton bested Obama, 35% to 26%. In a technical sense, neither Clinton's drop of 6 percentage points nor Obama's gain of 4 points are statistically significant, given the relatively small sample size of less than 500 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents interviewed in each poll.
Because the changes are within the poll's margin of sampling error, it is unclear if Clinton has ceded her front-running status for co-front-runner status -- future polling will help confirm that. Indeed, earlier this year Obama appeared to be closing to within 5 points when the candidates' first quarter fund raising totals were announced. But the next poll, conducted after the initial candidate debate, showed Clinton pulling back ahead. While much of the movement in Democrats' preferences has occurred between Clinton and Obama, support for Gore, Edwards, and the other candidates has not changed much in recent months. Clinton's support has ranged from a low of 29% (in the current poll) to a high of 40%, while support for Obama has fluctuated from 18% to a high of 30% in the current poll.
For the first time, a majority of Democrats list Obama as their first or second choice for the nomination. Clinton -- who has been above 50% on this measure all year -- still edges Obama in the current poll, 56% to 51%. Gore is the first or second choice for 33% of Democrats, while 25% of Democrats say Edwards is their first or second option.
(Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party who named a candidate they support for the Democratic nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice?
COMBINED RESPONSES: FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES
|
Jun
|
May
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
56 |
59 |
60 |
58 |
58 |
57 |
59 |
67 |
|
Barack Obama |
51 |
47 |
46 |
46 |
36 |
42 |
43 |
42 |
|
Al Gore |
33 |
30 |
31 |
28 |
29 |
32 |
34 |
26 |
|
John Edwards |
25 |
24 |
29 |
32 |
32 |
30 |
21 |
26 |
|
Bill Richardson |
7 |
8 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
|
Joe Biden |
5 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Christopher Dodd |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Mike Gravel |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
Wesley Clark |
N/A |
3 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
Al Sharpton |
N/A |
3 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Tom Vilsack |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
3 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
None |
6 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
|
All/any |
* |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
-- |
|
No opinion |
2 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
7 |
4 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
||||||||
|
Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses. |
||||||||
|
N/A: Not asked |
||||||||
Clinton also maintains a slight, but not statistically significant, 49% to 46% lead over Obama in a hypothetical one-to-one match-up between the two leading Democrats. Prior to this poll, a majority of Democrats consistently said Clinton was their choice if the race narrowed down to Clinton and Obama.
Republican Nomination Trial Heats
Giuliani continues to be the top choice for Republicans, with 32% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents supporting him. Following Giuliani is Arizona Sen. John McCain, at 19%, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, at 12%, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, at 11%, and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, at 8%. No other Republican candidate scores higher than 2% in the poll.
(Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.
[ROTATED: Kansas Senator, Sam Brownback; Former Virginia Governor, Jim Gilmore; Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich; Former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani; Nebraska Senator, Chuck Hagel; Former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee; California Congressman, Duncan Hunter; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney; Colorado Congressman, Tom Tancredo; Former Wisconsin Governor, Tommy Thompson; Former Tennessee Senator, Fred Thompson; Texas Congressman, Ron Paul]
|
Jun
|
May
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
Jan
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
32 |
29 |
34 |
35 |
38 |
31 |
44 |
40 |
31 |
|
John McCain |
19 |
23 |
20 |
22 |
16 |
22 |
20 |
24 |
27 |
|
Mitt Romney |
12 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
6 |
3 |
8 |
5 |
7 |
|
Fred Thompson |
11 |
12 |
13 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Newt Gingrich |
8 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
10 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
* |
2 |
1 |
|
Tom Tancredo |
2 |
1 |
1 |
* |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
N/A |
|
Tommy Thompson |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
Sam Brownback |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
Ron Paul |
1 |
-- |
* |
2 |
2 |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Duncan Hunter |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
|
Chuck Hagel |
* |
* |
1 |
-- |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
Jim Gilmore |
-- |
* |
1 |
2 |
* |
* |
* |
2 |
2 |
|
George Pataki |
N/A |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
|
None |
3 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
All/any |
* |
-- |
-- |
-- |
* |
1 |
* |
-- |
-- |
|
No opinion |
6 |
8 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
10 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||||||
|
N/A: Not asked |
|||||||||
|
Contact Gallup for full trend |
|||||||||
There has been relatively little change in Republicans' choice to win the nomination during the past few weeks. And, during the course of the year, Giuliani has consistently garnered the most support among Republicans, with McCain following behind. Republicans' support for McCain is near its lowest point (only the 16% support found for McCain in April is lower than the current 19%), and support for Romney is at its highest point to date as he reaches double-digits for the first time. Still, the small changes in support for both candidates are not statically significant from other recent polls.
Giuliani is the first or second choice to win the nomination among 54% of Republicans. This compares with 35% for McCain, 23% for Thompson, and 22% for Romney. There has also been little change on this measure during the past month. The percentage of Republicans supporting Giuliani has been higher at previous points this year, but he has consistently scored the highest of any candidate this year on this measure.
(Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party who named a candidate they support for the Republican nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice?
COMBINED RESPONSES: FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES
|
Jun
|
May
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
54 |
49 |
55 |
61 |
62 |
57 |
64 |
62 |
|
John McCain |
35 |
40 |
37 |
41 |
39 |
38 |
42 |
47 |
|
Fred Thompson |
23 |
20 |
21 |
19 |
16 |
16 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Mitt Romney |
22 |
19 |
20 |
15 |
12 |
9 |
14 |
11 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
15 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
19 |
15 |
21 |
18 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
4 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
Tommy Thompson |
3 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
|
Sam Brownback |
2 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
|
Tom Tancredo |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
Ron Paul |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Jim Gilmore |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Duncan Hunter |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
|
Chuck Hagel |
* |
1 |
2 |
* |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
George Pataki |
N/A |
4 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
2 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
|
None |
7 |
10 |
9 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
|
All/any |
* |
-- |
* |
-- |
* |
1 |
-- |
-- |
|
No opinion |
6 |
8 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
||||||||
|
Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses. |
||||||||
|
N/A: Not asked |
||||||||
A majority of Republicans, 56%, say they would prefer Giuliani to be the Republican Party nominee for president if the race narrows down to Giuliani and McCain. Thirty-eight percent pick McCain in this match-up. This has changed little since last month and has been the consistent pattern throughout the year.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,007 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 1-3, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 439 Republicans or Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 470 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.