Voter Preferences in Clinton-Giuliani Race Look Fairly "Normal"

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- If the choice for president in the 2008 election is between Sen. Hillary Clinton running as the Democratic candidate and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani as the Republican candidate, the dynamics of voters preferences could be more similar to recent presidential elections than might be expected. When removing the fact that Clinton would have the historic distinction of being the first female nominee and that Giuliani would be cast against Republicans' usual nomination of socially conservative Protestants, the race boils down to a Republican versus a Democrat -- and that may have more sway with voters than anything.

Gallup has run three trial heats this year for the 2008 presidential election in which Hillary Clinton is matched against Rudy Giuliani, and in all three Giuliani has held a slight lead. Averaging these polls gives Giuliani, the Republican, a five percentage-point lead over Clinton, the Democrat, among registered voters nationwide -- 51% vs. 46%, respectively.

According to the combined 2007 surveys, Clinton would beat Giuliani among women, blacks, young voters, in the East, in lower-income households, among singles, liberals, non-Christians, and, of course, Democrats. Giuliani would beat Clinton among most of these groups' natural counterparts: men, whites, middle-aged adults, seniors, those living in the South and West, upper-income residents, married persons, conservatives, Christians, and Republicans.

Given the historic nature of having a female Democrat running against a socially liberal Catholic Republican, it is remarkable how similar it appears the results would be to the 2004 election in which two white males representing the mainstream politics of the two parties faced off. In that election, President George W. Bush, the Republican, beat Sen. John Kerry, the Democrat, by about a three-point margin. (This comparison is made using Gallup's final pre-election poll from November of 2004, based on the subset of "likely voters" who most closely represent the electorate. Of the last six presidential elections, the results based on likely voters have only once deviated from the results based on registered voters by more than a few points.)

Most notably, it appears Clinton would run no stronger among women than Kerry did in 2004 -- or, for that matter, than Al Gore did when running against Bush in 2000. On average in 2007, women prefer Clinton over Giuliani by a six-point margin -- 53% to 47%, respectively. That is not much different from women's four-point preference for Kerry over Bush in 2004, or the eight-point preference for Gore over Bush in 2000.

A Clinton-Giuliani race may be more striking for its impact on the male vote. Men favor Giuliani over Clinton by a 16-point margin in 2007. That compares with a 12-point lead among men for Bush over Kerry among 2004, and a 7-point lead among men for Bush over Gore in 2000.

As seen in the table below, Clinton's and Giuliani's appeal to voters of various ages, races, regions of the country, and income levels can generally be predicted from the candidate preferences of voters in 2004.

Two important departures are seen in the areas of politics and religion.

• Those who identify their political views as "moderate" are more likely to support Giuliani in 2008 (51%) than they were to support Bush in 2004 (37%). Also, the slight majority of independents prefer Giuliani for 2008, whereas the slight majority in 2004 preferred Kerry.
  
• Catholics -- a majority of whom haven't voted for the Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984 -- also could switch party loyalties in a Clinton-Giuliani race. Whereas the majority of Catholics backed Kerry in 2004, Gallup's 2007 aggregate data analysis finds a majority backing Giuliani over Clinton for 2008.

Bottom Line

It is much too soon to be talking about who will win the 2008 presidential election. It may even be premature to make large wagers on who will be nominated by each party. However, it is not too early to note that the dynamics of national voter support for Clinton are fairly typical for modern Democratic nominees.

According to Gallup's 2007 election polling, it appears that if nominated, Clinton -- like Kerry and Gore before her -- will have to depend on the traditional base of the Democratic Party for her main support, and the outcome will be determined by traditional swing voter groups, such as "independents" and "moderates." At least at this stage, it does not appear that Clinton has a special advantage among women to offset the importance of these groups. If anything, it appears she may face a harder time holding her own among male voters, at least with Giuliani as her opponent.

Survey Methods

Results are based on three nationally representative USA Today/Gallup and Gallup Poll surveys conducted between February 9, 2007 and June 3, 2007. The combined database includes 2,772 registered voters, aged 18 and older. For results based on all registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

12. Suppose the 2008 presidential election were being held today. If Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Rudy Giuliani were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for -- [ROTATED: Hillary Clinton, the Democrat (or) Rudy Giuliani, the Republican]?

12A. (Asked of those who are undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Clinton, the Democrat (or) Giuliani, the Republican]?