Clinton Dominant Leader Among Hispanic Democrats

by Jeffrey M. Jones

Blacks divided as to whether Clinton or Obama would better represent their interests

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's annual Minority Relations Poll, which includes large samples of blacks and Hispanics, finds Hillary Clinton with a wide lead in Hispanic Democrats' preferences for the Democratic presidential nomination, and Clinton and Barack Obama running about even among black Democrats. Clinton also has an advantage among non-Hispanic white Democrats. Americans overall say Obama would do a better job than Clinton of representing the interests of U.S. blacks, but blacks themselves are divided in their views on this matter.

The poll was conducted June 4-24, 2007, interviewing 2,388 adults nationwide, including 868 non-Hispanic whites, 802 non-Hispanic blacks, and 502 Hispanics. The total sample is weighted to reflect the proper proportions of each group in the U.S. population. About one-quarter of the interviews with Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, with the remainder conducted in English.

Among all Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in the poll, 35% say they are most likely to support Clinton for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, with 20% choosing Obama, 16% Al Gore, and 11% John Edwards. Each of the remaining candidates is supported by 3% or fewer of Democrats. These results are similar to what Gallup has found in its regular polling on the nomination -- the most current of which shows Clinton at 33% and Obama at 21%.

Support for the Democratic candidates differs, however, among blacks and Hispanics; two groups that make up a substantial proportion of the Democratic base -- and to which Democratic candidates must appeal to win the party's presidential nomination.

Clinton is the overwhelming leader among Hispanic Democrats. A majority, 55%, choose her, with Obama and Gore barely in double digits -- at 12% and 11%, respectively. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, attempting to become the first Hispanic president, is the choice of just 8% of Hispanics.

When reluctant candidate Gore's support is re-distributed based on his supporters' second choice, Clinton's share of the vote increases to 59%, with Obama at 13% and Richardson moving into double digits at 11%.

Support for 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Among Hispanic Democrats

Candidate

Preference for
Democratic nominee,
including Gore

Preference for
Democratic nominee,
excluding Gore

%

%

Hillary Clinton

55

59

Barack Obama

12

13

Al Gore

11

--

Bill Richardson

8

11

John Edwards

5

7

Joe Biden

1

1

Dennis Kucinich

*

*

Mike Gravel

--

--

Christopher Dodd

--

--

 

 

Other/All/any

1

1

None/No opinion

6

7

* = Less than 0.5%

Among black Democrats, Clinton and Obama are running neck-and-neck in what is essentially a two-person contest. In the poll, 40% of black Democrats prefer Obama and 38% Clinton, with no other candidate in double digits. With Gore's support re-distributed, Clinton and Obama's combined share of the black vote increases from 78% to 85%, with Edwards the only other candidate above 1%.

Support for 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Among Black Democrats

Candidate

Preference for
Democratic nominee,
including Gore

Preference for
Democratic nominee,
excluding Gore

%

%

Barack Obama

40

42

Hillary Clinton

38

43

Al Gore

9

--

John Edwards

3

6

Joe Biden

1

1

Bill Richardson

1

1

Dennis Kucinich

1

1

Christopher Dodd

*

*

Mike Gravel

--

*

 

 

Other/All/any

*

*

None/No opinion

7

7

* = Less than 0.5%

Even though Clinton's 31% support among white Democrats is lower than her support among blacks and Hispanics, she still has at least a double-digit advantage over all other candidates among this group. Edwards fares much better among whites (16%) than he does among Hispanics (5%) or blacks (3%), which indicates he could face a significant challenge in primaries in states where blacks or Hispanics make up a substantial proportion of the Democratic electorate.

Support for 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Among Non-Hispanic White Democrats

Candidate

Preference for
Democratic nominee,
including Gore

Preference for
Democratic nominee,
excluding Gore

%

%

Hillary Clinton

31

37

Barack Obama

18

21

Al Gore

17

--

John Edwards

16

20

Joe Biden

5

7

Bill Richardson

2

2

Mike Gravel

2

2

Dennis Kucinich

1

2

Christopher Dodd

*

*

 

 

Other/All/any

4

4

None/No opinion

6

6

* = Less than 0.5%

 
Candidate Better for Blacks

Given Obama's racial background and the strong support the black community has shown for Bill and Hillary Clinton since the former was elected president in 1992, it is no surprise that Clinton and Obama are the dominant candidates among blacks.

To gain additional insight into the element of race in the 2008 presidential race, Gallup asked the public whether they thought Clinton or Obama would do a better job of representing the interests of blacks in the United States. By a 57% to 24% margin, Americans say Obama would do the better job. That result is largely reflective of the white majority in the United States, since whites believe Obama would better represent blacks than Clinton by more than 3 to 1.

However, blacks themselves are evenly divided on this question, with 43% saying Obama would better represent them and 39% saying Clinton. Hispanics are also evenly divided in their views.

Candidate Better for Blacks,
2007 Gallup Minority Rights and Relations Poll
By Racial or Ethnic Group

Overall

Whites

Blacks

Hispanics

%

%

%

%

Obama

57

62

43

40

Clinton

24

20

39

36

Among all Democrats surveyed, 54% say Obama would be better at representing blacks and 29% say Clinton would.

Survey Methods

Survey results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 2,388 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 4-24, 2007. The sample includes oversamples of 802 blacks and 502 Hispanics that are weighted to their proper proportion in the U.S. population. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error and other random effects is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 868 non-Hispanic whites, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 802 non-Hispanic blacks, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 502 Hispanics, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 1,461 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 408 non-Hispanic white Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±10 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 635 non-Hispanic black Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 298 Hispanic Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±8 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Get Articles in Related Topics:


Gallup http://www.gallup.com/poll/28000/clinton-dominant-leader-among-hispanic-democrats.aspx
Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A
+1 202.715.3030