Hispanic Voters Prefer Clinton to Giuliani in Hypothetical Match-Up

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's annual Minority Rights and Relations survey asked Americans whom they would vote for in a hypothetical presidential match-up between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rudy Giuliani in the November 2008 general election. The results show significant differences in vote preferences among racial and ethnic groups. Giuliani wins by a substantial margin among non-Hispanic white registered voters, while Clinton wins by even more substantial margins among Hispanic and black voters.

The poll was conducted June 4-24, 2007, interviewing 2,039 registered voters nationwide, including 791 non-Hispanic white registered voters, 715 non-Hispanic black registered voters, and 358 Hispanic registered voters. The total sample is weighted to reflect the proportions of each group in the U.S. population. About one-quarter of the interviews with Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, with the remainder in English.

The hypothetical race between Clinton and Giuliani for the White House is essentially even among all registered voters interviewed in this June sample -- 49% of registered voters say they would vote for Giuliani; 47% for Clinton. Other recent polls have also shown the 2008 presidential race between these two front-runners to be close when the total voting population is taken into account.

However, the closeness of the overall match-up between Clinton and Giuliani masks substantial differences by race and ethnicity.

Hispanic registered voters are about twice as likely to support Clinton as they are Giuliani. Sixty-five percent of Hispanic voters say they would vote for Clinton if the 2008 presidential election were held today, while 33% would vote for Giuliani.

There are also substantial vote differences within the Hispanic population by education. Clinton's support is much higher among less well-educated Hispanics than it is among those with college educations. Seventy-eight percent of Hispanic registered voters with no college education say they would vote for Clinton, while Clinton and Giuliani are essentially tied among college-educated Hispanic voters, with 50% supporting Giuliani and 47% supporting Clinton. By contrast, black and non-Hispanic white voters of differing education levels show little variation in their preferences in the Clinton-Giuliani match-up.

Nearly 9 in 10 black registered voters (88%) say they would vote for Clinton if the election for president were held today. Only 8% would vote for Giuliani. This is not a surprising finding, because most blacks identify themselves as Democrats and blacks have historically supported the Democratic presidential candidate in overwhelming numbers. In this poll, 62% of black registered voters say they are Democrats, while 33% identify as independents and just 6% as Republicans.

Among non-Hispanic white registered voters, Giuliani bests Clinton, 57% to 40%.

Bottom Line

While voter preferences for the November 2008 election are about evenly divided between the Democratic and Republican front-runners, there are substantial differences within the overall voter population by race and ethnicity. The Republican Giuliani beats the Democrat Clinton among non-Hispanic whites, while Clinton is the overwhelming choice among Hispanics and blacks. Because whites make up such a large segment of the eligible electorate compared with blacks and Hispanics, Giuliani remains competitive despite Clinton's dominance among blacks and Hispanics.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 2,039 registered voters nationwide, aged 18 and older, conducted June 4-24, 2007, including oversamples of blacks and Hispanics that are weighted to reflect their proportions in the general population. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 791 non-Hispanic white registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 715 black registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 358 Hispanic registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Thinking now about the general election for president, which will be held in November 2008,

35. Suppose the 2008 presidential election were being held today. If Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Rudy Giuliani were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for -- [ROTATED: Hillary Clinton, the Democrat (or) Rudy Giuliani, the Republican]?

(Asked of those who are undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Clinton, the Democrat (or) Giuliani, the Republican]?