Bloomberg at 12% as Independent for President

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Should New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg decide to run for president in 2008 as an independent candidate, the latest USA Today/Gallup poll finds he would start off with a credible level of base support from the American people, drawing most of his votes from the political center. According to the July 6-8, 2007 survey, 12% of registered voters say they would vote for Bloomberg in a three-candidate race that includes Hillary Clinton as the Democratic candidate, and Rudy Giuliani as the Republican.

The same poll includes Gallup's first national favorable rating of Bloomberg. In contrast to Giuliani and Clinton, who have near universal recognition with Americans, more than a third of Americans (37%) don't know enough about Bloomberg to rate him. Among the remainder, he is viewed, on balance, more favorably than unfavorably, 36% vs. 27%.

While this suggests that Bloomberg has some opportunity to expand his support just by becoming better known to the public, Gallup's June 25-28, 2007 Panel poll finds that voters may just be more generally open to the idea of any independent candidate running in 2008. That poll included a "generic ballot" question that asked whether they would vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, or an independent candidate not affiliated with either party if the 2008 presidential election were held today. Eleven percent of registered voters say they would vote for the independent candidate -- very similar to Bloomberg's 12%.

Even at Bloomberg's current level of recognition, his 12% voter support immediately distinguishes Bloomberg from independent presidential contestants of the recent past. Not since Ross Perot drew 19% of the national vote in 1992 on the "United We Stand America" ticket has a third-party presidential candidate garnered double-digit support from America voters. None of the independent or minor party candidates of the last two elections, including Ralph Nader, Pat Buchanan, and the Libertarian Party nominees, have earned more than 3% of the vote.

Bloomberg's initial support level, though, is not as auspicious as Perot's was in 1992. Gallup's first poll measuring support for his candidacy in late February 1992 found 24% of Americans supporting him. But, that was after Perot had already appeared on CNN's Larry King Live program declaring his intention to launch a grass roots petition drive to get on the ballot in all 50 states. Whether Bloomberg could similarly excite Americans around his possible candidacy and bring new voters into the process to boost his numbers -- Perot peaked at 39% and was in first place in June 1992 before temporarily dropping out of the race -- remains to be seen.

Not Necessarily a Spoiler

All candidates for president tend to say they are running to win, but it's clear that some independents, such as Buchanan in 2004, are in it mostly as a political platform. By attracting a disproportionate number of Democrats to his Green Party candidacy in 2000, Nader possibly siphoned enough votes away from Al Gore to cost Gore the election. Theoretically, candidates like that can have some political influence over the issue positions taken by the opponents to whom they pose the greatest threat.

It's not yet clear what kind of candidate Bloomberg would be -- a real contender, or a spoiler who ultimately attempts to push one party or the other more in the direction of his liking.

In terms of the potential "spoiler" impact of a Bloomberg candidacy, it would initially appear to be minimal. He is supported by 13% of Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) and by 12% of Democrats (including independents who lean Democratic).

Clinton's six-point lead over Giuliani in a race that includes Bloomberg is not statistically different from her four-point lead in Gallup's most recent two-way match-up between Clinton and Giuliani from mid-June.

Down the road, Bloomberg could, in theory, pose a greater threat to Clinton than to Giuliani, given that he tends to be viewed more favorably by Democrats and liberals than by Republicans and conservatives. Roughly 4 in 10 Democrats (including Democratic-leaning independents) and liberals say they have a favorable view of Bloomberg. By comparison, only about one in three Republicans (including independent "leaners") and conservatives rate him favorably.

Could Bloomberg Win?

Earlier this summer, Bloomberg left the Republican Party and became unaffiliated with any political party. In a speech on June 19, Bloomberg condemned the current partisan politics in Washington, saying, "The politics of partisanship and the resulting inaction and excuses have paralyzed decision-making, primarily at the federal level, and the big issues of the day are not being addressed, leaving our future in jeopardy."

The latest poll asked Americans if they think the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job of representing the American people, or if they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed. Only 33% of Americans say the parties do an adequate job, while majority of Americans, 58%, say a third party is needed.

Bloomberg supporters are much more likely than Clinton or Giuliani supporters to say a third major party is needed -- 81% of Bloomberg supporters share this view, compared with 56% of Giuliani supporters and 52% of Clinton supporters.

Despite the majority support for the concept of a third party -- and even if Bloomberg can boost his support in the coming months -- he still faces an almost insurmountable challenge to actually beat the Republican or Democratic candidates next year. Given the challenges third party candidates already face in winning electoral votes, this support will become particularly significant.

According to the recent Gallup Panel poll, only about one in six registered voters (16%) say it is "very likely" that they would vote for a candidate who was running as an independent in next year's presidential election. An additional 32% say it is somewhat likely, and 50% say it is not too or not at all likely.

Fewer voters -- only 4% -- say it is "very likely" that an independent candidate could win the 2008 presidential election. About one in four voters say it is at least somewhat likely that an independent could win the election; 72% say it is not too or not at all likely.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 6-8, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 916 registered voters in the July 6-8, 2007 USA Today/Gallup poll, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Results for this panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 25-28, 2007. Respondents were drawn from Gallup's household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. The final sample is weighted so it is representative of U.S. adults nationwide. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 905 registered voters in the June 25-28, 2007 Gallup Panel poll, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.