2008 Nomination Contests Holding Steady With Clinton and Giuliani on Top

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup survey, conducted July 12-15, 2007, finds little change from earlier this month in public preferences for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations.                     

Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to lead Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination. Clinton has a 34% to 25% lead over Obama in a straight ballot question listing eight announced candidates plus Gore, and a 54% vs. 42% lead in a measure asking Democrats who they would vote for if the race narrows down to just Clinton and Obama. In the Republican race, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to overshadow his opponents, leading former Sen. Fred Thompson by 10 percentage points in the straight ballot question, 30% to 20%, and by a sizable 20-point margin in a "narrow down" with Fred Thompson

Sen. John McCain's dwindling campaign coffers and resulting staff shakeup have dominated campaign news coverage in the past week, much of it with the potentially ruinous overtones that his campaign could be folding. However, thus far this has not dampened his previously reduced level of support any further. McCain slipped into third place in the Republican field (with 16%) behind Fred Thompson in early July, and he remains at that level of support today.

Other Findings on the GOP Trail

Mitt Romney (who has been officially running for his party's nomination since January) and Newt Gingrich (who has yet to make his intentions to run known) are about tied for fourth place in the GOP field, with neither breaking the 10% voter support threshold in the latest poll. No other Republican exceeds 3%.

This includes Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore who announced over the weekend that he is pulling out of the race. Gilmore was never supported by more than 2% of potential Republican primary voters in any Gallup nomination ballot this year, and has recently been attracting the support of less than one-half of one percent. (In the weekend poll, which began before his withdrawal announcement, Gilmore received the vote of one respondent.)

Even when Gallup factors Gingrich out of the field by replacing his support with his voters' second choice, no second-tier Republican candidate rises above 3% today. With Gingrich removed, Giuliani's support increases to 33% and Fred Thompson's to 21% -- but there is no increase for McCain.

According to the original ballot preferences that include Gingrich, support for the top-three ranked Republicans is virtually identical to where it was in early July, and has varied little since mid-June. The most significant change has been the near doubling of support for Fred Thompson from 11% in early June to 19% in mid-June.

Although Giuliani holds a 10-point lead over his nearest rival for the Republican nomination, his position looks much stronger when examining two other measures of candidate support. One of these is the candidates' "total" support, which is determined by adding the number of Republicans who name each as their first or second choice for the nomination.

On this basis, Giuliani is supported by 53% of Republicans (including independents who lean Republican), compared with only 30% for Fred Thompson, and 29% for McCain. Romney and Gingrich garner no more than 15% support, even when respondents are given two opportunities to name them as their preferred candidate.

Additionally, Giuliani beats Fred Thompson by 20 points, 54% to 34%, when Republicans are asked which of the two they would vote for should the Republican field narrow down to just these candidates. In June, he led by 53% to 41%.

The Democratic Field

The Democratic race has been generally stable in July, with Clinton maintaining her lead in the field, now by a nine-percentage point margin over Obama, at 34% to 25%.

Clinton's current level of support is slightly below the 37% she received earlier this month, and Obama's is up slightly from 21%. Neither of these changes is statistically significant.

Al Gore's July 7, 2007, Live Earth concert -- designed to bring attention to global warming -- might also have been expected to raise Gore's profile with Americans. However, the percentage of Democrats (including Democratic leaners) who favor Gore for the nomination has not changed. Currently, 16% of Democrats say they would like to see him nominated. This is identical to the early July figure -- and is similar to the 18% found in the previous reading from mid-June.

Gore has not completely ruled out a bid for the presidency, but some of his recent statements indicate he is moving rapidly in that direction. Removing Gore from the Democratic preference list -- and substituting the second choice of his voters in his place -- Gallup finds Clinton picking up six percentage points and Obama three percentage points. The result is that Clinton's lead over Obama stretches to 12 percentage points, 40% vs. 28%. Support for Edwards expands to 13 percentage points.

Fourth place Democrat Sen. John Edwards dropped to 9% in the latest poll from 13% earlier in this month. This is not a statistically significant change, but is the first time since early March that he has registered below 10%. With Gore preferences excluded, Edwards' support is 13%. All other Democrats are at 5% or lower regardless of whether Gore's support is included.

More broadly, Clinton's current edge over Obama (in the ballot that includes Gore) is similar to the average 10-point lead she has held since May. Within that period the gap has widened and narrowed, but for the most part the changes have not been significant.

With a 12-point lead over Obama in Gallup's Democratic "narrow-down," Clinton leads Obama by about the same margin on this measure as she does in the full ballot. Clinton had been significantly ahead of Obama on this measure early in the year, but since mid-April, she has led by an average of only 12 points.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,001 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 12-15, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 417 Republicans or Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 483 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.