Public Confidence in Presidential Hopefuls on Key 2008 Election Issues

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup Panel survey finds each of the five best-known 2008 presidential candidates scoring similarly in ratings of public confidence in their ability to recommend the right thing for the war in Iraq. This suggests that despite public dissatisfaction with the war, it is not necessarily a winning issue for Democratic candidates. Meanwhile, Republicans Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have a decided edge over the other candidates on terrorism, while Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama fare best on healthcare. On the economy, the public is most likely to express confidence in Giuliani, Clinton, and Obama.

Ratings of the candidates on all four issues are highly influenced by partisanship, with Clinton's ratings the most polarized along party lines. In general, less well-known candidates Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney do not fare as well as the other candidates on all the issues, primarily because about one in five respondents do not have an opinion on how they would handle each of these issues.

The July 23-26, 2007, poll asked a representative sample of 1,011 Americans drawn from Gallup's household panel if they have "a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or almost no confidence" in the seven leading presidential hopefuls "to recommend the right thing" for each of four issues likely to be key in the 2008 campaign -- the war in Iraq, the economy, terrorism, and healthcare.

Unless there is a major shift in Bush administration policy on the war in Iraq between now and next summer, that issue is likely to dominate the 2008 presidential campaign. But the poll finds none of the major candidates standing out from the others on this issue. Aside from Romney and Thompson, the five other candidates score between 50% and 55% on this measure of public confidence in their ability to choose the proper course of action in Iraq. The failure of the Democratic candidates to score higher confidence levels on Iraq is significant given the fact that a substantial majority of Americans say that the war -- initiated and supported by a Republican administration -- is a mistake, and that a majority have opposed the Bush administration surge that has been supported by both Giuliani, and in particular, McCain.

The public usually views the Republican Party as better on terrorism than the Democratic Party, so it is no surprise to see Giuliani and McCain well ahead of the other candidates in public confidence on this issue. Sixty-nine percent of Americans have at least a fair amount of confidence in Giuliani, widely hailed for his response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks while serving as mayor of New York City. Sixty-six percent of Americans express confidence in McCain.

Both Clinton and Obama pass the majority threshold on this measure, at 55% and 53%, respectively. Edwards is slightly below that mark, with a 48% confidence score, and nearly as many (47%) say they have little or no confidence in the former North Carolina senator on terrorism.

Even among those who are familiar with Thompson and Romney, these two candidates do not do as well as their Republican colleagues on this issue. Forty-two percent of Americans have at least a fair amount of confidence in Thompson on terrorism, while 36% have little to no confidence in him. Meanwhile, more Americans (44%) say they have little or no confidence in Romney on terrorism than express confidence in him (38%).

McCain's relatively strong position on terrorism (and Iraq) suggests that despite news reports that his campaign is struggling, he still maintains a positive position in the minds of many Americans on core national security issues.

While the Republicans usually have an edge on terrorism from the public's perspective, the Democrats usually do better on a range of domestic issues such as healthcare. The recent poll is no exception, finding nearly two in three Americans saying they have a great deal or fair amount of confidence in Clinton to recommend the right thing for the nation's healthcare system, slightly higher than the 61% who say this about Obama. A majority of Americans also express confidence in Edwards, 54%. Giuliani is the only Republican to get a confidence rating above 50% on healthcare.

A majority of Americans express confidence in each of the five most well-known candidates to recommend the right thing for the economy, but more do so for Obama (62%), Clinton (61%), and Giuliani (60%) than for McCain (53%) and Edwards (51%).

Meanwhile, 40% are confident in Romney on the economy, 43% are not, and 18% have no opinion, while 39% are confident in Thompson, 39% are not, and 21% have no opinion.

Party Differences

Americans' definitions of the "right thing" to do on Iraq, economy, healthcare, and terrorism should vary, most likely according to their political world views. As a result, confidence ratings of the candidates on the issues show wide variation by partisanship.

Iraq

Republicans express the most confidence in Giuliani to handle Iraq, while Democrats rate Clinton and Obama slightly ahead of Edwards. Independents do not express a high degree of confidence in any of the candidates, with Clinton's 55% the highest, but not significantly better than McCain, Obama, or Giuliani among this group.

Terrorism

Not only do the vast majority of Republicans express confidence in Giuliani and McCain on terrorism, but so do a majority of Democrats. These are the only instances for which a majority of the opposing party expresses confidence in candidates on an issue. Democrats still rate their three leading candidates -- Clinton, Obama, and Edwards -- ahead of McCain and Giuliani for handling terrorism.

This finding suggests that national security issues -- so important in the winning presidential campaign of George W. Bush in 2004 -- could still be a positive factor for the Republican nominee next year.

Healthcare

The Clinton administration's unsuccessful attempt to pass comprehensive healthcare reform in 1993-1994 has not shaken Democrats' (or independents') confidence in her to recommend the right thing for healthcare. Her 91% rating among Democrats on healthcare is the highest for any candidate on any issue within their own party. Only 33% of Republicans are confident in Clinton on this issue. Republicans put more trust in Giuliani than any other candidate on this issue.

The Economy

Giuliani also fares the best among Republicans on the economy, by a significant margin over McCain (79% to 66%). Republicans are more inclined to express confidence in Obama (42%) rather than Edwards (29%) or Clinton (27%) among the Democratic candidates.

Democrats, on the other hand, trust Clinton the most on the economy, at 88%. Independents put more faith in Clinton's and Obama's ability to handle the economy than any of the other candidates.

Party Polarization

Overall, a comparison of the confidence ratings given each candidate by members of the candidates' own and opposing parties underscores the highly polarized positioning of Clinton in the minds of many Americans. The average gap in confidence ratings of Clinton between Republicans and Democrats across all four issues is 61 percentage points. That is 18 points more than the next candidate, Edwards, with an average party difference of 43 points. Ratings of confidence in Obama by Democrats and Republicans also show a gap of more than 40 points on average.

There are smaller gaps in the ratings of the Republican candidates, suggesting that Republicans rate Democratic candidates worse than Democrats rate Republican candidates. Romney's ratings show the least polarization, in part because of his lower public profile. Among the better-known candidates, confidence ratings of McCain show the smallest differences along party lines.

Survey Methods

Results for this panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,011 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 23-26, 2007. Respondents were drawn from Gallup's household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. The final sample is weighted so it is representative of U.S. adults nationwide. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

6. Please tell me how much confidence you have in each of the following to do or to recommend the right thing for THE ECONOMY -- a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or almost none. How about… [random order]?

7. Please tell me how much confidence you have in each of the following to do or to recommend the right thing for THE WAR IN IRAQ -- a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or almost none. How about… [RANDOM ORDER]?

8. Please tell me how much confidence you have in each of the following to do or to recommend the right thing for HANDLING TERRORISM -- a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or almost none. How about… [RANDOM ORDER]?

9. Please tell me how much confidence you have in each of the following to do or to recommend the right thing for THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM -- a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or almost none. How about… [RANDOM ORDER]?