Clinton Bounds Further Ahead in Democratic Contest

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Sen. Hillary Clinton strengthened her frontrunner status in the Democratic field over the past month, pulling 10 points further ahead of Sen. Barack Obama than she was in mid-July. According to the August 3-5 USA Today/Gallup Poll, none of the other announced contenders for the 2008 Democratic nomination are within striking distance of Clinton, and only former Sen. John Edwards appears strong enough to potentially compete with Obama for second place.

Clinton is now the preferred nominee of 48% of Democrats nationwide, compared with Obama's 26%. Last month, she led by a smaller 12-point margin, 40% vs. 28%. Most of the change is due to increased support for Clinton rather than a decline in support for Obama.

Other candidates with at least some support are Edwards with 12%, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson at 4%, Sen. Joe Biden at 3%, and Rep. Dennis Kucinich at 1%. Sen. Chris Dodd is supported by less than one-half of one percent of Democrats.

These results are based on all Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, and the assumption that former vice president Al Gore will not be a candidate for the nomination.

Should Gore decide to run, it appears he would have limited impact on the race. Gore receives 18% of the vote when included in the list of possible Democratic candidates, however Clinton maintains a sizable lead, and Gore runs neck and neck with Obama for second place.

Clinton Holds Solid Lead Among Likely Voters

Although presidential primaries play out in a sequence of state elections that have historically produced some surprises, national polling of partisan preferences usually provides a good indication of which candidates will do well. That forecasting may be improved by focusing in on the subset of eligible voters who appear most likely to participate in the primary elections

Gallup's latest survey asked Democrats and Democratic leaners to rate their likelihood of voting in next year's Democratic presidential primary or caucus in their state. Overall, 58% of this group says they are extremely likely to vote, another 25% say they are very likely, 10% say somewhat likely, and 7% admit they are not likely to vote.

Looking at the race based on registered Democrats and Democratic leaners who say they are extremely likely to vote (representing 63% of all Democrats and Democratic leaners), Clinton still dominates the field, although by a bit smaller margin than among all Democrats. Support for Clinton remains about the same, at 47%, but the percentage choosing Obama is slightly higher, at 31%.

This tightening of the race, albeit slight, reflects the fact that a smaller percentage of Clinton's voters than Obama's (62% vs. 75%) say they are extremely likely to vote.

Clinton Pulls Ahead in Narrow Down

Clinton's improved standing in the latest poll is also reflected in a separate question asking Democrats who they would vote for should the Democratic field narrow down to just Clinton and Obama. Clinton now leads Obama by a 23-point margin on this measure, 59% to 36%. Last month she held a much smaller 12-point lead; however the current spread is similar to where she stood earlier this year.

Not only is Clinton generally preferred for the nomination over Obama, but in a new question asking Democrats which of the two candidates would do the better job handling four specific foreign policy responsibilities, Clinton wins hands-down on each.

The survey was conducted after Obama's widely publicized August 1 foreign policy speech in which he took a hard line against al Qaeda, saying that as president he would not wait for approval from Pakistan's government to authorize any military action he felt was warranted against terrorist sites in Pakistan. He also said he would meet with the leaders of hostile countries such as Cuba and North Korea, something his opponents have seized on to reinforce the perception that Obama lacks the experience necessary to be president.

Thus, it is notable that the poll finds Clinton leading Obama by her widest margins in perceived handling of international terrorism, and "relations with nations that are unfriendly to the United States." This could potentially explain Clinton's recent rise in the polls.

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Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,012 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted August 3-5, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 490 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 277 registered Democrats or Democratic leaners who are extremely likely to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ± 6 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

14. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) How likely are you to vote in the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state when it is held next year -- extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely?

BASED ON 490 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS