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GOP Update: McCain Gains While Romney Fades

GOP Update: McCain Gains While Romney Fades

Giuliani still leads GOP race; Thompson in second place

by Frank Newport and Joseph Carroll

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to lead the national race for the Republican presidential nomination, although his support has faded to one of its lowest readings of the year. Former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, who recently announced his candidacy, holds steady in second place, 8 percentage points behind the frontrunner. Meanwhile, Arizona Sen. John McCain has continued to recover from his early August doldrums and is in third place, only 4 points behind Thompson and more than 10 points ahead of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Romney's mini-bounce after the Iowa straw poll in early August appears to have been short-lived.

In general, support for McCain has shown gradual improvement over the past month, and Americans' opinions of McCain are at their highest point since May. McCain is now rated as favorably by Americans as Giuliani, and more so than the less-well known Thompson or Romney.

Republican Nomination Trial Heat

The Sept. 14-16, 2007, Gallup Poll survey finds Giuliani maintaining a significant lead over the eight other announced Republican candidates, with 30% of Republicans (and Republican-leaning independents) supporting the former New York City mayor for the nomination. Following next is Thompson at 22%, McCain at 18%, and Romney at 7%. Both former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and current Texas Congressman Ron Paul get 4% of the vote.

Republican Presidential Nomination Preference
(without Newt Gingrich)
Sept. 14-16, 2007

%

Rudy Giuliani

30

Fred Thompson

22

John McCain

18

Mitt Romney

7

Ron Paul

4

Mike Huckabee

4

Duncan Hunter

2

Sam Brownback

2

Tom Tancredo

1

 

Other

1

None/no opinion

10

These current figures represent some modest changes in Republicans' preferences for their party's nomination compared to just a month ago. 

Although Giuliani remains in first place, his current level of support -- 30% -- is among his lowest so far this year (his 29% support in June was the lowest). Still, it is not significantly lower than what Gallup has tracked in recent months. Since July, Giuliani's support has averaged 32%.

Public support for Romney nearly doubled after his win in the Iowa straw poll in early August, from 8% to 14%, constituting a "mini-bounce" of sorts. Since then, however, Republican support for Romney has waned, dropping to 7% in the latest poll, his lowest level of support in any poll since April. Thus, on the national level, Romney has not been able to capitalize on his Iowa win to move to a position in which he is challenging the frontrunners.

The pattern of Republican vote choices for McCain is just the opposite. He faded to his low point of the year in early August (11%), coincident with Romney's Iowa win and amid widespread publicity about troubles within his own campaign. McCain has recovered his positioning within the ranks of the GOP since then, however, moving to 15% in early September and 18% in the current poll. He appears to have solidified a strong third-place showing in the race, and is only 4 points behind Thompson in this poll.

Despite the hoopla surrounding Thompson's official announcement that he is running for president, Republicans' support for his candidacy has barely moved in recent months, generally registering 21% to 22% since mid-June. Thus, while Thompson's standing has improved somewhat from the deterioration in support for Giuliani, his own level of support has not increased significantly.

There is a bit of good news for Thompson in the poll, however. He fares better among those Republican voters who appear most likely to vote in the primaries this year than he does among general Republicans and Republican-leaners.

Overall, 61% of Republicans say it is "extremely likely" that they will vote in the Republican primary or caucus in their state when it is held next year. Giuliani and Thompson are essentially tied among this group, with McCain a solid third place. No other Republican candidate receives double-digit support among this group of voters.

Republican Presidential Nomination Preference
Among Republicans Who are Extremely Likely to Vote in the Primary/Caucus in Their State
(without Newt Gingrich)

Sept. 14-16, 2007

%

Rudy Giuliani

29

Fred Thompson

26

John McCain

15

Mitt Romney

8

Mike Huckabee

4

Sam Brownback

3

Duncan Hunter

3

Ron Paul

3

Tom Tancredo

1

Other

*

None/no opinion

6

* Less than 0.5%

The Republican Candidates' Images

For most of the year, Giuliani has been the most favorably rated Republican candidate in the eyes of the American public. But in the current poll, McCain's ratings have moved up to the point where he is essentially tied with Giuliani as the most positively evaluated of the four leading Republican candidates. More than half of Americans have a favorable opinion of McCain (53%) and Giuliani (52%). Thirty-eight percent rate Thompson favorably, and 27% favorably rate Romney. (It should be noted that the lower "favorable" ratings for Thompson and Romney are in part due to their overall lack of familiarity -- 39% of Americans have no opinion of Thompson and 38% have no opinion of Romney.)

Americans' ratings of McCain have become much more positive in recent weeks and are now at the highest level since May. McCain's "favorable" rating fell under 50% in June and dropped to as low as 41% in August, when Americans were as likely to rate him unfavorably as favorably. Since then, McCain's rating has been improving modestly and is now above 50% again, with his "unfavorable" rating dropping to 34%. 

The public's familiarity with Thompson continues to rise. When Gallup first tested Americans' familiarity with him in April of this year, only 35% knew him well enough to have an opinion; that number is now 60%.

Thompson's favorable rating is at 38%, the highest point to date, although not much higher than his 36% rating from earlier this month. His unfavorable rating (now at 22%) is also at its highest point, although it has been close to this level earlier this year. 

While Romney's favorable rating is the same as it was earlier this month, his unfavorable rating has increased and is now at its highest point to date (35%). Romney's ratings had improved following his win in the Iowa straw poll in August, after which 33% rated him positively and 24% negatively. Since then, his ratings have quickly deteriorated. Romney now has a net negative image in the eyes of Americans (27% favorable, 35% unfavorable), as was the case in several polls this summer.

  

Giuliani's favorable rating also shows little change from earlier this month, but now ties for his lowest this year. His current unfavorable rating (38%) is the most negative Gallup has recorded for Giuliani over the course of the year, and is 8 points higher than it was earlier in the month.  

This table displays the images of the candidates among only Republicans:

Favorability of Republican Candidates
Among Republicans/Republican Leaners

Sept. 14-16, 2007

Favorable

Unfavorable

No opinion

%

%

%

Rudy Giuliani

70

22

9

John McCain

65

25

9

Fred Thompson

55

9

36

Mitt Romney

39

23

37

Giuliani is the most favorably rated of the four leading Republicans among the party faithful, followed closely by McCain. More than one-third of Republicans don't know enough about either Thompson or Romney to have an opinion about either man.

It should be noted that Thompson has the least negative baggage among members of his own party. Only 9% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Thompson, giving him the best positive-to-negative rating of any of these four candidates. The other three candidates are roughly tied with negative ratings among 22% to 25% of Republicans, although Giuliani and McCain have much higher favorable ratings than does Romney, who has the lowest positive-to negative-ratio among Republicans of any of these four leading candidates.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,010 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 14-16, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 401 Republicans or Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/28702/GOP-Update-McCain-Gains-While-Romney-Fades.aspx
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