Three Years Later, Majority of Americans Now Believe Mechanical Failure Was Cause of TWA Crash

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup poll, conducted this summer at the third anniversary of the TWA Flight 800 crash off Long Island, New York, shows that 56% of Americans attribute the deadly crash to mechanical failure, up from 44% when the question was last asked in May 1997. The new poll also indicates that 85% of Americans have taken a trip on a commercial airliner at some point in their lives, and of those, about half are frightened at least some of the time when they fly.

Investigators who are examining the July 17, 1996 crash of TWA Flight 800 now say they are certain that an explosion in the center fuel tank of the Boeing 747 caused the disaster, despite persistent speculation that terrorists or an errant U.S. Navy missile might have brought down the plane. Over half of Americans -- 56% -- agree that the crash was a result of mechanical failure, compared to 44% who believed this two years ago. Fourteen percent continue to believe the crash was the result of an accidental strike by a U.S. Navy missile, but this is down from 27% who felt that way in 1997. Eight percent still believe it was a terrorist strike, the same percentage who believed that in 1997. Another 13% name some other cause.

Americans Ambivalent About Air Travel
Americans appear to have conflicting feelings about air travel. On the one hand, over four in five Americans indicate they have flown at some time in their lifetime on a commercial airplane, and frequent travel remains as common today as it was prior to the TWA disaster. Close to half of Americans, 46%, say they have taken a commercial flight in the past year, compared to 43% in May 1996. In addition, 53% claim to have more confidence in the safety and efficiency provided by the airlines than they did a few years ago. On the other hand, half of those who have ever taken to the sky, 49%, admit to being afraid at least some of the time when they fly, including 12% who say they are always frightened. However, these figures are very similar to those found when the question was previously asked in 1994 and 1989, suggesting that the TWA crash and the prolonged failure to pinpoint its exact cause have not resulted in heightened concern among air travelers.

Americans Most Likely to Trust Pilots to Maintain Safety
When asked to rate their trust in various sectors of commercial air travel, the public is most likely to give a vote of confidence to the pilots. Forty-six percent of Americans say they have a "great deal" of confidence in pilots to do all they can to maintain air safety, while another 45% have a "fair amount" of confidence in pilots. Air traffic controllers, commercial airline companies that fly across the country, and ground maintenance crews also receive relatively high confidence ratings, with the percentage of Americans expressing a "great deal" of confidence ranging from 24-37% and the rest mostly expressing a "fair amount" of confidence. The federal government is least likely to inspire trust; only 15% of Americans say they have a great deal of confidence in federal agencies to do all they can to maintain air safety, while 49% have a fair amount and 33% have little or none.

Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,061 adults, 18 years and older, conducted July 13-14, 1999. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Compared to a few years ago, do you now have much more confidence, somewhat more confidence, somewhat less confidence or much less confidence in the safety and efficiency provided by the airlines?

** Conducted for: Newsday/Star & Tribune/Arizona Republic/Dallas Morning News/Detroit Free Press

Have you ever flown on a commercial airliner?

** Conducted for: Newsday/Star & Tribune/Arizona Republic/Dallas Morning News/Detroit Free Press

How many air trips, if any, have you taken on a commercial airliner in the past twelve months -- counting each round trip as one trip?

** Conducted for: Newsday/Star & Tribune/Arizona Republic/Dallas Morning News/Detroit Free Press

When you fly, how often, if ever, are you frightened -- always, most of the time, sometimes, or never?

ASKED OF RESPONDENTS WHO HAVE EVER FLOWN ON A COMMERCIAL AIRLINE; N = 935; MARGIN OF ERROR = ± 3 PCT. PTS.

** Flown in past year

How much confidence do you have in the following to do all they can to maintain air safety -- a great deal, a fair amount, not too much or none at all? How much confidence do you have in ... [READ AND ROTATE A-F]?

Now thinking about TWA Flight 800 that crashed over Long Island last year (3 years ago) -- from what you've heard or read what do you believe was the cause of that crash? Was it [ROTATE CODES 1-3, THEN READ CODE 4]?

(vol.) volunteered response