Clinton's Popularity Paradox

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- In what ranks as a seemingly major paradox in presidential politics, the American public has given Bill Clinton the highest job approval ratings of his administration in the midst of what some observers had been calling the most serious crisis of his administration -- the current White House controversy over allegations of sexual misconduct and possible obstruction of justice.

The percent of the public who approve of the job Clinton is doing is now at 67%, the highest of his administration. One of the surprising findings from Gallup polling conducted since the crisis became public on Wednesday, January 21, has been the essential stability of his approval rating at a time when some anticipated that it would drop dramatically. The President's job approval rating has hovered around 60% since early in 1996. That number remained about the same in polling conducted through this past Monday night, in the middle of the crisis, and then jumped to the 67% figure in a one night poll conducted Wednesday, the night after the State of the Union address.

Several factors might account for the high ratings in the midst of controversy:

• The public's positive feelings about the way things are going in the country were reinforced by President Clinton in his State of the Union address which focused exclusively on the country's business and made no mention of the Lewinsky allegations. Previous Gallup data have documented the extent to which the public is positive about the current economic situation in this country, and Clinton himself now receives very high marks for his stewardship of the country's economy. The President's State of the Union speech on Tuesday night received positive reviews from those who watched it, and these viewers reported higher levels of confidence in Clinton's ability to lead the country after they watched the speech than before.
• The State of the Union address may have created the type of classic "bounce" in public opinion which has historically occurred after major domestic events which focus attention on the president - including speeches and political conventions. In 1996, for example, Clinton's job approval rating increased by 5% points immediately after his January 23rd State of the Union address.
• There has been an apparent public backlash against media coverage of the White House situation. Wednesday's Gallup poll included several questions designed to measure public assessment of media coverage of the recent events. The results are uniformly negative. Seventy-two percent of those polled said there has been too much coverage of the controversy, which is significantly higher than what Americans said, for example, during the Watergate crisis in 1973 and 1974. Additionally, by a margin of 55% to 37%, the public says that the media have acted irresponsibly in their coverage of the controversy, and three quarters of the public is convinced that the media's priority is to be first to report a news story, rather than making certain that the story is accurate before it is published. A full third of the public says that members of the news media are enjoying Clinton's difficulties, about twice the number who felt this way in 1987 during Reagan's troubles over the Iran-Contra affair.
• There are strongly negative feelings about what the public perceives to be a politically motivated independent prosecutor. By an almost two to one margin, Americans say that Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr is using the criminal justice system to try to achieve political ends, rather than conducting a fair and impartial investigation into the "legitimate issues relating to President Clinton". And, perhaps as a direct result of the highly publicized attacks on Starr delivered by Hillary Clinton on morning television talk shows this week, Starr's image has taken an abrupt negative turn. Although only about six out of ten Americans know enough about Starr to evaluate him, those who do rate him are considerably more negative than positive. (At the same time, the First Lady apparently did not convince everyone that her husband is the subject of a "vast right wing conspiracy": Americans divide equally when asked to say whether the controversy is more a result of a right wing conspiracy, or Clinton's own behavior.)
• Former White House intern Monica Lewinsky herself has now become the most negatively evaluated player in the controversy. Almost seven out of ten Americans interviewed on Wednesday night say they hold an unfavorable opinion of her, while only 13% hold a favorable opinion. Other measures also suggest a turning away from Lewinsky's side of the story. By a margin of 54% to 33%, Americans now say that they would believe Clinton rather than Lewinsky if the two make conflicting statements about what happened. Last weekend, the public was equally divided over which person they could believe. Also, the percent of Americans who believe the reported allegations about sexual relations, lying under oath and obstruction of justice on the part of the President has fallen significantly over the past week.

METHODOLOGY
The results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 672 adults. The survey was conducted on January 28, 1998. Results based on the national sample have a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one evening, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president?

Clinton Job Approval - Recent Trend
	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
1998 Jan 28	67%	28	5
1998 Jan 25-26	59%	37	4
1998 Jan 23-24	58%	36	6
1998 Jan 16-18	60%	30	10
1997 Jan 10-13**	62%	31	7
** previous highest rating

Overall, do you feel the news media have acted responsibly or irresponsibly in this matter?

Responsibly	37%
Irresponsibly	55
No opinion	8
	___
	100%

In general, which do you think the media are more concerned with in their coverage of the allegations about Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky: Being certain that a news story is accurate before they report it publicly, or, being the first media organization to report a news story? (ROTATED by half samples)

Be first	77%
Be accurate	19
Neither/other (vol.)	1
No opinion	3
	___
	100%

How do you think most journalists personally feel about President Clinton's recent troubles concerning these allegations; do you think they enjoy Clinton's difficulties, they are unhappy about the situation, or they don't much care one way or the other?

Enjoy	33%
Unhappy	22
Don't care	40
No opinion	5
	___
	100%

Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, Bill Clinton; next, Hillary Rodham Clinton; next Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr.

Favorability - Recent Trend
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Never heard of	No opinion
Bill Clinton
1998 Jan 28	63%	32	0	5
1998 Jan 25-26	53%	43	0	4
1998 Jan 23-24	57%	40	0	3
Hillary Rodham Clinton
1998 Jan 28	61%	34	1	4
1998 Jan 24-25	61%	33	1	5
1998 Jan 23-24	60%	35	1	4
Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr
1998 Jan 28	20%	38	21	21
1998 Jan 24-25	26%	27	24	23
1998 Jan 23-24	24%	24	29	23
Monica Lewinsky
1998 Jan 28	13%	69	*	18
1998 Jan 24-25	29%	49	1	21
1998 Jan 23-24	30%	50	1	19
* Less than 0.5%

Which of the following statements do you agree with more concerning the controversy involving Clinton and Monica Lewinsky -- it is mostly the result of a right wing conspiracy which is out to get Bill Clinton, or, it is mostly the result of Clinton's own behavior. (ROTATED by half samples)

Own behavior	46%
Conspiracy	44
Neither/other (vol.)	4
No opinion	6
	___
	100%