Politics

Gore And Bush In 2000?

Leading Candidates in Early Trial Heats for Presidential Nomination

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With scarcely a thousand days to go before the next presidential election, potential candidates are already jockeying for position within their respective parties. The latest Gallup poll suggests that Vice-President Al Gore is the clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination, while Texas Governor George W. Bush, son of the former president, holds a slight advantage in the contest for the Republican nomination.

In the poll of Democrats, including those who "lean" to the party, Gore receives 49% of the vote, compared with 15% for the Reverend Jesse Jackson, and 14% for the former New Jersey Senator, Rhodes Scholar and New York Knicks basketball player, Bill Bradley. Just 7% choose the House Democratic Leader, Dick Gephardt, who ran for president in 1988 and has recently distanced himself from the Clinton-Gore administration on several key legislative issues, including welfare, trade, and the latest agreement between the President and Republican Congressional leaders on balancing the budget.

Bush Leads Kemp in GOP Trial Heat
The poll of Republicans shows Bush favored by 22%, with another 15% going to the 1996 Republican vice-presidential candidate and former House member, Jack Kemp. Tied for third place are three other candidates: former Vice-President Dan Quayle with 10%, and -- at 9% each -- New Jersey Governor Christy Whitman and businessman Steve Forbes, a candidate in 1996.

Other 1996 candidates included in the Republican poll are political commentator Pat Buchanan, who receives 5% of the vote, and former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, with 3% of the vote. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who recently suggested he is considering a run for the presidency, receives 5% of the vote.

The Powell Factor
A Gallup poll last April showed that among Republicans, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Colin Powell, led all candidates with 37% of the vote, followed by Kemp and Bush with 14% each, and Quayle with 10%. In the current poll, Powell was not included because of his expressed lack of interest in running for president. Should he change his mind, however, he would likely be a strong candidate.

METHODOLOGY
The current results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,002 adults, conducted September 6-7, 1997. Among this group, 500 identify themselves as Democrats and 398 as Republicans (each category includes those who "lean" to the party). For results based on either the sample of Democrats or Republicans, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

(Asked of Democrats and those leaning Democratic, 500 respondents, ±5%)Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the year 2000. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president? (If unsure, asked:) As of today, to which one of the Democratic candidates do you lean most? (RANDOM ORDER)

  Sep 6-7
Vice President Al Gore 49%
The Reverend Jesse Jackson 14
Former NJ Senator Bill Bradley 13
House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt 7
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry 5
Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey 4
Other (vol.) 1
None (vol.) 5
No opinion 2
  ___
100%

(Asked of Republicans and those leaning Republican, 398 respondents, ±5%)Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the year 2000. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president? (If unsure, asked:) As of today, to which one of the Republican candidates do you lean most? (RANDOM ORDER)

  Sep 6-7
Texas Governor George W. Bush 22%
Former Congressman, Jack Kemp 15
Former NJ Senator Bill Bradley 13
Former Vice President Dan Quayle 10
Businessman Steve Forbes 9
New Jersey Governor Christy Whitman 9
Political commentator Pat Buchanan 5
House Speaker Newt Gingrich 5
Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson 5
Former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander 3
Missouri Senator John Ashcroft 3
New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith 2
Other (vol.) 4
None (vol.) 6
No opinion 2
  ___
100%
Gallup http://www.gallup.com/poll/4342/Gore-Bush-2000.aspx Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A +1 202.715.3030