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Slim Majority of Americans Still Approve of Bush's Job Performance

Slim Majority of Americans Still Approve of Bush's Job Performance

Ratings have been fairly steady for past two months

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The evolving political consensus seems to be that George W. Bush is in trouble, but an analysis of the trend in his job performance ratings over the little more than five months during which he has been president suggests caution in assuming that the tide of public opinion has turned dramatically away from him. According to the most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted June 28-July 1, a majority of Americans (52%) approve of the job Bush is doing as president, while only a third (34%) disapprove. This represents a continuation of approval ratings which are lower than his average from the first months of his presidency, but is little changed over the past two months.

For a man elected just eight months ago with 48% of the popular vote and a mountain of controversy, Bush's current 52% approval rating could be interpreted to mean that he is still four points ahead of the game. However, in a political environment where the political balance hovers around 50% -- in the popular and electoral vote for president, as well as in the division of the U.S. House and Senate -- approval ratings for Bush in the low to mid 50s are also an indication of how narrow his political advantage is in Washington. At a time when many say Bush needs to build his political base, he has failed to do so -- thus perhaps losing the expectations game.

Approval Down Slightly Since Term Began

The public's evaluation of Bush has declined from the very start of his presidency, but only moderately, and not at a consistent rate that would indicate steady erosion of public support for him. Rather, the greatest change Gallup has seen in support for Bush occurred this spring, after which public attitudes have been fairly stable.

Gallup's first measurement of Bush's job performance, in early February, found 57% of Americans approving and 25% disapproving. Bush's approval score rose to a high of 63% in the weeks following a presidential address to the nation in late February, during which he outlined his tax cut plan and other priorities. At one point in late March, however, his job approval was at 53%, essentially what it is today. Support for Bush remained fairly high in April, but fell to the low to mid 50s in May where it has remained since. In fact, Bush's current rating is nearly identical to one recorded by Gallup in early May when 53% approved and 33% disapproved.

George W. Bush Job Approval

Averaging Bush's approval ratings by month, he garnered a 59% approval score for February, enjoyed similar ratings in March (58%), jumped to 61% in April, fell to 55% in May, and remained at roughly that level (54%) in June. So, if any pattern can be identified, it is of recent stability in the public's reaction to Bush after a drop in May. The current rating of 52% approval is within the margin of error of the 55% ratings recorded recently, and thus it may be premature to guess whether this represents a more permanent downward shift in Bush's approval score or not.

Bush Ratings Lower Than Past Presidents

In historical terms, Bush's ratings since becoming president are fairly tepid. Only Bill Clinton fared worse in his first five months in office. Not only did Clinton enter office with lower ratings than did Bush, but Clinton's ratings declined at a much faster rate and, in May 1993, dipped below the symbolically important 50% mark, something Bush has thus far avoided.

Apart from Clinton, most presidents dating back to Eisenhower enjoyed job approval scores above 60% during their first months in office. And, unlike Bush, whose job approval score has dropped a few points since February, most other presidents since Eisenhower managed to maintain or expand on their initial job approval ratings.

The only presidents, prior to Bush, to see their ratings decline in this early phase of their presidencies were Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. However, unlike Clinton's ratings, which plunged into negative territory, Carter's ratings remained fairly high, dropping from 66% to 62%.

First Year Approval Ratings

It should be noted that the senior Bush's 15-point job approval increase is an anomaly, due to the public's support for their president after U.S. criticism of China for the June 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. Similarly, Ronald Reagan earned public sympathy early in 1981 after an attempt on his life by John Hinckley, Jr.

Bush Negatives Growing at a Standard Clip

The flip side of George W. Bush and Bill Clinton launching their presidencies with relatively low approval scores is that they entered office saddled with historically high levels of disapproval from the American public. After just one week in office, 25% of Americans told Gallup they disapproved of the job George W. Bush was doing as president, similar to the 30% who disapproved of Clinton at the start of his term.

However, an increase in public disapproval between February and July of a president's first year, as has been the case for Bush, is consistent with previous presidencies. The nine-point increase in Bush's negatives, from 25% to 34%, is slightly lower than the average of increase of 13 points set by the previous seven presidents. The largest jumps in public disapproval of a president during the first six months in office were seen for Ronald Reagan (whose disapproval score increased 17 points, from 13% to 30%) and Clinton (also 17 points).

First year Disapproval Ratings:
February vs. July

Bush Losing Support Among the Middle

The changes that have occurred in Bush's approval ratings since February appear to have occurred primarily among Americans situated in the political center: independents and self described moderates. Initially Bush enjoyed the approval of a majority of both these key groups. Now support among them has fallen to just 45%. Support for Bush has also fallen slightly among Democrats, with the percentage approving dropping from about a third to one quarter. At the same time, Republicans continue to support Bush at the same high rate they did at the start, in the 90% range.

Survey Methods

The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,014 adults, 18 years and older, conducted June 28-July 1, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

 

 

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

       
 

%

%

%

(NA) 2001 Jun 28-Jul 1

52

34

14

       

(NA) 2001 Jun 11-17

55

33

12

(NA) 2001 Jun 8-10

55

35

10

(NA) 2001 May 18-20

56

36

8

(NA) 2001 May 10-14

56

31

13

(NA) 2001 May 7-9

53

33

14

(NA) 2001 Apr 20-22

62

29

9

(NA) 2001 Apr 6-8

59

30

11

(NA) 2001 Mar 26-28

53

29

18

(NA) 2001 Mar 9-11

58

29

13

(NA) 2001 Mar 5-7

63

22

15

(NA) 2001 Feb 19-21

62

21

17

(NA) 2001 Feb 9-11

57

25

18

(NA) 2001 Feb 1-4

57

25

18




Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/4570/Slim-Majority-Americans-Still-Approve-Bushs-Job-Performance.aspx
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