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Public Does Not Favor Delaying or Canceling Tax Cuts

Public Does Not Favor Delaying or Canceling Tax Cuts

Would prefer balanced budget to tax cuts, but thinks deficit is okay during wartime and recession

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Congress returns to work today, and at the top of its to-do list is the new budget. This year's budget debate promises to be especially contentious, with the war on terrorism and a slow economy putting added pressure on the government's finances, and probably forcing a return to deficit spending. One of the key questions facing Congress is the fate of the tax cuts scheduled to go into effect this year as part of last year's tax cut legislation. Some Democrats, most notably Sen. Edward Kennedy, have proposed that the tax cuts be delayed or postponed.

The most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that most Americans prefer that Congress implement the tax cuts as planned. At the same time, when given a choice, two-thirds say they would prefer that Congress balance the budget instead of raising taxes, although a slim majority finds a budget deficit acceptable while the United States is conducting a war and experiencing a recession. When asked whom they trust more to make the tough choices involved in the federal budget, more favor President Bush's approach than the Democrats' in Congress.

Public Still Backs Tax Cuts

According to the poll, conducted Jan. 11-14, the public has, on balance, a positive view of the tax cuts passed last year. The 41% of Americans who say the cuts are a "good thing" for the country is the highest percentage Gallup has obtained since the law was passed last summer. About one in five Americans think the tax cuts are a bad thing for the country, which is down slightly from last fall, and four in 10 believe the tax cuts will not make much difference to the country either way.

New Tax Law:
Good Thing or Bad Thing for the Country?

Only about one in three Americans favor a delay (25%) or outright repeal of the tax cuts (11%). Thirty-eight percent feel they should be "kept as planned," and 21% go even further and say that they should take effect sooner than originally planned. Seven in 10 Republicans favor keeping the current tax cuts or accelerating them, as do 60% of independents. Democrats are more divided -- 46% want the tax cuts kept or accelerated, and 48% prefer they be canceled or postponed.

Scheduled Tax Cuts: What Should Be Done?
Jan 11-14, 2001

While support for proceeding with last year's tax cuts is high, if Americans had to choose between the tax cuts and a balanced budget they would opt for the latter. By a 62% to 33% margin, Americans say they would rather balance the budget, even if it meant postponing or canceling this year's tax cuts, as opposed to going forward with the tax cuts and running a deficit. Given the circumstances, however, both Republicans and Democrats in Congress seem to believe that a deficit is unavoidable, and few if any have called for a balanced budget this year.

The president and other Republicans are making the argument that a delay or postponement of the tax cuts this year is tantamount to a tax increase. The public does not appear to buy this argument, however. Just 31% would consider such a delay to be a tax increase, while 63% would not. There is little difference in this attitude by partisanship, and even 63% of Republicans would not consider a delay in the tax cut to be a tax increase.

The Deficit

The budget President Bush submits to Congress is expected to project a deficit this year, the first since 1997. When asked what is the main reason for the budget deficit, 40% of Americans say "overspending by the federal government." Thirty-one percent see the terrorist attacks and resulting war as next most responsible, while 17% say it is due to the economic recession. Only 9% say that the tax cuts passed last year are most responsible for the deficit.

What is The Reason For the Federal Budget Deficit?
Jan 11-14, 2001

These views vary little by subgroup, but Democrats are most likely to believe that last year's tax cuts are to blame (18%).

At this point, there is no clear consensus as to who is most responsible for the deficit, and so far the public does not assign a great deal of responsibility to political officeholders. One in four say President Bush is very responsible, 22% say the Republicans in Congress are very responsible and 19% say the Democrats in Congress are very responsible for the federal budget deficit.

Who is Responsible for the Federal Budget Deficit?
Jan 11-14, 2001

Despite the fact that Americans prefer balancing the budget to maintaining the tax cuts, the poll suggests that the public would accept the idea of running a deficit if circumstances warrant it. When asked whether the government should balance the budget when the country is in a recession or at war, 46% said it should, but 51% said the government should run a deficit if it is necessary.

Americans Prefer President's Approach to Budget Decisions

Fifty percent of the public says they favor President Bush's approach to "dealing with the tough choices involved in the federal budget," while 38% prefer the approach of the Democrats in Congress. Bush's advantage on this measure reflects the fact that Americans generally favor the president over Congress in response to this question. Since 1995, only once has the public preferred the opposition party to the president on budget issues. In July 1995, 48% preferred the Republicans' approach while 41% preferred President Clinton's.

However, Bush also benefits from the fact that the Republican Party currently owns a perceptual advantage over the Democratic Party on each of the economic issues addressed in this poll. The public favors the Republicans by 12 points on taxes (52% to 40% for the Democrats), nine points on an economic stimulus plan (47% to 38%), six points on the economy (47% to 41%), and six points on the federal budget deficit (47% to 41%).

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,008 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Jan. 11-14, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

How would you rate economic conditions in this country today – as very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?

 

 

Very
good

Somewhat
good

Somewhat
poor

Very
poor

No
opinion

           
 

%

%

%

%

%

2002 Jan 11-14

7

50

32

10

1

           

2001 Dec 14-16

5

45

37

12

1

2001 Sep 21-22

7

50

34

8

1

2001 Apr 20-22

10

57

25

7

1

2001 Feb 9-11

16

64

16

3

1

2001 Jan 15-16

24

58

14

4

*

2000 Jun 6-7

39

46

9

5

1

2000 Mar 10-12

42

44

10

3

1

1999 Jun 25-27

34

50

10

6

*

1999 Jan 8-10

41

48

8

3

*

1998 Jul 7-8

29

50

15

5

1

1998 Jan 25-26

24

57

14

4

1

1998 Jan 24-25

24

57

13

5

1

1998 Jan 23-24

24

57

15

4

*

1997 Oct 27-29

24

55

15

4

2

1997 Aug 22-25

17

52

21

9

1



Now thinking about a year from now, do you expect economic conditions in this country will be -- very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?

 

 

Very
good

Somewhat good

Somewhat poor

Very
poor

No
opinion

           
 

%

%

%

%

%

2002 Jan 11-14

15

63

16

5

1

           

2001 Dec 14-16

17

59

14

7

3

2001 Sep 21-22

21

56

15

5

3

2001 Apr 20-24

16

54

18

9

3

2001 Feb 9-11

18

53

21

6

2

2001 Jan 15-16

13

55

22

8

2

2000 Jun 6-7

24

56

10

5

5

2000 Mar 10-12

24

55

13

4

4

1999 Jun 25-27

21

55

15

7

2

1999 Jan 8-10

25

56

12

4

3

1998 Jul 7-8

19

54

14

7

6

1997 Oct 27-29

20

55

18

4

3



COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.11/Q.12)

 

 

Good now/ Good next year

Good now/ Poor next year

Poor now/ Good next year

Poor now/ Poor next year


No
opinion

           

2002 Jan 11-14

50%

6

26

15

3

           

2001 Dec 14-16

43%

6

32

16

3



When it comes to dealing with the tough choices involved in the federal budget, BOTH in deciding how much Americans should pay in taxes AND funding needed federal programs, whose approach do you prefer -- [ROTATED: President Bush's (or) the Democrats in Congress]?

BASED ON -- 527 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; ±5 PCT. PTS.

 

 


Bush's


Democrats

BOTH
(vol.)

NEITHER (vol.)

No
opinion

           

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

50%

38

1

2

9



As you may know, last year Congress passed and President Bush signed into law a bill cutting federal taxes for most Americans. Based on what you have heard or read, do you think that the tax cut law [ROTATED: was a good thing for the country, did not make much difference, or was a bad thing for the country]?

 

 


Good thing

Not make
much difference


Bad thing

No
opinion

         

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

41%

37

19

3

         

(NA) 2001 Sep 7-10 ^

32%

44

23

1

(NA) 2001 Aug 16-19 ^

36%

44

17

3

(NA) 2001 Jul 19-22 †

40%

39

18

3

         

^

WORDING: Do you think that the new tax cut law [ROTATED: will be a good thing for the country, will not make much difference, or will be a bad thing for the country]?

Asked of half sample.



As you may know, the tax cut law passed last year included additional cuts in the federal income tax rate which were scheduled for future years but have not yet taken effect. What do you think the government should do with those scheduled tax cuts -- [ROTATED: cancel them completely, postpone them, keep them as currently planned, (or) make them take effect sooner than originally planned]?

 

 

Cancel
them

Postpone them

Keep them as planned

Take effect sooner

No
opinion

           

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

11%

25

38

21

5



If those scheduled tax cuts are cancelled or postponed, would you consider that to be the same as an increase in your taxes, or not?

 

 

Yes, would consider

No, would not

No opinion

       

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

31%

63

6



Just your best guess, do you think the Republican leaders in Congress want to -- [ROTATED: raise taxes, keep taxes as they are now, or lower taxes]?

BASED ON -- 527 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; ±5 PCT. PTS.

 

Raise taxes

Keep as now

Lower taxes

No opinion

         

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

24%

33

38

5



Just your best guess, do you think the Democratic leaders in Congress want to -- [ROTATED: raise taxes, keep taxes as they are now, or lower taxes]?

BASED ON -- 481 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B; ±5 PCT. PTS.

 

Raise taxes

Keep as now

Lower taxes

No opinion

         

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

40%

34

20

6



As you may know, the federal government will have a budget deficit this year, which means the government spends more money than it takes in. Please tell me whether you think each of the following is -- very responsible, somewhat responsible, not very responsible, or not responsible at all -- for the budget deficit. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. George W. Bush

 


Very responsible


Somewhat responsible


Not very responsible

Not responsible at all


No
opinion

           

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

25%

37

19

15

4



B. The Republicans in Congress

 


Very responsible


Somewhat responsible


Not very responsible

Not responsible at all


No
opinion

           

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

22%

50

15

8

5



C. The Democrats in Congress

 


Very responsible


Somewhat responsible


Not very responsible

Not responsible at all


No
opinion

           

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

19%

49

19

8

5



Just your best guess, what is the main reason for the federal budget deficit -- [ROTATED: the terrorist attacks and the war in Afghanistan, the tax cuts passed last year, overspending by the federal government, (or) the current economic recession]?

 

Terrorist attacks and the war

Tax cuts passed
last year


Government overspending


Economic recession


No
opinion

           

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

31%

9

40

17

3



Which of the following comes closer to your view of the budget deficit -- [ROTATED: the government should run a deficit if necessary when the country is in a recession and is at war, (or) the government should balance the budget even when the country is in a recession and is at war]?

BASED ON -- 527 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; ±5 PCT. PTS.

 

 

Run a deficit
if necessary

Balance
the budget

No
opinion

       

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

51%

46

3



If you had to choose, would you rather -- [ROTATED: go forward with this year's scheduled tax cuts even if it meant the federal budget would run a deficit, (or) balance the budget even if it meant postponing or canceling this year's scheduled tax cuts]?

BASED ON -- 481 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B; ±5 PCT. PTS.

 

 

Go forward with scheduled tax cuts


Balance
the budget


MIXED/OTHER (vol.)


No
opinion

         

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

33%

62

1

4



Do you think it is appropriate -- or inappropriate -- for someone to criticize George W. Bush's economic policies?

 

 

 

Appropriate

Inappropriate

No opinion

       

(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14

58%

38

4



* -- Less than 0.5%

(vol.) -- Volunteered response

(NA) -- National adults


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/5221/public-does-favor-delaying-canceling-tax-cuts.aspx
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