PRINCETON NJ -- There has been no shortage of speculation about
the changes in the mental states and behavior of the American
public wrought by the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11. One great
advantage of scientific survey research is its ability to quantify
systematically changes in the attitudes and beliefs of the public,
in this case allowing us to compare post-attack measures with those
from before the attacks.
What follows is a list of 10 of the most important or unexpected
findings of our review of public opinion since Sept. 11:
1. Americans have stayed remarkably calm in the face of
all that has happened since Sept. 11
As is often the case, the American public is acting as a stable
anchor in the environment created by the current war on terrorism.
The public is refusing to be panicked or stampeded into mass
hysteria as warnings of new terrorist attacks, news about the war
in Afghanistan, and reports of the anthrax domestic threat have
continued to dominate the media. Although many Americans are
concerned that there may in fact be more acts of terrorism, the
vast majority tell us in our polling that they are not personally
worried about being the victim of such attacks, including being
exposed to anthrax, and just a very small percentage say that such
an eventuality is very likely. The public also expresses a great
deal of confidence that the government can handle major outbreaks
of anthrax if they occur.
2. There has also been no evidence of massive changes in
Americans' daily lives
There is little evidence from our scientific polling data that
large numbers of Americans are disrupting their daily lives, arming
themselves, buying antibiotics or in other ways dramatically
altering their quotidian behaviors. There have been reports from
gun shops across the country suggesting that large numbers of
Americans are arming themselves in the wake of the terrorist
attacks. In recent weeks there have also been reports that
Americans in large numbers are attempting to buy antibiotics and
get prescriptions for vaccines in light of the terrorist anthrax
incidents. We see photos of pharmacies in Mexico, with captions
implying that Americans were streaming south of the border to get
antibiotics, and reports of individuals rushing to their local
pharmacies.
Our polling data, however, give no evidence to support these
ideas -- at least not yet. Most Americans say they are engaging in
business as usual. The percentage of households nationwide that
report having a gun in the household is at 40%, virtually unchanged
from last year. Very small percentages of Americans say in our
surveys that they have attempted to get a prescription for either
an antibiotic or a vaccine as a result of the anthrax
incidents.
Indeed, the only behavior we have tested in which substantial
numbers of Americans say they are engaging is exercising more
caution with their mail -- something being done by about a fourth
of the nation.
3. Satisfaction with the way things are going in the
United States is up, and Americans remain in a "good
mood"
There would be every reason to expect that our indicators of
national satisfaction and personal mood would go down, not up, in
the light of the facts that the country has been attacked, over
5,000 people have been killed, there is a war in Afghanistan, and
people have died as a result of mysterious, frightening mailing of
letters laced with anthrax.
But, on the contrary, Americans respond to our polls by telling
us they are actually becoming more, rather than less, satisfied
with the way things are going. In fact, in two polls conducted
since Sept. 11, the percentage of Americans saying they are
satisfied has continued to climb. It now sits at 67%. This is just
a few points lower than the all-time high for this measure (which
we have been using since 1979) -- higher even than at many points
during the economic boom.
What about Americans' personal mood? In January we asked
Americans to describe their mood: good, neither good nor bad, or
bad. Eighty-three percent said they were in a good mood at that
point. We just re-asked the question. Almost exactly the same
number -- 78% -- said they were in a good mood. The number now in a
bad mood is only 9%, just slightly above the 7% who said they were
in a bad mood back in January.
4. Economic attitudes have stayed steady or actually
have gone up
The Cassandra-like predictions of economists and others that
there would be a very significant disintegration of consumer
attitudes after Sept. 11 have not yet come to pass.
The important fact to note: consumer confidence was already
falling significantly before Sept. 11. August was bad across almost
all surveys of consumers' economic attitudes, and a Gallup Poll
update on economic attitudes completed just before the 11th showed
a continuation of increased pessimism.
But, there were very few signs that the public's attitudes about
the economy continued to drop after the 11th. Indeed, some signs
suggested that Americans were rallying. By the time of our
regularly scheduled October update on economic attitudes,
assessments of the current economy were still a bit higher than
just before Sept. 11, and the assessment of the perceived direction
in which the economy was moving was also higher.
This is not to say that Americans aren't aware of problems. Our
polling in particular has found that there is deep concern over
jobs, and some personal financial indicators are still far from
robust. But the general sense from all of our data is that the
American people are saying the economy will weather this storm.
In fact, our UBS/Paine Webber/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism
revealed a sharp uptick in October. Investors apparently assessed
the situation and decided that the market was going to move
strongly up in the year ahead, rather than down. Investors also
indicated in this poll, by overwhelming numbers, that they believed
it was possible for the United States to have a full recovery while
at the same time engaging in the war in Afghanistan.
5. Media beginning to take some heat
It may not be fair, but there appears to be a developing
backlash of sorts against the media. It may well be that the
valiant attempt on the part of Americans to keep their chins up and
to remain optimistic does not mix well with the relentless drumbeat
of bad news from the media (no matter how necessary that bad news
may be). It may also be that Americans realize that the persistent
discussion of problems and crisis may to some extent be giving the
terrorists what they want.
Our Oct. 19-21 poll found that six out of 10 Americans feel that
the news media are overreacting in response to the attacks. Of
these, the vast majority say that this is helping the terrorists
achieve their goals. In similar fashion, an update poll taken by
ABC News on the evening of October 24 also found an increase in the
percentage of Americans who said the news media were exaggerating
in their reportage of the anthrax situation. A continuing
monitoring of attitudes toward the press in polling sponsored by
the Pew Foundation finds a significant decrease in the number of
Americans who rate the performance of the media as excellent since
the initial days after Sept. 11.
6. Massive support for military that is
sustained
There is little sign of deterioration in the American public's
support for the military action in Afghanistan. This is occurring
even as the number of more critical accounts of the way in which
that action is going has -- perhaps inevitably -- increased in
recent days. It is not uncommon for pollsters to be asked when the
support of the American public will begin to drop if the war
continues to drag on. We don't see any drop-off yet.
In the current situation, the desire on the part of the public
for military retaliation was evident in our polling from the very
first day of the terrorist attacks, at which time 92% supported
military action against terrorist organizations responsible for the
attacks.
That level of support has continued unabated in the weeks since.
A poll conducted the night the military action began -- Oct. 7 --
showed that exactly 90% approved of it. Eighty-eight percent
approve in our most recent poll, taken after almost two weeks of
fighting. A Newsweek poll completed Oct. 26 also shows no decline
in support for the war efforts.
7. Americans' trust, faith and confidence in their
government has shot up
Americans in recent years have evidenced a relatively sour
disposition toward government, particularly the government in
Washington. The Sept. 11 attacks and their aftermath have changed
that. Across a wide variety of measures, Americans are expressing
new faith in their government, and are significantly more likely to
have confidence in its decisions than they were before.
Ratings of Congress have zoomed to all-time highs, doubling in a
period of just one month. The percentage of Americans who say they
can trust the government to do what is right "just about always" or
"most of the time" is now at 60%, up from 42% in 2000. This marks
the highest level on that measure since 1968. A majority of
Americans now disagree with the statement that public officials
don't care what people like them think. Eighty-three percent have a
fair amount or great amount of confidence in the federal government
to handle international problems, up from 68% in early September,
and 77% have faith in the federal government when it comes to
domestic problems, up from 60%.
8. President Bush sustains extraordinary
ratings
A rally effect in ratings of the chief executive is to be
expected in times of international crisis. There were increases in
job approval following the Bay of Pigs invasions in the Kennedy
administration, after the taking of the Mayaguez in the Ford
administration, when the hostages were taken in Iran in the Carter
administration, and during the Persian Gulf War. But the current
level of reaction is unprecedented. Bush's job approval rating
jumped about 40 points in the course of two weeks in mid-September,
ultimately reaching the 90% level -- the highest in history. Bush
has averaged 88% in five different Gallup polls conducted since
Sept. 11.
It is rare for any president to reach an 80+% approval rating in
large part because of the partisan nature of American politics.
Americans who identify with the party not in the White House
generally tend to disapprove when asked to evaluate the president's
performance. In times of significant international crisis, these
partisan differences are severely mitigated, at least temporarily.
In the current situation, Democrats have joined with Republicans in
approving of the job Bush is doing as president.
How long will this last? Any statistic that comes in at the
extreme end of a distribution -- as is the case for Bush's current
presidential job approval level -- has a natural tendency to
regress back to the mean over time. The average job approval rating
in over 60 years of Gallup history has been in the mid-50% range.
Thus, it is unlikely that any president can sustain job approval
ratings in the upper 80s for months. But these are unprecedented
times, and there is no way of knowing at this point exactly how
long Bush's extraordinary ratings from the public will
continue.
9. Dramatic shift in priorities
Before Sept. 11, the majority of Americans said that the highest
priorities for Congress and the president were education, Social
Security, prescription drugs and the economy -- not foreign
affairs. In fact, the American public has given a low priority to
foreign affairs for many years. Very few Americans rated
international expertise as the top quality they sought in a
president in last fall's election, and very few said that handling
foreign affairs was a top priority as Bush was about to be
inaugurated this past January.
Now, that has changed. Foreign policy has jumped to the top of
the list of priorities for the president and Congress, zooming from
a 17% "extremely important" rating last January to 52% today.
Education, once the top issue on Bush's and the public's agenda,
has fallen, from a 61% extremely important rating this past summer
to 46% today. Similarly, the importance given to military and
defense issues has more than doubled.
10. New York up in terms of perceived safety as a place
in which to live and work
More Americans say that New York City and Washington, D.C. are
safe to live and work in today than was the case last year. This is
an unexpected finding. We certainly might have felt that Americans
would be less secure about these two cities in the aftermath of
Sept. 11, but our mid-October crime update poll shows otherwise. In
fact, ratings of the safety of a list of 14 different cities for
the most part went up rather than down this year, continuing a
trend of increasingly positive perceptions that has been underway
for about 10 years. New York and Washington are still nowhere near
the top of the list of "safe cities" (Minneapolis and Seattle are
tops), but on a relative basis they have lost nothing this year.
The safety ratings of New York City, in fact, actually gained more
this year than many of the other cities on the list.
