GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- While members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences actually decide the winners of the Academy Awards, this fact does not hinder predictions for who the winners should be; whether in the media or around water coolers, the Oscars are always a hot topic. A Gallup poll conducted March 18-20 asked the public to give its Oscar picks. Perhaps reinforcing the expectation of very tight races, the public does not have overwhelming favorites, but does show a decided preference for a set of nominees in each of three main categories: "A Beautiful Mind" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" for Best Picture, Russell Crowe and Denzel Washington for Best Actor, and Nicole Kidman, Halle Berry and Sissy Spacek for Best Actress.
Best Picture
For Best Picture, it's a race between "A Beautiful Mind" -- the story of Nobel Prize-winning mathematician John Nash -- and the cinematic rendering of Tolkien's immortal tale "Lord of the Rings." Specifically, 28% of Americans say they would like to see "A Beautiful Mind" win, while 25% choose "Lord of the Rings." "Moulin Rouge" is chosen by 9%, while "Gosford Park" and "In the Bedroom" are each chosen by 3% of Americans. Given the poll's 3% margin of error, the race between "A Beautiful Mind" and "Lord of the Rings" is essentially a tie.
| Best Picture of the Year? |
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| March 18-20, 2002 |
Best Actor and Best Actress
Similarly close races exist for the Best Actor and Best Actress awards. For Best Actor, 27% pick Russell Crowe, star of "A Beautiful Mind" and winner of Best Actor last year for his role in "Gladiator." Coming in a close second is Denzel Washington, nominated for the film "Training Day," whom 24% of Americans would like to see win. Again, the race between the top two is essentially a tie. Rounding out the list are Will Smith (14%) for "Ali," Sean Penn (11%) for "I Am Sam," and Tom Wilkinson (3%) for "In the Bedroom."
| Best Actor in a Leading Role? |
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| March 18-20, 2002 |
For Best Actress, 22% think Nicole Kidman should win for her role in "Moulin Rouge," while 20% think Halle Berry should win for "Monster's Ball." Sissy Spacek, star of "In the Bedroom," is right up there with Kidman and Berry, chosen by 17% of Americans. Renee Zellweger, nominated for the title role in "Bridget Jones's Diary," is the choice of 10% of the public, and Judi Dench is favored by 6% for her work in the film "Iris."
| Best Actress in a Leading Role? |
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| March 18-20, 2002 |
Breaking the Tie
One way to examine these tight races in a different light is to focus on Americans who attend movies most often, as they might have more qualified opinions on this subject than does the general population. Movie attendance varies greatly among Americans: 33% have not seen a movie in the theater in the last year, 37% have seen between one and four movies, and 29% have seen five or more. Indeed, in all three Oscar categories mentioned above, at least 21% of the general public -- primarily non-moviegoers -- does not express an opinion on whom they would like to see win.
The most frequent moviegoers (those who have seen at least four movies in the last year) prefer "A Beautiful Mind" to "Lord of the Rings" for Best Picture, by a 40% to 29% margin. Among the same group, Crowe is favored for Best Actor over Washington, by 38% to 25%. Those who attend movies most frequently also show a slight preference for Kidman in the Best Actress category, preferring her by a 31% to 23% margin to Berry. Given the 8% margin of error for the smaller sample of most frequent moviegoers, the two actresses are statistically tied.
Demographics Make a Difference
The favorite for Best Picture varies somewhat by age. Almost a third of those aged 50 and older (31%) say they would like to see "A Beautiful Mind" win, while just 13% of people in that age range pick "Lord of the Rings." Among those under age 50, 33% select "Lord of the Rings," while 26% select "A Beautiful Mind."
| Best Picture of the Year: By Age |
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| March 18-20, 2002 |
Much has been made of the races of this year's nominees for Best Actor and Best Actress. For the first time since 1972, three blacks have been nominated in these two categories in the same year. Not surprisingly, the public's picks vary by race. For Best Actor, Crowe is picked by a third of white Americans (32%), while 19% of whites pick Washington. Among nonwhite Americans (a category that includes blacks and Asians and others who do not identify themselves as "white"), two black actors are the top picks: Washington, with 41%, and Smith, with 29%. Crowe is picked by only 7% of nonwhite Americans. For Best Actress, Kidman is favored over Berry among white Americans by 24% to 13%. But among nonwhites, Berry is picked by 43%, compared to 19% for Kidman.
Unlike the situation in other years, there does not appear to be one particular movie this year that has strongly gender-specific appeal. There is little difference between men and women in terms of their picks for Best Picture.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,009 adults, 18 years and older, conducted March 18-20, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
How many movies, if any, have you attended in a movie theater in the past 12 months?
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|
|
5 or |
No opinion |
|
|
|||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|||
|
2002 Mar 18-20 |
33 |
37 |
29 |
1 |
5.0 |
2 |
||
|
2001 Mar 16-18 |
34 |
40 |
26 |
* |
4.4 |
2 |
||
|
1995 Apr 10-17 ^ |
34 |
35 |
31 |
-- |
||||
|
1994 Mar 11-13 † |
34 |
38 |
28 |
-- |
||||
|
1993 Mar 12-14 † |
37 |
35 |
26 |
2 |
||||
|
1988 Dec 4-7 † |
45 |
26 |
29 |
-- |
||||
|
^ |
U.S. News and World Report/CNN/IBM/Gallup |
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† |
WORDING: About how many times did you, yourself, go out to a movie theater to see a movie within the past twelve months? |
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|
* |
Less than 0.5% |
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At the Academy Awards ceremony this year, which one of the following movies would you like to see win the Oscar award for Best Picture of the year? [ROTATED: A Beautiful Mind, Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, (or) Moulin Rouge]
|
A Beautiful Mind |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2002 Mar 18-20 |
28% |
3 |
3 |
25 |
9 |
32 |
At the Academy Awards ceremony this year, which one of the following actors would you like to see win the Oscar award for Best Actor in a Leading Role? [ROTATED: Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind, Sean Penn in I Am Sam, Will Smith in Ali, Denzel Washington in Training Day, (or) Tom Wilkinson in In The Bedroom]
BASED ON -- 508 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; ±5 PCT. PTS.
|
Russell Crowe |
Sean |
Will |
Denzel Washington |
Tom Wilkinson |
No |
|
|
2002 Mar 18-20 |
27% |
11 |
14 |
24 |
3 |
21 |
At the Academy Awards ceremony this year, which one of the following actresses would you like to see win the Oscar award for Best Actress in a Leading Role? [ROTATED: Halle Barry in Monster's Ball, Judi Dench in Iris, Nicole Kidman in Moulin Rouge, Sissy Spacek in In the Bedroom, (or) Renee Zellweger in Bridget Jones's Diary]
BASED ON -- 501 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B; ±5 PCT. PTS.
|
Halle Barry |
Judi |
Nicole Kidman |
Sissy Spacek |
Renee Zellweger |
No |
|
|
2002 Mar 18-20 |
20% |
6 |
22 |
17 |
10 |
25 |
