Americans Sharply Divided on Seriousness of Global Warming

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- For those paying close attention to the global warming issue, 2002 has brought conflicting signs about whether the climate-change issue is as grave as some believe. First, an Antarctic ice shelf the size of Rhode Island melted to pieces through the month of February following unusually warm regional temperatures. Then last week, a study released in the journal Science concluded that the current global warm spell could just be part of the Earth's natural temperature cycles.

By its own admission, the public is not well positioned to make much sense of this all. In a recent Gallup poll, only 17% of Americans say they understand the issue of global warming "very well." Another 52% say they understand it "fairly well" while about one-third say "not very well" or "not at all."

But Americans do have opinions about the global warming problem, and these have been fairly consistent in recent years. The survey evidence suggests that the public is divided roughly into thirds on the issue, with one-third viewing it as a very serious problem, one-third viewing it as a moderate problem, and one-third only mildly concerned or discounting the problem altogether.

First, it should be noted that a majority of Americans (53%) believe that the effects of climatic change have already begun to occur, while another 5% believe they will start within a few years and 13% expect these effects to happen in their lifetimes. Only 17% believe the effects will be postponed to future generations and just 9% are completely skeptical, saying that deleterious effects from global warming will never happen.

However, when asked how much they worry about the "the greenhouse effect or global warming," just under a third of Americans, 29%, say they worry a great deal about it; another 29% worry a fair amount, while 40% worry only a little or not at all.

Degree of Public Worry About "Greenhouse Effect" or Global Warming

March 4-7, 2002

Global Warming Ranks Well Below Other Green Issues

Since Gallup started measuring this in 1989, the percentage worried "a great deal" about global warming has ranged from 24% (in 1997) to 40% (in 2000) -- always placing the issue at the bottom of the list of 10 or more environmental issues rated, with only acid rain ranking lower. In the current survey, strong concern about damage to the Earth's ozone layer, a related problem, is somewhat higher at 38%. However, water, soil and air pollution issues lead the list, with more than 50% of Americans greatly apprehensive about these.

% Worried "a Great Deal" About

March 4-7, 2002

The fact that about a third of Americans are highly concerned about global warming is confirmed by another question that asks respondents whether global warming will pose a serious threat within their own lifetimes. Only 33% of Americans believe it will. Naturally, this outlook differs by age, with 47% of those 18-29 fearing that global warming will pose a threat in their lifetimes, compared to 36% of those aged 30-49, 25% of those 50-64 and just 15% of those 65 and older.

Recent Decline in Environmental Concern

Concern about most environmental problems, not just global warming, has declined sharply over the past two years, most likely due to increasing concern about the economy and terrorism over the same period. Gallup sees this both in the recent trends in concern about specific environmental issues, and in a general question that asks respondents how concerned they are about the overall quality of the environment. Last year at this time, 42% were concerned a great deal about the environment, compared to 35% today. Perhaps environmental problems look less serious by contrast with the economy and the terrorist threat, or the environment has been squeezed out of media headlines, or both.

% Concerned "a Great Deal" About Global Warming

Another indication that Americans are sharply divided on the global warming issue comes from a question that asks about the reliability of media coverage of the issue. One-third of Americans believe that news reports of the problem are generally correct while another third believe they are exaggerated and an equal number believe they are underestimated. Attitudes on this question have not changed since 1997.

Perceptions About Media Coverage of Global Warming

March 4-7 , 2002

Americans Blame Human Activity for Warming Trend

The global warming debate is not about whether the Earth's temperature has risen -- most scientists agree it has warmed slightly over the past century. The controversy is over whether that warming is the result of human activities, specifically that carbon dioxide emissions such as auto fumes are resulting in a "greenhouse effect" --trapping heat in the Earth's atmosphere. This is the debate to which the new Science journal article speaks.

Gallup trends on this subject suggest the public is sympathetic to the argument that humans are responsible for the warming. A question asked last year found 61% of the public believing the increase in the Earth's temperature is due more to human activities; just 33% attributed it to natural causes.

From what you have heard or read, do you believe increases in the Earth's temperature over the last century are due more to -- [ROTATED: the effects of pollution from human activities (or) natural changes in the environment that are not due to human activities]?

 

	Human activities	Natural causes	No opinion
2001 Mar 5-7	61%	33	6

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,006 adults, 18 years and older, conducted March 4-7, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

I'm going to read you a list of environmental problems. As I read each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all. First, how much do you personally worry about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. Pollution of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs

 

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7	53	32	12	3	*
2001 Mar 5-7	58	29	10	3	*
2000 Apr 3-9	66	24	8	2	*
1999 Apr 13-14	61	30	7	2	*
1999 Mar 12-14	55	30	12	3	*
1991 Apr 11-14	67	21	8	3	1
1990 Apr 5-8	64	23	9	4	--
1989 May 4-7	72	19	5	3	1

B. Air pollution

 

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7	45	33	18	4	*
2001 Mar 5-7	48	34	14	4	*
2000 Apr 3-9	59	29	9	3	*
1999 Apr 13-14	52	35	10	3	*
1999 Mar 12-14	47	33	16	4	*
1997 Oct 27-28	42	34	18	5	1
1991 Apr 11-14	59	28	10	4	*
1990 Apr 5-8	58	29	9	4	*
1989 May 4-7	63	24	8	4	*

C. Damage to the earth's ozone layer

 

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7	38	29	21	11	1
2001 Mar 5-7	47	28	16	8	1
2000 Apr 3-9	49	29	14	7	1
1999 Apr 13-14	44	32	15	8	1
1997 Oct 27-28	33	27	25	13	2
1991 Apr 11-14	49	24	16	8	4
1990 Apr 5-8	43	28	15	10	4
1989 May 4-7	51	26	13	8	2

D. The loss of tropical rain forests

 

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7	38	27	21	12	2
2001 Mar 5-7	44	32	15	8	1
2000 Apr 3-9	51	25	14	9	1
1999 Apr 13-14	49	30	14	6	1
1991 Apr 11-14	42	25	21	10	2
1990 Apr 5-8	40	24	19	14	3
1989 May 4-7	42	25	18	12	3

E. The "greenhouse effect" or global warming

 

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7	29	29	23	17	2
2001 Mar 5-7	33	30	22	13	2
2000 Apr 3-9	40	32	15	12	1
1999 Apr 13-14	34	34	18	12	2
1999 Mar 12-14	28	31	23	16	2
1997 Oct 27-28	24	26	29	17	4
1991 Apr 11-14	35	27	22	12	5
1990 Apr 5-8	30	27	20	16	6
1989 May 4-7	35	28	18	12	7

F. Contamination of soil and water by toxic waste

 

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7	53	29	15	3	*
2001 Mar 5-7	58	27	12	3	*
2000 Apr 3-9	64	25	7	4	*
1999 Apr 13-14	63	27	7	3	*
1999 Mar 12-14	55	29	11	5	*
1991 Apr 11-14	62	21	11	5	1
1990 Apr 5-8	63	22	10	5	*
1989 May 4-7	69	21	6	3	*

G. Acid rain

 

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7	25	23	31	19	2
2001 Mar 5-7	28	28	26	16	2
2000 Apr 3-9	34	31	19	15	1
1999 Apr 13-14	29	35	23	11	2
1991 Apr 11-14	34	30	20	14	3
1990 Apr 5-8	34	30	18	14	4
1989 May 4-7	41	27	19	11	3

H. Pollution of drinking water

 

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7	57	25	13	5	*
2001 Mar 5-7	64	24	9	3	*
2000 Apr 3-9	72	20	6	2	*
1999 Apr 13-14	68	22	7	3	*
1991 Apr 11-4	67	19	10	3	1
1990 Apr 5-8	65	22	9	4	*

I. Extinction of plant and animal species

 

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7	35	30	22	12	1
2001 Mar 5-7	43	30	19	7	1
2000 Apr 3-9	45	33	14	8	*

J. Maintenance of the nation's energy supply of fresh water for household needs

 

	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7	50	28	17	5	*
2001 Mar 5-7	35	34	19	10	2
2000 Apr 3-9	42	31	14	12	1
* Less than 0.5%

SUMMARY TABLE: CONCERN ABOUT ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

 

2002 Mar 4-7 (sorted by "a great deal")	Great deal	Fair amount	Only a little/ Not at all
	%	%	%
Pollution of drinking water	57	25	18
Pollution of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs	53	32	15
Contamination of soil and water by toxic waste	53	29	18
Maintenance of the nation's supply of fresh water for household needs	50	28	22
Air pollution	45	33	22
Damage to the earth's ozone layer	38	29	32
The loss of tropical rain forests	38	27	33
Extinction of plant and animal species	35	30	34
The "greenhouse effect" or global warming	29	29	40
Acid rain	25	23	50

Next, thinking about the issue of global warming, sometimes called the "greenhouse effect," how well do you feel you understand this issue -- would you say very well, fairly well, not very well, or not at all?

 

	Very well	Fairly well	Not very well	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7	17	52	25	6	*
2001 Mar 5-7	15	54	24	6	1
1997 Nov 6-9	16	45	28	10	1
1992 Jan	11	42	22	22	3
* Less than 0.5%

Which of the following statements reflects your view of when the effects of global warming will begin to happen -- [ROTATED: they have already begun to happen, they will start happening within a few years, they will start happening within your lifetime, they will not happen within your lifetime, but they will affect future generations, (or) they will never happen]?

 

	Already begun	Within a few years	Within your lifetime	Not within lifetime, but affect future generations		Will never happen	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%		%
2002 Mar 4-7	53	5	13	17	9		3
2001 Mar 5-7	54	4	13	18	7		4
1997 Nov 6-9	48	3	14	19	9		7

Thinking about what is said in the news, in your view is the seriousness of global warming -- [ROTATED: generally exaggerated, generally correct, or is it generally underestimated]?

 

		Generally exaggerated	Generally correct	Generally underestimated	No opinion
		%	%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7		31	32	32	5
2001 Mar 5-7		30	34	32	4
1997 Nov 6-9 ^		31	34	27	8
^	Based on half sample

Do you think that global warming will pose a serious threat to you or your way of life in your lifetime?

 

		Yes	No	No opinion
		%	%	%
2002 Mar 4-7		33	65	2
2001 Mar 5-7		31	66	3
1997 Nov 6-9 ^		25	69	6
^	Based on half sample