Americans Remain Negative Towards Cuba

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The outcome of former President Jimmy Carter's current trip to Cuba remains unclear at this point, but a review of Gallup polling reveals that, despite Americans' quite unfavorable views towards Cuba, there is support for restoring diplomatic relations with the country. There is also at least some support for the idea of restoring economic relations.

Carter is meeting with Cuban President Fidel Castro and Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, and met with two Cuban dissidents. Carter is visiting industrial sites and toured Cuba's Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology. This visit marks the first time that a U.S. president has been to the island since Calvin Coolidge's visit in 1928. Media reports indicate that the purpose of Carter's trip is to look into ways of improving relations between the United States and Cuba. Carter has the official okay from the Bush administration to be in Cuba (something that is still illegal), but the former president is by no means on an official mission from the U.S. government. Indeed, President George W. Bush is expected to make what has been characterized as a "tough" speech on Cuba next week.

Carter himself has a quite positive image among Americans. But despite many of his high profile activities since leaving office and his best-selling books, his retrospective approval rating is lower today than the ratings of three other ex-presidents who are still living. Carter averaged only a 45% job approval rating while in office, the lowest of any of the last eight presidents. We recently asked Americans to indicate whether now, looking back, they approve or disapprove of how he did in office -- his retrospective approval rating jumped to 60%, an increase of 15 points. This is a solid increase. Of the last eight presidents, only Ronald Reagan's retrospective approval has increased more. His leaped from a 53% average while in office to a 73% retrospective approval now. Still, Carter's current 60% rating is below not only Reagan's but George H. W. Bush's (69%) and JFK's (83%).

The retrospective approval question does not explicitly ask Americans to rate how the president has done since leaving office, but instead asks for a rating of how he did while president. However, the assumption is that the retrospective image of a president can be affected by his activities and public visibility in the years after leaving the White House. Thus, activities like the Cuba trip on which Carter is now engaged may be a factor in influencing his image and these ratings.

In the last 25 years, Gallup has asked Americans seven times whether or not diplomatic relations with Cuba should be restored. In all but one of these surveys, a majority of the public has said "yes." Sixty-three percent approved of the idea back in 1974, and 56% approved the last time Gallup asked, in 2000. There is slightly less support for the idea of lifting the economic trade embargo with Cuba, but such an idea won by a 48% to 42% margin when Gallup last asked about it, also in 2000.

Suppose that on Election Day this year you could vote on key issues as well as candidates. Please tell me whether you would vote for or against each one of the following propositions.

The overall image of Cuba in the eyes of Americans remains negative, although less so than at other points within the last decade.

Opinion of Cuba

A further analysis of these results shows, perhaps surprisingly, that there are essentially no differences by party identification.

Republicans and conservatives are, however, less likely than Democrats and liberals to believe that the trade embargo with Cuba should be lifted.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of at least 1,000 adults, 18 years and older. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.