GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- With less than five months until the mid-term elections for Congress, the two major parties are each positioned with significant strengths in very specific -- and distinctly different -- areas. The American public gives Republicans in Congress a clear advantage over Democrats on terrorism, military and defense, and the economy, while Democrats lead on domestic problems such as education, Social Security, and prescription drugs for the elderly. All of these issues are viewed as important by most Americans, which may help explain why voters are essentially divided when asked which party's candidate they are likely to support in the forthcoming November Congressional elections.
Republicans Soar on Terrorism and Defense, Democrats on Social Security and Prescription Drugs
The May 28-29 poll asked Americans two questions about 15 issues facing the nation: 1) how important each issue will be in the elections for Congress this November, and 2) whether the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress can better handle each issue.
The graph below arranges each issue according to its relative importance to Americans (the vertical position of the issue on the graph), and the extent to which a particular party is perceived as doing a better job handling it (the horizontal position of the symbol for each issue).
| Salience of Issues vs. Political Advantage on Issues |
 |
| KEY: Issue (Importance, Advantage) |
Issues in the upper right hand quadrant of this chart are valuable strengths for Republicans. They are above average in terms of importance and in terms of the public's perception that the Republican Party is best suited to handle it. Americans are significantly more likely to choose Republicans in Congress rather than Democrats as doing the best job on military and defense issues (with a 36 percentage point advantage), terrorism (with a 32 percentage point advantage), and the economy (with a nine percentage point advantage).
Issues in the upper left hand quadrant are valuable strengths for Democrats -- above average in terms of importance and in terms of relative Democratic strength. These include prescription drugs for older Americans (with a 16 percentage point Democratic lead), Social Security (with a 10 percentage point lead), and education (with a six percentage point lead).
There are several other issues tested in the poll that are not as important to Americans. For example, foreign affairs, energy, a patient's bill of rights, the environment, and the problems of ordinary Americans all rate in the middle of the issues tested in the poll. Democrats have an advantage on the environment, the problems of ordinary Americans, and a patient's bill of rights. Republicans have a clear lead on foreign affairs and have a slight two-percentage point lead on energy policy.
Republicans also have an advantage on dealing with moral values, the federal budget deficit, gun policy, and taxes, all of which the public views as relatively less important.
Republicans and Democrats Tied in Congressional Trial Heat
The race for control of the U.S. House is now essentially tied, based on Gallup's generic ballot question, reflecting, at least in part, the fact that currently each party is perceived as having particular strengths on specific, highly important issues.
The current poll shows that 46% of registered voters say they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district if the elections were held today, while 45% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate. Gallup polling on the mid-term elections has shown a close race since the beginning of the year. In January and February, Republican candidates edged a slight lead over Democratic candidates. The race was even in March, but Democratic candidates managed to gain a slight advantage over Republicans in April.
| If the elections for Congress were being
held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your
Congressional district? Among Registered Voters |
 |
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, 18 years and older, conducted May 28-29, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Thinking ahead to the elections for Congress this November, how important is it to you that the president and Congress deal with each of the following issues in the next year -- is it -- extremely important, very important, moderately important, or not that important? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
[BASED ON --506-- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A]
A. The economy
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
38% |
45 |
14 |
2 |
1 |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
44% |
43 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
54% |
36 |
10 |
* |
* |
|
2001 Jan 10-14 |
34% |
51 |
12 |
2 |
1 |
B. Education
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
44% |
42 |
10 |
4 |
* |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
46% |
38 |
14 |
2 |
* |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
46% |
37 |
14 |
3 |
* |
|
2001 Jun 8-10 |
61% |
32 |
6 |
1 |
* |
C. Foreign affairs
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
30% |
39 |
21 |
7 |
3 |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
34% |
43 |
19 |
3 |
1 |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
52% |
34 |
12 |
1 |
1 |
|
2001 Jan 10-14 |
17% |
40 |
33 |
7 |
3 |
D. Military and defense issues
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
39% |
43 |
14 |
3 |
1 |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
42% |
40 |
15 |
3 |
* |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
57% |
31 |
11 |
1 |
* |
|
2001 Jan 10-14 |
26% |
42 |
26 |
4 |
2 |
E. Prescription drugs for older Americans
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
37% |
40 |
17 |
5 |
1 |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
37% |
36 |
21 |
6 |
* |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
37% |
32 |
26 |
5 |
* |
|
2001 Jun 8-10 |
49% |
36 |
12 |
3 |
* |
F. Social Security
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
41% |
39 |
16 |
3 |
1 |
G. Terrorism
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
53% |
35 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
62% |
31 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
70% |
25 |
4 |
1 |
* |
H. A patient's bill of rights
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
25% |
43 |
22 |
6 |
4 |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
29% |
33 |
28 |
7 |
3 |
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
30% |
32 |
30 |
6 |
2 |
|
2001 Jun 8-10 |
40% |
37 |
16 |
5 |
2 |
I. Energy policies
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
24% |
43 |
26 |
5 |
2 |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
25% |
36 |
34 |
4 |
1 |
|
2001 Jan 10-14 |
26% |
43 |
25 |
2 |
4 |
J. The federal budget deficit
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
25% |
37 |
28 |
8 |
2 |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
30% |
35 |
28 |
5 |
2 |
K. Taxes
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
26% |
39 |
27 |
5 |
3 |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
30% |
38 |
27 |
4 |
1 |
|
2001 Jan 10-14 |
31% |
42 |
21 |
4 |
2 |
L. Gun policy
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
27% |
28 |
26 |
15 |
4 |
M. Moral values
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
36% |
31 |
18 |
12 |
3 |
N. The problems of ordinary Americans
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
26% |
39 |
26 |
7 |
2 |
O. The environment
|
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
24% |
41 |
29 |
5 |
1 |
|
2001 Jan 10-14 |
26% |
43 |
25 |
5 |
1 |
|
JUN. 2001-JAN 2002 WORDING: Next, how important is it to you that the president and Congress deal with each of the following issues in the next year -- is it -- extremely important, very important, moderately important, or not that important? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]? (Asked of a full sample in each poll prior to May 2002). |
SUMMARY TABLE: ISSUES SALIENCE
|
2002 May 28-29 |
Extremely |
Extremely/ |
|
% |
% |
|
|
Terrorism |
53 |
88 |
|
Education |
44 |
86 |
|
Social Security |
41 |
80 |
|
Military and defense issues |
39 |
82 |
|
The economy |
38 |
83 |
|
Prescription drugs for older Americans |
37 |
77 |
|
Moral values |
36 |
67 |
|
Foreign affairs |
30 |
69 |
|
Gun policy |
27 |
55 |
|
The problems of ordinary Americans |
26 |
65 |
|
Taxes |
26 |
60 |
|
The federal budget deficit |
25 |
62 |
|
A patient's bill of rights |
25 |
68 |
|
The environment |
24 |
65 |
|
Energy policies |
24 |
67 |
Do you think the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress would do a better job of dealing with each of the following issues and problems? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
[BASED ON --497-- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B]
A. The economy
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
43% |
34 |
13 |
10 |
B. Education
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
35% |
41 |
14 |
10 |
C. Foreign affairs
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
46% |
27 |
15 |
12 |
D. Military and defense issues
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
59% |
23 |
8 |
10 |
E. Prescription drugs for older Americans
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
29% |
45 |
13 |
13 |
F Social Security
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
33% |
43 |
14 |
10 |
G. Terrorism
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
51% |
19 |
19 |
11 |
H. A patient's bill of rights
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
29% |
42 |
11 |
18 |
I. Energy policies
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
37% |
35 |
15 |
13 |
J. The federal budget deficit
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
40% |
36 |
13 |
11 |
K. Taxes
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
43% |
36 |
11 |
10 |
L. Gun policy
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
43% |
35 |
10 |
12 |
M. Moral values
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
46% |
25 |
18 |
11 |
N. The problems of ordinary Americans
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
30% |
44 |
15 |
11 |
O. The environment
|
|
|
NO DIFFER-ENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
28% |
49 |
12 |
11 |
SUMMARY TABLE: CONGRESS HANDLING OF ISSUES/PROBLEMS
|
2002 Apr 5-7 |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
||
|
Military and defense issues |
59 |
23 |
+36 |
|
|
Terrorism |
51 |
19 |
+32 |
|
|
Moral values |
46 |
25 |
+21 |
|
|
Foreign affairs |
46 |
27 |
+19 |
|
|
The economy |
43 |
34 |
+9 |
|
|
Gun policy |
43 |
35 |
+8 |
|
|
Taxes |
43 |
36 |
+7 |
|
|
The federal budget deficit |
40 |
36 |
+4 |
|
|
Energy policies |
37 |
35 |
+2 |
|
|
Education |
35 |
41 |
-6 |
|
|
Social Security |
33 |
43 |
-10 |
|
|
A patient's bill of rights |
29 |
42 |
-13 |
|
|
The problems of ordinary Americans |
30 |
44 |
-14 |
|
|
Prescription drugs for older Americans |
29 |
45 |
-16 |
|
|
The environment |
28 |
49 |
-21 |
|
|
+ |
Advantage indicates Republican lead |
|||
|
- |
Advantage indicates Democratic lead |
|||
If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district -- [ROTATE: 1) The Democratic Party's candidate or 2) The Republican Party's candidate]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: 1) The Democratic Party's candidate or 2) The Republican Party's candidate]?
|
Democratic |
Republican |
Undecided/ |
|
|
National Adults |
% |
% |
% |
|
(NA) 2002 May 28-29 |
44 |
45 |
11 |
|
(NA) 2002 Apr 29-May 1 |
47 |
43 |
10 |
|
(NA) 2002 Apr 5-7 |
50 |
40 |
10 |
|
(NA) 2002 Mar 22-24 |
45 |
43 |
12 |
|
(NA) 2002 Feb 8-10 |
42 |
44 |
14 |
|
(NA) 2002 Jan 25-27 |
45 |
44 |
11 |
|
(NA) 2002 Jan 11-14 |
44 |
44 |
12 |
|
(NA) 2001 Dec 14-16 |
44 |
46 |
10 |
|
(NA) 2001 Nov 2-4 |
43 |
44 |
13 |
|
(NA) 2001 Jun 8-10 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
(RV) 2002 May 28-29 |
45 |
46 |
9 |
|
(RV) 2002 Apr 29-May 1 |
48 |
44 |
8 |
|
(RV) 2002 Apr 5-7 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
|
(RV) 2002 Mar 22-24 |
46 |
46 |
8 |
|
(RV) 2002 Feb 8-10 |
43 |
47 |
10 |
|
(RV) 2002 Jan 25-27 |
44 |
46 |
10 |
|
(RV) 2002 Jan 11-14 |
43 |
46 |
11 |
|
(RV) 2001 Dec 14-16 |
43 |
48 |
9 |
|
(RV) 2001 Nov 2-4 |
45 |
45 |
10 |
|
(RV) 2001 Jun 8-10 |
49 |
45 |
6 |
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