President Bush has found himself under fire in the press lately
as the economy continues to struggle and information emerges about
possible corporate misconduct during his tenure on the board of
Harken Energy Corporation. But Bush's job approval ratings remain
remarkably high: for his sixth quarter as president, which began on
April 20, 2002, and ended on July 19, 2002, Bush averaged a 74.9%
job approval rating*. This rates as the 14th-best
quarter for a president since Harry S. Truman's presidency, when
Gallup began regularly measuring presidential job approval. Bush
previously recorded the second- and fifth-best quarters for
presidents. In addition, Bush has maintained an approval rating of
70% or higher for the past 10 consecutive months.
Bush's quarterly average had dropped about five percentage
points in each of the last two quarters (see graph). By comparison,
his father, George H. W. Bush, had a slightly faster decline from
his high quarterly average of 82.7% (measured in the first quarter
of 1991, during the Persian Gulf War), losing nine points in the
quarter immediately following, and five points the quarter after
that. The elder Bush's quarterly average continued to decline for
the next four quarters until falling to 35% in late summer and
early fall of 1992.
Beginning in late September 2001, when George W. Bush received
the highest approval rating recorded by Gallup at 90%, and ending
in early March 2002, all of Bush's approval ratings ranked among
the top 50 single measurements Gallup ever obtained. Despite the
recent decline in his approval ratings, Bush's most recent scores
still place among the top 10% Gallup has ever measured. The average
rating for all presidents is 56%, while Bush's most recent approval
rating was 73%.
For his entire term in office to date, Bush's average approval
rating is 70.9%. For the year beginning Jan. 20, 2002 (the start of
Bush's second full year in office), he has averaged 77.5%. Both
ratings are on pace for the highest overall averages for a
president (John F. Kennedy averaged 70.1% for his term) and the
highest yearly average for a president (Truman averaged a 77.3%
rating in 1945-1946). However, the downward momentum in his ratings
over the last two quarters makes both of these outcomes
unlikely.
Bush Gets Higher Marks for His Handling of Foreign
Policy
Bush's high ratings owe a great deal to the public's positive
views on his handling of foreign affairs. The latest measurement
from a July 5-8 poll shows that 71% of Americans approve of Bush's
handling of foreign affairs. Approval of his handling of the
economy is much lower at 58%, and is showing signs of decline,
while his foreign affairs' rating has held steady since March.
Bush's term-average ratings on both measures are high compared
to those of recent presidents (Gallup has only tracked approval of
foreign affairs and the economy regularly since the Ronald Reagan
presidency). Bush has averaged 60% approval for his handling of the
economy since he has been in office, topping the averages of Bill
Clinton (52%), George H.W. Bush (25%) and Reagan (46%). The current
president's average foreign affairs' approval rating of 67% is
slightly higher than his father's 65% average, and significantly
better than that of Clinton (48%), Reagan (43%) and Jimmy Carter
(46%).
Key Points
Bush is still on track to make history as one of the
highest-rated U.S. presidents of the last 50 years -- but the
possibility that his approval ratings will see a decline similar to
those of his father following the Gulf War appear increasingly
likely. Those ratings have already seen a modest yet steady decline
over the last two quarters, and the increasing focus on domestic
affairs and the country's ongoing economic troubles do not bode
well for the president's popularity.
*These results are based on telephone interviews with randomly
selected national samples of approximately 1,000 adults, aged 18
and older. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95%
confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and
other random effects is ±3%. In addition to sampling error,
question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys
can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
