Public Sentiment Worsens on Economy

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Public attitudes about the economy have worsened significantly over the past month, according to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Now almost six in 10 Americans (58%) rate the economy as poor, while just four in 10 (41%) rate it as good.

Rating of Current Economic Conditions

Ratings have been declining for the past year and a half, but this is the first time that more people have given poor rather than good ratings on this measure. In February 2001, 80% of Americans rated the economy as good, but two months later that number fell to 67%, and by the end of last summer it had fallen to 57%. Over the next year, the ratings fluctuated within a narrow limit, with a 54% "good" rating as late as last month.

These results reinforce another Gallup measure on the economy that shows a significant decline in public sentiment over the past summer, including the lowest rating of current economic conditions since April 1994.

Despite the low ratings of the economy as it is today, most Americans expect it to be better a year from now. The poll shows that 65% say the economy will be either very or somewhat good next year, while just 30% expect it to be poor.

Expected Rating of Economy a Year From Now

A comparison of both ratings shows that overall, 39% of Americans expect the economy to be better next year, 8% expect it to be worse, and 48% expect no change. The other 5% have no opinion.

Expectations for Economy Next Year

Bush's Rating on Economy Suffers

Given the relatively low ratings of the economy, it is not surprising to find that President George W. Bush's approval rating on his handling of the economy has also declined. Currently, just 49% approve, while 44% disapprove -- the worst rating Bush has received on this issue since taking office.

Opinion of Bush's Handling of the Economy

Bush's rating surged after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, but began its downward slide in January of this year.

In a related question, Americans now give the Democrats in Congress a more positive evaluation than Republicans in their ability to deal with the economy. Today, 47% say the Democrats would do a better job with the economy, while 36% say the Republicans. That's just a 1-point increase for the Democrats over last month, but a 5-point decline for the Republicans.

Who Can Better Handle the Economy?

Ratings of Economy Related to Ratings of Bush and Republicans in Congress

Not surprisingly, people's ratings of the economy are highly related to people's ratings of President Bush on his handling of the economy, and to the comparative evaluation of the abilities of Republicans and Democrats in Congress to handle the economy.

Overall, 35% of Americans give a highly positive rating of the economy (it is good now and they expect it to be good next year), 34% a mixed rating (either it is poor now or they expect it to be poor next year), and 26% a very negative rating (it is poor now and it will be poor next year as well).

Rating of Economy -- Now and Next Year

Among people who rate the economy as good now and also expect it to be good next year, 78% approve of Bush's handling of the economy. Among those who give the economy a mixed rating, just 40% approve of Bush on the economy. Those who say the economy is poor now and also expect it to be poor next year are the least likely to approve of Bush -- just 23% do so.

Bush Approval on Economy Compared by Rating of Economy

Rating of Economy

Similarly, people who give the economy very high marks are most likely to say that Republicans rather than Democrats can do a better job of dealing with the economy, while those who give the economy a mixed or worse rating are more likely to choose the Democrats.

Who Can Better Handle the Economy? Compared by Rating of Economy

Rating of Economy

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,018 national adults, aged 18+, conducted Oct. 21-22, 2002. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

How would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?

 

	Very good	Somewhat good	Somewhat poor	Very poor	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Oct 21-22	3	38	42	16	1
2002 Sep 20-22	5	49	35	11	*
2002 Jul 26-28	5	46	37	12	*
2002 Jun 28-30	5	53	33	9	*
2002 Apr 5-7	6	55	30	9	*
2002 Jan 11-14	7	50	32	10	1
2001 Dec 14-16	5	45	37	12	1
2001 Sep 21-22	7	50	34	8	1
2001 Apr 20-22	10	57	25	7	1
2001 Feb 9-11	16	64	16	3	1
2001 Jan 15-16	24	58	14	4	*
2000 Jun 6-7	39	46	9	5	1
2000 Mar 10-12	42	44	10	3	1
1999 Jun 25-27	34	50	10	6	*
1999 Jan 8-10	41	48	8	3	*
1998 Jul 7-8	29	50	15	5	1
1998 Jan 25-26	24	57	14	4	1
1998 Jan 24-25	24	57	13	5	1
1998 Jan 23-24	24	57	15	4	*
1997 Oct 27-29	24	55	15	4	2
1997 Aug 22-25	17	52	21	9	1
* Less than 0.5%

Now thinking about a year from now, do you expect economic conditions in this country will be -- very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?

 

	Very good	Somewhat good	Somewhat poor	Very poor	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Oct 21-22	7	58	21	9	5
2002 Sep 20-22	14	57	20	7	2
2002 Jun 28-30	13	58	21	6	2
2002 Apr 5-7	17	60	15	5	3
2002 Jan 11-14	15	63	16	5	1
2001 Dec 14-16	17	59	14	7	3
2001 Sep 21-22	21	56	15	5	3
2001 Apr 20-24	16	54	18	9	3
2001 Feb 9-11	18	53	21	6	2
2001 Jan 15-16	13	55	22	8	2
2000 Jun 6-7	24	56	10	5	5
2000 Mar 10-12	24	55	13	4	4
1999 Jun 25-27	21	55	15	7	2
1999 Jan 8-10	25	56	12	4	3
1998 Jul 7-8	19	54	14	7	6
1997 Oct 27-29	20	55	18	4	3

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GROUPS (COMBINED RESPONSES)

 

	Good now/ Good next year	Good now/ Poor next year	Poor now/ Good next year	Poor now/ Poor next year	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Oct 21-22	35	4	30	26	5
2002 Sep 20-22	47	6	23	21	3
2002 Jun 28-30	50	7	21	20	2
2002 Apr 5-7	54	5	23	15	3
2002 Jan 11-14	50	6	26	15	3
2001 Dec 14-16	43	6	32	16	3

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [ROTATED]?

A. The economy

 

	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
	%	%	%
2002 Oct 21-22	49	44	7
2002 Jul 26-28	52	43	5
2002 Jul 5-8	58	36	6
2002 Jun 28-30	63	33	4
2002 May 20-22	61	29	10
2002 Apr 5-7 ^	60	33	7
2002 Mar 22-24	65	29	6
2002 Mar 1-3	64	31	5
2002 Feb 4-6	66	30	4
2002 Jan 25-27	64	30	6
2001 Nov 2-4 ^	71	24	5
2001 Oct 5-6	72	23	5
2001 Jul 10-11	54	36	10
2001 May 18-20	51	41	8
2001 Apr 20-22 ^	55	38	7
2001 Mar 9-11	55	32	13
2001 Feb 1-4	53	27	20
^ Asked of half sample.

Do you think the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress would do a better job of dealing with each of the following issues and problems? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. Economic conditions

 

	Republicans	Democrats	NO DIFFERENCE (vol.)	No opinion
2002 Oct 21-22	36%	47	8	9
2002 Sep 20-22	41%	46	6	7
(vol.) Volunteered response