GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- According to the first CNN/USA
Today/Gallup poll conducted after the congressional elections,
68% of Americans approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his
job as president -- up from 63% just before the elections, but
about the same level it has been for the past 3 months.
| George W. Bush's Job Approval Rating |
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Following the midterm election results in 1982, President Ronald
Reagan's approval rating remained essentially unchanged (43%) from
his rating shortly before the elections (42%). In 1990, President
George H.W. Bush's approval ratings before and after the midterm
elections were identical at 58%. President Bill Clinton's approval
rating before the midterm elections in 1994 was 46%, and three
weeks later it was 43% -- a decline, but within the poll's margin
of error.
Thus, the 5-point increase in the job approval of the current
President Bush is unusual. Unlike the three previous examples, this
year the party of the president made gains in the House of
Representatives, and also regained majority control of the U.S.
Senate. Many political analysts have cited Bush's vigorous campaign
efforts on behalf of his party's candidates as a major factor in
the GOP victory, and this public accolade could partly account for
Bush's bump in approval ratings.
The current poll also shows that Bush is better positioned for
his re-election efforts 2 years hence than was Clinton after his
first midterm elections.
Other measures on which Bush was rated in the current poll
include:
The Economy
Overall, 55% of Americans approve of his handling of the
economy, up from 49% in October, but still much lower than it had
been in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
George W. Bush's Job of
Handling the Economy |
 |
Foreign Affairs
There is essentially no change in this rating from October,
which produced the lowest rating since 9/11. Still, by historical
standards, the rating is high.
George W. Bush's Job of
Handling Foreign Affairs |
 |
Personal Traits
Sixty-six percent of Americans say Bush shares their values, up
from 60% last July and the second highest it has ever been.
Bush Characteristics and Qualities:
Shares Your Values? |
 |
Sixty percent of Americans say the president "cares about the
needs of people like you." This is unchanged from last July, and
just slightly higher than the last reading before 9/11.
Bush Characteristics and Qualities:
Cares About the Needs of People Like You? |
 |
There is a slight increase in the number of Americans who say
President Bush "understands complex issues," now at 64%, compared
with 60% last July. Shortly after the 9/11 attacks, 69% of
Americans expressed that view.
Bush Characteristics and Qualities:
Understands Complex Issues? |
 |
Finally, just over half of all Americans (53%) say Bush has a
clear plan for solving this country's problems. This is slightly
higher than the 50% who say that about the Republican Party, but
much higher than the 30% who say that about the Democratic
Party.
Has a Clear Plan for
Solving This Country's Problems? |
 |
2004 Presidential Election
While it is clearly too early to predict the outcome of the 2004
presidential election, the post-election poll suggests that -- at
least at this time -- President Bush is better positioned for
re-election than was President Bill Clinton in 1994.
The current poll shows that if the presidential election were
held today, more than half of all Americans, 55%, say they would
vote for Bush, while 39% would vote for the Democratic candidate.
By contrast, shortly after the midterm elections in 1994, Clinton
trailed the unnamed Republican candidate by 54% to 40%. Those
results were little changed from a poll conducted in the spring of
that year.
Suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held today.
If George W. Bush runs for re-election, are you more likely to vote
for Bush, the Republican, or for the Democratic Party's candidate
for president?
(As of today, do you lean more to Bush, the Republican, or to a
Democratic candidate?)
|
Bush
|
Candidate of Opposing Party
|
DEPENDS (vol.)
|
NEITHER/
OTHER
(vol.)
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No
opinion
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George W. Bush
|
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2002 Nov 8-10
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55%
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39
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3
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1
|
2
|
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Bill Clinton
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1994 Dec 2-4 ^
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40%
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54
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--
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--
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7
|
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1994 Mar 28-30 ^
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43%
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50
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3
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2
|
2
|
|
|
|
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(vol.) Volunteered response
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^
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WORDING: Suppose the 1996 presidential election were being held
today. If Bill Clinton runs for re-election, are you more likely to
vote for Clinton, the Democrat, or for the Republican Party's
candidate for president? As of today, do you lean more to Clinton,
the Democrat, or to a Republican candidate?
|
Much can change in the next 2 years, so these results are useful
more as an insight into what the public is currently thinking than
what will happen 2 years hence. It should be remembered that
despite his poor showing on this question in 1994, Clinton went on
to win re-election in 1996 by a comfortable margin.
Survey Methods
The latest results are based on telephone interviews with 1,014
national adults, aged 18+, conducted Nov. 8-10, 2002. For results
based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95%
confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3
percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording
and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce
error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
