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Many Americans Wary of War With Iraq, Just as in 1991

Many Americans Wary of War With Iraq, Just as in 1991

But almost 8 out of 10 believe the United States would win such a war

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans' sentiments about going to war against Iraq are quite similar to the views of the public just before the start of the Persian Gulf War, in early January 1991. Today, as was true then, just about half of Americans say the situation in Iraq is worth going to war over. At the same time, almost 8 out of 10 Americans believe the United States would win such a war, again quite similar to feelings that prevailed in early 1991.

Americans are convinced that a war with Iraq would not be a short one; more than 4 out of 10 think it would last for a year or longer. Prior to the 1991 Persian Gulf War, the public was much more likely to believe such a war would be brief (which it was). At the same time, Americans today estimate a much lower total number of American deaths if a war does break out, while in 1991, the public was less certain in its estimates of possible deaths that would result from a war with Iraq.

Over half of Americans today are very worried that the situation in the Persian Gulf could lead to additional terrorist attacks against the United States.

Situation With Iraq Worth Going to War Over?

A Jan. 3-5 Gallup Poll re-asked several questions about a possible war with Iraq that had been asked of the American public in early January 1991, just prior to the outbreak of the military action against Iraq that became known as the Persian Gulf War.

One of the basic results shows that Americans are slightly more likely now than 12 years ago to consider the situation in Iraq "worth going to war over." This is a question Gallup asked on a regular basis in the late summer, fall, and early winter of 1990 and 1991, as the United States and its allies moved troops and equipment into the Persian Gulf in anticipation of an invasion of Iraq.

There was remarkably little variation in the responses to this question during that time period (between August 1990 and early January 1991), with the percentage saying "yes" varying only between 45% and 51%. The final reading on this question before the war got underway was 46%, measured in a Jan. 11-13, 1991 Gallup Poll.

The precise circumstances in regard to Iraq are different now than they were 12 years ago in many ways. But the basic facts remain quite similar: there was then and is now a build-up of U.S. troops and equipment in the Persian Gulf area in anticipation of possible military action against Iraq. And, asked today this same question about the "worth" of a war against Iraq, a quite similar 53% say yes.

The 1991 data clearly show a dramatic increase in positive attitudes about the justification for war once military action actually got underway, with 71% saying the situation was worth going to war over in a Jan. 30-Feb. 2, 1991 poll. We can anticipate a similar increase in support if and when military action against Iraq begins this year.

But it's also worth noting that the perception that the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over became less prevalent in the months after the Persian Gulf War ended. By the summer of 1991, the "worth going to war" number had dropped to 66%, and by January 1992, only 59% of Americans felt that the situation had been worth going to war.

All in all, do you think the current situation in Iraq is worth going to war over, or not?

Worth
going to war

Not worth
going to war

No
opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 3-5 ^

53

42

5

1998 Feb 20-22

57

36

7

1992 Jan 6-9 ‡

59

38

3

1991 Jul 11-14 §

66

28

6

1991 Jan 30-Feb 2 †

71

24

5

1991 Jan 11-13 †

46

44

10

1991 Jan 3-6 †

47

44

9

1990 Dec 13-16 †

49

44

7

1990 Dec 6-9 †

47

45

8

1990 Nov 29-Dec 2 †

51

41

8

1990 Nov 15-18 †

46

45

9

1990 Sep 27-30 †

49

41

10

1990 Aug 30-Sep 2 †

45

44

11

1990 Aug 23-26 †

49

41

10

^

Asked of a half sample.

WORDING: All in all, do you think the situation in the Persian Gulf region was worth going to war over, or not?

§

WORDING: All in all, do you think the situation in the Middle East involving Iraq and Kuwait was worth going to war over?

WORDING: All in all, is the current situation in the Mideast worth going to war over, or not?

Length of a War With Iraq and Projected Casualties

Americans today are significantly more likely to predict a long war with Iraq than they were prior to the 1991 hostilities.

Suppose for a moment that war does break out in the Persian Gulf region between the United States and its allies and Iraq. How long do you think the war would last?

2003 Jan 3-5

1991 Jan 3-6

%

%

Less than one month

7

18

One month or more but
less than three months

12

14

Three months or more but
less than six months

10

10

Six months or more but
less than one year

19

13

One year or more but
less than two years

17

8

Two years or more but
less than five years

20

6

More than five years

5

4

No opinion

10

27

In early January 1991, 55% of Americans thought that a war with Iraq would last less than 1 year. Now, that number is 48%. Significantly, 19% of Americans now say a war with Iraq will be over within 3 months, compared to 32% who were this optimistic in early 1991.

Despite the fact that Americans predict a longer war now than they predicted in 1991, they are much more likely now than then to estimate relatively low numbers of casualties that would result from such a conflict. Asked in 1991 how many of their countrymen would be killed in a war with Iraq, 44% of Americans said they didn't know or couldn't guess. The estimates of those who did venture a guess ranged across a fairly wide spectrum, including some 15% who felt that 50,000 or more Americans would die (which would have put such a war in the same category as the Vietnam War, in which about 58,000 Americans were killed).

How many Americans do you think would be killed before the war was over?

2003 Jan 3-5

1991 Jan 3-6

%

%

Less than 1,000

30

6

1,000 or more but less than 3,000

15

7

3,000 or more but less than 5,000

6

3

5,000 or more but less than 10,000

5

4

10,000 or more but less than 15,000

4

5

15,000 or more but less than 20,000

1

2

20,000 or more but less than 30,000

3

7

30,000 or more but less than 40,000

1

4

40,000 or more but less than 50,000

1

3

50,000 or more

7

15

No opinion

27

44

Perhaps because they remember that few Americans lost their lives in the 1991 war, Americans today are a) more willing to venture a guess as to the casualties that would result from a war with Iraq, and b) much more conservative in their estimates. Only 7% now say that 50,000 or more would die. Thirty percent say that fewer than 1,000 would die, with the remaining estimates more likely to be at the lower end of the spectrum (i.e., near 1,000 estimated deaths) than at the higher end.

One perception has remained constant across the past 12 years: The American public is quite optimistic that the United States would win a war with Iraq. Seventy-eight percent now say it is very likely that the United States and its allies would win an Iraqi war, just a little higher than the 70% who felt that way in early January 1991.

Ultimately, how likely is it that the United States and its allies would win that war against Iraq -- very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?

Very
likely

Somewhat likely

Not too
likely

Not at all likely

No
opinion

2003 Jan 3-5

78%

17

3

1

1

1991 Jan 3-6

70%

18

3

3

6

Consequences of the Situation in the Persian Gulf

Asked to rate three different potential consequences of the "current situation in the Persian Gulf," Americans are most worried about the potential that the situation will lead to further acts of terrorism against the United States. Fifty-three percent say they are "very worried" that such an eventuality might result from the situation in the Persian Gulf. A smaller group of 39% of Americans are very worried that the current situation could develop into a bigger war that could spread throughout the region and other parts of the world (this is roughly similar to the percentage who were very worried about this eventuality in January 1991). Thirty-four percent are very worried that the situation will lead to an economic recession within the United States.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,000 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Jan. 3-5, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

All in all, do you think the current situation in Iraq is worth going to war over, or not?

BASED ON -- 513 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

Worth
going to war

Not worth
going to war

No
opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jan 3-5 ^

53

42

5

1998 Feb 20-22

57

36

7

1991 Jan 30-Feb 2 †

71

24

5

1991 Jan 11-13 †

46

44

10

1991 Jan 3-6 †

47

44

9

1990 Dec 13-16 †

49

44

7

1990 Dec 6-9 †

47

45

8

1990 Nov 29-Dec 2 †

51

41

8

1990 Nov 15-18 †

46

45

9

1990 Sep 27-30 †

49

41

10

1990 Aug 30-Sep 2 †

45

44

11

1990 Aug 23-26 †

49

41

10

^

Asked of a half sample.

WORDING: All in all, do you think the situation in the Middle East involving Iraq and Kuwait was worth going to war over, or not?

WORDING: All in all, is the current situation in the Mideast worth going to war over, or not?

All in all, do you think the situation in the Middle East involving Iraq and Kuwait was worth going to war over, or not?

Worth
going to war

Not worth
going to war

No
opinion

%

%

%

1992 Jan 6-9 ^

59

38

3

1991 Jul 11-14

66

28

6

1991 May 23-26

72

23

5

1991 Apr 25-28

70

24

6

1991 Apr 4-6

71

22

7

1991 Feb 28-Mar 3

80

15

5

^

WORDING: All in all, do you think the situation in the Persian Gulf region was worth going to war over, or not?

Which of these statements do you think best describes Iraq's military and weapons capabilities -- [ROTATED: it is a crisis for the United States, it is a major problem but is not a crisis, it is a minor problem, (or) it is not a problem for the United States at all]?



Crisis


Major problem


Minor problem

Not a problem
at all


No
opinion

2003 Jan 3-5

25%

56

14

3

2

Suppose for a moment that war does break out in the Persian Gulf region between the United States and its allies and Iraq. How long do you think the war would last? [OPEN-ENDED AND CODE]

2003 Jan 3-5

1991 Jan 3-6

Less than one month

7%

18%

One month or more but less
than three months

12

14

Three months or more but
less than six months

10

10

Six months or more but
less than one year

19

13

One year or more but
less than two years

17

8

Two years or more but
less than five years

20

6

More than five years

5

4

No opinion

10

27

Ultimately, how likely is it that the United States and its allies would win that war against Iraq -- very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?

Very
likely

Somewhat likely

Not too
likely

Not at all likely

No
opinion

2003 Jan 3-5

78%

17

3

1

1

1991 Jan 3-6

70%

18

3

3

6

How many Americans do you think would be killed before the war was over? [OPEN-ENDED AND CODE]

2003 Jan 3-5

1991 Jan 3-6

Less than 1,000

30%

6%

1,000 or more but less than 3,000

15

7

3,000 or more but less than 5,000

6

3

5,000 or more but less than 10,000

5

4

10,000 or more but less than 15,000

4

5

15,000 or more but less than 20,000

1

2

20,000 or more but less than 30,000

3

7

30,000 or more but less than 40,000

1

4

40,000 or more but less than 50,000

1

3

50,000 or more

7

15

No opinion

27

44

How worried are you that the current situation in the Persian Gulf will – [ITEM A READ, THEN ITEMS B-C ROTATED]? Would you say you are very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried about that?

A. Develop into a larger war that could spread throughout the region and other parts of the world

Very
worried

Somewhat worried

Not too
worried

Not at all worried

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

2003 Jan 3-5

39

37

16

8

*

1991 Jan 19-22

32

40

19

8

1

1991 Jan 17-20

31

36

22

10

1

1991 Jan 11-13

38

34

17

9

2

* Less than 0.5%

  1. Lead to further acts of terrorism in the United States

Very
worried

Somewhat worried

Not too
worried

Not at all worried

No
opinion

2003 Jan 3-5

53%

34

9

3

1

C. Lead to an economic recession in the United States

Very
worried

Somewhat worried

Not too
worried

Not at all worried

No
opinion

2003 Jan 3-5

34%

35

21

9

1


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/7558/Many-Americans-Wary-War-Iraq-Just-1991.aspx
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