Speech Watchers React Positively to Bush's Call to Arms

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- An instant reaction poll of speech watchers last night found President George W. Bush receiving high marks for his State of the Union address, although considerably lower than last year. The speech appears to have persuaded many viewers about the need for an invasion of Iraq, but viewers are dubious about the impact of Bush's economic program. When asked which issue was more important to them in the president's speech, respondents chose terrorism and Iraq over the economy by a 56% to 31% margin.

The major findings of the CNN/USA Today/Gallup instant reaction poll are as follows:

• Eighty-four percent of speech watchers say their overall reaction to the speech is positive, with 50% saying "very" positive. Last year, 94% said positive, with 74% very positive.

• Forty-four percent say that as a result of the speech, they have more confidence that the United States will be able to deal with the problems it has to face, while 7% say they have less confidence, and 47% say the same amount of confidence.

• Seventy-one percent say the policies being proposed by Bush would move the country in the right direction, while 20% say the wrong direction. Last year the comparable numbers were 91% vs. 7% respectively. Still, the results last night represent an improvement over this same group's responses in a poll conducted in the days just prior to the speech, when 52% said the right direction and 40% said the wrong direction.

• By a margin of 67% to 30%, speech watchers say Bush has made a convincing case about the need for the United States to take military action against Iraq. Prior to the speech, this same group of Americans was about evenly divided, with just 47% saying Bush had made a convincing case for military action and 52% saying he had not.

• Speech watchers are dubious about the economic program Bush presented in his speech: 49% say the program is likely to get the country out of its current economic problems, while 43% say it will not. Last year, speech watchers were far more optimistic about Bush's economic program, with 73% expecting his program to work and just 22% saying it would not. When the elder President Bush delivered his State of the Union address in 1992, in the midst of a recession, the speech watchers then reacted in a similar way to last night's speech watchers: 47% thought the elder Bush's economic program would work, while 47% did not.

• Most speech watchers, 61%, say their confidence in Bush's economic leadership has not changed as a result of the speech. Another 28% say they have more confidence and 10% say less confidence. In 1992, speech watchers reacted quite similarly: 32% said more confidence and 9% said less confidence, with 58% saying no change.

• Speech watchers are much more positive about Bush's arguments for his tax cuts and the changes he has proposed for Medicare. By 67% to 23%, viewers say Bush made a convincing case for the changes in Medicare, and by 58% to 36%, they say he made a convincing case for the tax cuts.

• Although a recent Gallup Poll found Americans saying that the economy is more important than Iraq to the country as a whole, by 52% to 37%, speech watchers were more interested in what Bush had to say about Iraq and terrorism than about the economy -- by a 56% to 31% margin.

Republicans Outnumbered Democrats Among Speech Watchers

Typically, presidential speech watchers disproportionately identify with the party of the president. Last night, the imbalance in favor of the president's party was about average, with 40% of respondents identifying as Republicans, 31% as independents, and 28% as Democrats. That 12-percentage-point Republican advantage over Democrats is much smaller than last year's margin, when 50% of speech watchers were Republicans and 25% each were independents and Democrats.

Among those who watched President Clinton's speeches, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by margins that ranged from 7 to 15 percentage points. When the senior Bush gave his last State of the Union address, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in the post-speech poll by just 6 percentage points, 37% to 31%. An instant reaction poll to George W. Bush's first major speech to the nation in February 2001 found a large Republican skew in the audience similar to that for last year's State of the Union address.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with -- 440 -- speech watchers, aged 18+, conducted Jan. 28, 2003. For results based on the total sample of speech watchers, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

Survey respondents were first interviewed as part of random national adult samples by Gallup between Jan. 20-27, 2003, at which time they indicated they planned to watch the President's 2003 State of the Union address and were willing to be re-interviewed by Gallup after the speech. Respondents' pre- and post-speech answers are shown for those questions that were asked on both surveys.

The sample consists of 40% of respondents who identify themselves as Republicans, 28% who identify themselves as Democrats, and 31% who identify themselves as independents.

 

Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

What was your overall reaction to Bush's speech tonight – [ROTATED: very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, (or) very negative]?

 

	Very posi- tive	Somewhat positive	Somewhat negative	Very negative	BOTH/ MIXED (vol.)	No opinion
George W. Bush
2003 Jan 28	50	34	11	3	2	*
2002 Jan 29	74	20	3	2	1	0
2001 Feb 27	66	26	6	1	*	1
Bill Clinton
1999 Jan 19	56	27	9	7	1	*
1998 Jan 27	52	32	11	5	*	*
(vol.) Volunteered response
* Less than 0.5%

As a result of tonight's speech, do you have -- [ROTATED: more confidence that the U.S. will be able to deal with the problems it has to face, about the same amount of confidence, or less confidence that the U.S. will be able to deal with the problems it has to face]?

 

	More confidence	Less confidence	About the same	No opinion
George W. Bush
2003 Jan 28	44%	7	47	2

Do you think the policies being proposed by George W. Bush will move the country in the right direction or the wrong direction?

 

	Right direction	Wrong direction	No opinion
	%	%	%
George W. Bush
2003 Jan 28 (Post-speech)	71	20	9
2003 Jan 23-27 (Pre-speech)	52	40	8
2002 Jan 29 (Post-speech)	91	7	2
2002 Jan 25-27 (Pre-speech)	77	16	7
2001 Feb 27 (Post-speech)	84	12	4
2001 Feb 25-26 (Pre-speech)	73	12	15
Bill Clinton
1995 Jan 24 (Post-speech)	83	15	2
1995 Jan 23 (Pre-speech)	51	35	14
1994 Jan 25 (Post-speech)	84	11	5
1994 Jan 22-24 (Pre-speech)	67	27	6
2001 WORDING: Thinking about the policies of President Bush and his administration, in your view, is George W. Bush leading the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
1994-1995 WORDING: Thinking about the policies of President Clinton and his administration, in your view, is Bill Clinton leading the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?

Do you think George W. Bush has – or has not—made a convincing case about the need for the U.S. to take military action against Iraq?

 

	Yes, has	No, has not	No opinion
George W. Bush
2003 Jan 28 (Post-speech)	67%	30	3
2003 Jan 23-27 (Pre-speech)	47%	52	1

Next,

Do you think the economic program Bush presented tonight is likely to get the country out of its current economic problems, or not?

 

	Likely	Not likely	WILL MAKE WORSE (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
George W. Bush
2003 Jan 28	49	43	1	7
2002 Jan 29 ^	73	22	*	5
George H.W. Bush
1992 Jan 28 ^	47	47	*	6
^ WORDING: Do you think the economic program Bush presented tonight is likely to get the country out of the recession, or not?
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) Volunteered response

As a result of tonight's speech, do you have more confidence in George W. Bush's economic leadership, less confidence, or has your confidence in his economic leadership not changed much?

 

	More confidence	Less confidence	Not changed much	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
George W. Bush
2003 Jan 28	28	10	61	1
George H.W. Bush
1992 Jan 28	32	9	58	1

 

Do you think George W. Bush has -- or has not -- made a convincing case about the need for -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. The changes to Medicare that he proposed

 

	Yes, has	No, has not	No opinion
George W. Bush
2003 Jan 28	67%	23	10

B. The tax cuts that he proposed

 

	Yes, has	No, has not	No opinion
George W. Bush
2003 Jan 28	58%	36	6

Finally,

Which of the following was more important to you in tonight's speech -- [ROTATED: what Bush said about the economy, (or) what Bush said about Iraq and terrorism]?

 

 

	The economy	Terrorism/ Iraq	BOTH (vol.)	NEITHER (vol.)	No opinion
George W. Bush
2003 Jan 28	31%	56	13	--	*
2002 Jan 29 ^	29%	52	18	1	*
^ WORDING: Which of the following was more important to you in tonight's speech -- [ROTATED: what Bush said about the economy, (or) what Bush said about terrorism]?
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) Volunteered response