GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's annual poll on world affairs show Americans evaluated Israel more positively this year than they did last year. On some measures, Israel's ratings are the most positive they have been since the Persian Gulf War in 1991. Overall favorable ratings of Israel are up from last year, although similar to 2001 levels. However, the percentage that rates Israel "very favorably" is the highest it has been since 1991. Additionally, the level of expressed sympathy for the Israelis, as opposed to the Palestinians, is also the highest since 1991. Conservatives and Republicans, typically among the most supportive of Israel, show even stronger support now than in 2002.
The poll, conducted Feb. 3-6, shows Israel's favorable rating is at 64%, up from 58% last year, but about where it had been in 2001. The highest rating to date, 79%, came in 1991 during the Persian Gulf War.
Even though the total favorable rating is similar to recent years, the data show that 22% of Americans rate Israel a "very favorably," 6 points higher than last year, and the highest since January 1991 poll, when 28% rated Israel very favorably.
| Opinion of Israel |
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A majority of Americans, 58%, say their sympathies lie more with the Israelis than the Palestinian Arabs, while 13% say they have more sympathy toward the Palestinians. Since Gallup first began asking this question in 1988, Americans have always been much more sympathetic toward the Israelis. The current level of sympathy is significantly higher than it was last summer and fall, and is 3 points higher than the 55% registered in the fall of 2001 and February 2002, making it the highest it has been since February 1991. At that time, 64% of Americans said they were more sympathetic toward the Israelis than the Palestinians.
| Middle East Sympathies Trend: Yearly Averages |
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Last year, as hostility increased between Israelis and Palestinians, Gallup asked the sympathies measure several times. From April to September 2002, 48% of Americans, on average, said they were sympathetic toward Israel, 10 points lower than the current figure. This represented a slight decline from measures found just after the 9/11 attacks and those found in February 2002, when 55% of Americans said they were sympathetic toward Israel.
| Middle East Sympathies Trend: 2000-2003 |
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The increased sympathy for, and positive ratings of, Israel coincide with the increased focus on Saddam Hussein and the possibility of war with Iraq. As noted above, sympathies for Israel increased substantially during the Persian Gulf War of 1991 (no doubt in part because Israel was subject to missile attacks from Iraq as the conflict continued). Sympathies also increased immediately after the terrorist attacks of September 2001. These historical patterns may suggest that a focus on nations or groups that are enemies of both the United States and Israel may have the side effect of increasing the American public's sympathy for Israel, the United States' chief ally in the Middle East.
Republicans, Conservatives Growing More Positive Toward Israel
Typically, Republicans and conservatives have been much more positive in their evaluations of Israel than are Democrats and liberals, and that continues to be the case. In fact, Republicans and conservatives have shown increasingly more positive views of Israel this year than last, and these groups show more positive change than just about every other subgroup.
In 2002, 68% of Republicans gave Israel a favorable rating. That percentage has increased to 80% this year, and now 31% of Republicans rate Israel "very favorably." Democrats show only minimally more positive views now (59%) than a year ago (56%). Similarly, independents show slightly more positive views, going from a 51% average favorable rating in 2002 to a 55% favorable rating now.
A comparison of the results by ideology shows a 10-point gain in favorable ratings of Israel among conservatives, from 63% in 2002 to 73% currently. Moderates also show an increase of 10 points, from 53% to 63%. Liberals' opinions have remained steady, with 52% rating Israel favorably now compared to 51% a year ago.
On the sympathies question, the story is slightly different, as most subgroups show increasing sympathy toward the Israelis since September 2002. Even Democrats and liberals show increased support for Israel, although less than other subgroups. Specifically, sympathy for Israel among Democrats is currently 48%, and was 42% in September. It is 45% among liberals and was 39% in September. Among Republicans, support has increased from 58% to 76%, and among conservatives, from 54% to 68%.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,001 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Feb. 3-6, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Next, I'd like your overall opinion of some foreign countries. First, is your overall opinion of [RANDOM ORDER]very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? How about -- [INSERT NEXT ITEM]?
Israel
|
Very |
Mostly favorable |
Mostly unfavorable |
Very unfavorable |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2003 Feb 3-6 |
22 |
42 |
23 |
6 |
7 |
|
2002 Feb 4-6 |
16 |
42 |
25 |
10 |
7 |
|
2001 Feb 1-4 ^ |
18 |
45 |
20 |
12 |
5 |
|
2000 Mar 17-19 |
16 |
46 |
20 |
8 |
10 |
|
2000 Jan 25-26 |
11 |
43 |
21 |
7 |
18 |
|
1999 May 7-9 |
15 |
53 |
19 |
6 |
7 |
|
1999 Feb 8-9 |
18 |
48 |
16 |
7 |
11 |
|
1996 Mar 8-10 |
17 |
45 |
18 |
11 |
9 |
|
1992 Feb 6-9 |
12 |
36 |
27 |
16 |
9 |
|
1991 Nov 21-14 |
11 |
36 |
26 |
11 |
16 |
|
1991 Sep 26-29 |
11 |
45 |
25 |
9 |
10 |
|
1991 Aug 8-11 |
15 |
47 |
19 |
6 |
12 |
|
1991 Mar 14-17 |
20 |
49 |
16 |
7 |
8 |
|
1991 Jan 30-Feb 2 |
28 |
51 |
10 |
3 |
8 |
|
1989 Aug 10-13 |
11 |
34 |
29 |
16 |
10 |
|
1989 Feb 28-Mar 2 |
8 |
41 |
25 |
13 |
13 |
In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinian Arabs?
|
|
Palestinian Arabs |
|
NEITHER |
No |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
|
2003 Feb 3-6 |
58 |
13 |
6 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
2002 Sep 2-4 |
47 |
14 |
6 |
19 |
14 |
|
|
2002 Jun 21-23 |
49 |
14 |
8 |
19 |
10 |
|
|
2002 May 20-22 |
49 |
15 |
7 |
19 |
10 |
|
|
2002 Apr 22-24 |
47 |
13 |
9 |
18 |
13 |
|
|
2002 Apr 5-7 |
50 |
15 |
9 |
17 |
9 |
|
|
2002 Mar 8-9 |
43 |
14 |
6 |
20 |
17 |
|
|
2002 Feb 4-6 |
55 |
14 |
6 |
14 |
11 |
|
|
2001 Dec 14-16 |
51 |
14 |
5 |
17 |
13 |
|
|
2001 Sep 14-15 |
55 |
7 |
4 |
20 |
14 |
|
|
2001 Aug 10-12 |
41 |
13 |
7 |
18 |
21 |
|
|
2001 Feb 1-4 |
51 |
16 |
7 |
14 |
12 |
|
|
2000 Oct 13-14 ^ |
41 |
11 |
9 |
18 |
21 |
|
|
2000 Jul 6-9 |
41 |
14 |
5 |
18 |
22 |
|
|
2000 Jan 25-26 |
43 |
13 |
5 |
21 |
18 |
|
|
1999 Jul 22-25 |
43 |
12 |
11 |
19 |
15 |
|
|
1998 Dec 4-6 |
46 |
13 |
5 |
22 |
14 |
|
|
1997 Aug 12-13 |
38 |
8 |
5 |
19 |
30 |
|
|
1996 Nov 21-24 |
38 |
15 |
6 |
14 |
27 |
|
|
1993 Sep 10-12 |
42 |
15 |
6 |
17 |
20 |
|
|
1991 Feb |
64 |
7 |
19 |
-- |
10 |
|
|
1989 Aug |
50 |
14 |
15 |
-- |
21 |
|
|
1988 May 13-15 |
37 |
15 |
22 |
-- |
27 |
|
|
^ |
Based on interviews with 821 national adults; +/- 4 pct. pts. |
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|
MAY 2002-SEPTEMBER 2002 WORDING: In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians? |
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