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Workers Sense Job Market Weakening

Yet no sign consumers are hurting financially

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Foreshadowing what one analyst described as a "shockingly weak" employment report last week, a Gallup Poll conducted just prior to that announcement found Americans' already gloomy outlook on job availability souring even further. In the March 3-5 survey, only 16% of U.S. workers (those currently employed and those looking for work) said that now is a good time to find a quality job. This was down from 20% in early February. The dominant view, held by 82% of workers in the latest survey, is that now is not a good time to find a quality job.

The new poll also records further erosion of public confidence in the direction of the economy. Only 23% of the public today -- down from 26% last month, and well below the 34% in early January -- believes the economy is getting better. This is the lowest level Gallup has recorded on this indicator since immediately before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

The good news for those hoping that troubling payroll statistics don't signal an end to the relatively robust consumer spending that has kept the economy afloat these past 2 years: Gallup finds no change in Americans' assessment of their personal finances or willingness to spend.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued employment data last Friday showing that the economy lost 308,000 jobs in February -- with factors including the looming war with Iraq, energy prices, and the cold weather conspiring to produce the worst 1-month employment decline since November 2001.

Rating the Job Market

Americans' recent outlook on job availability is markedly negative compared with the quite positive view they had in stronger economic times -- particularly in 2000, when nearly four in five workers felt that prospects for finding a quality job were good. But since August 2001, no more than 38% of the workforce has been optimistic about the availability of jobs. As the graph below shows, over just the past year, this sentiment has been in gradual decline.

Perceptions of Current Climate
for Finding a Quality Job

The UBS/Gallup Employee Outlook Index, a monthly poll tracking employee attitudes at privately held companies, echoes this finding. The February results (based on interviews conducted between Feb. 3 and Feb. 19) showed worker confidence dropping from an index value of 59.9 points in January to 52.1 points in February. Components of the index show that the bulk of the decline occurred in employees' evaluation of present conditions at their companies (down 8.2 points), as well in their 6-month outlook for their companies (down 10.3 points). Workers' confidence in their own job security fell by a smaller amount (down 5.1 points).

One question in the UBS/Gallup index tracks worker confidence in the job market ("How would you describe the current job market for people like you?"). Despite the drop in general perceptions that the job market is weakening (i.e., the 4-point drop in the percentage saying now is a good time to find a quality job), workers' confidence in their own prospects for employment have remained constant for the past 3 months: each month since December, 43% have rated their prospects as excellent or good. However, this figure is slightly below the 50% registered last spring.

There are a number of reasons why workers may be more confident in their own job situations than in the job market nationally. Polling consistently shows that Americans are more negative when asked to rate national conditions than when they rate conditions in their own personal situations (including such things as healthcare, education and schools, and congressional representation). There may also be a natural tendency for people to want to perceive that their own job is not in jeopardy, whether it is or not. Finally, even with a 5.8% unemployment rate, the fact is that well over 9 out of 10 Americans who want jobs have them, and the vast majority of those retain their jobs even in an economic downturn like this one.

Economic Woes

In addition to public confidence in the job market, the new Gallup Poll of national adults taps basic public confidence in the economy. It finds Americans' outlook for the economy also dropping in early March, building on a fairly steep decline in January and February. As noted, the percentage of Americans believing the economy is getting better stands at 23% today, down from 26% in mid-February, and sharply lower than the 34% recorded in mid-January. At the same time, Americans' assessment of current economic conditions has remained constant. Roughly 22% have told Gallup in each survey since the start of the year that economic conditions are good or excellent.

Gallup Economic Indicators

In strong economic times, 50% or more of the public can be expected to rate economic conditions as good or excellent, and to perceive that the economy is getting better. In the boom period between 1998 and 2000, these indicators topped out at 74% "good/excellent" and 69% "getting better."

Impact on Consumer Spending Not Clear

Taken together, Gallup's findings of decreased confidence in the job market and declining optimism about the direction of the economy suggest that the closely watched Conference Board and Michigan consumer confidence surveys to be released later this month may also record further erosion in consumer confidence.

However, fortunately for the economy, consumer spending has not followed the same downward path that consumer confidence has followed over the past few years. It is this relatively robust spending in spite of mounting economic concerns that has kept the economy from falling into recession.

Against this backdrop, it is important to note that Americans' evaluations of their own finances have not changed over the past month. Fifty percent of Americans (similar to 47% in February) describe their financial situations as excellent or good. Forty-three percent (similar to 44% last month) say their finances are improving. And 47%, compared with 45% in February, say they are in a good position to make purchases.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, 18 years and older, conducted March 3-5, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

How would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

 


Excellent

 

Good


Only fair

 

Poor

No opinion

2003

%

%

%

%

%

2003 Mar 3-5

1

21

46

32

*

2003 Feb 17-19

1

17

48

34

*

2003 Feb 3-6

2

20

53

25

*

2003 Jan 20-22

1

19

49

31

*

2003 Jan 13-16

2

20

50

28

*

2002

2002 Dec 19-22

1

23

48

28

*

2002 Dec 5-8

2

23

51

24

*

2002 Nov 22-24

2

30

45

23

*

2002 Oct 31-Nov 3

2

26

45

26

1

2002 Oct 3-6

2

24

46

27

1

2002 Sep 23-26

2

25

47

25

1

2002 Sep 5-8

2

22

53

23

*

2002 Aug 19-21

1

23

47

28

1

2002 Aug 5-8

1

27

52

19

1

2002 Jul 29-31

2

27

48

22

1

2002 Jul 22-24

2

25

48

24

1

2002 Jul 9-11

2

26

51

20

1

2002 Jun 17-19

2

35

43

19

1

2002 Jun 3-6

3

33

49

14

1

2002 May 20-22

3

38

46

12

1

2002 May 6-9

2

33

51

14

*

2002 Apr 22-24

2

37

46

14

1

2002 Apr 8-11

2

36

51

11

*

2002 Mar 4-7

3

31

51

14

1

2002 Feb 4-6

2

26

55

16

1

2002 Jan 7-9

2

27

54

16

1

2001

2001 Dec 6-9

2

29

53

16

*

2001 Nov 8-11

2

29

50

19

*

2001 Oct 11-14

2

36

48

13

1

2001 Sep 14-15

3

43

44

9

1

2001 Sep 7-10

2

30

49

19

*

2001 Aug 16-19

2

34

49

14

1

2001 Jul 19-22

3

38

47

11

1

2001 Jun 11-17

3

39

45

12

1

2001 May 10-14

3

37

45

15

*

2001 Apr 6-8

4

41

41

14

*

2001 Mar 5-7

3

43

43

10

1

2001 Feb 1-4

7

44

36

13

*

2001 Jan 10-14

11

56

27

6

*

2000

2000 Dec 2-4

12

51

28

8

1

2000 Nov 13-15

19

53

21

7

*

2000 Oct 6-9

14

57

24

4

1

2000 Aug 18-19

25

49

21

4

1

2000 Jul 25-26

26

48

21

4

1

2000 May 18-21

17

49

24

9

1

2000 Apr 3-9

14

46

30

9

1

2000 Jan 7-10

19

52

23

5

1


Excellent

 

Good


Only fair

 

Poor

No opinion

1999

%

%

%

%

%

1999 Oct 21-24

16

49

27

8

*

1999 Sep 10-14

20

47

24

8

1

1999 Aug 24-26

14

50

28

7

1

1999 Jun 4-5

18

56

21

5

*

1999 Jan 15-17

14

55

27

4

*

1998

1998 Dec 4-6

13

52

27

8

*

1998 Oct 29-Nov 1

13

53

27

6

1

1998 Sep 1

11

54

25

9

1

1998 Mar 20-22

20

46

27

7

*

1997

1997 Dec 18-21

7

41

38

12

2

1997 Nov 6-9

10

48

33

9

*

1997 Aug 22-25^

8

41

38

13

*

1997 May 6-7

7

39

38

15

1

1997 Jan 31-Feb 2

4

38

43

15

*

1996

1996 Oct 26-29

5

42

39

13

1

1996 Aug 30-Sep 1 †

3

34

46

16

1

1996 Jul 18-21

5

38

43

14

*

1996 May 9-12

3

27

50

19

1

1996 Apr 9-10

1

26

52

20

1

1996 Mar 15-17

2

31

48

18

1

1996 Jan 5-7

1

28

47

23

1

1995

1995 Nov 6-8

2

28

47

22

1

1995 May 11-14

2

27

50

20

1

1994

1994 Dec 16-18

2

25

52

21

*

1994 Nov 2-6

2

28

49

20

1

1994 Oct 22-25

1

25

52

21

1

1994 Jul 15-17

1

26

52

21

*

1994 Apr 22-24

1

23

49

26

1

1994 Jan 15-17

*

22

54

24

*

1993

1993 Dec 4-6

1

20

57

21

1

1993 Nov 2-4

1

16

50

33

*

1993 Aug 8-10

*

10

49

40

1

1993 Jun 29-30

1

14

52

32

1

1993 Feb 12-14

*

14

46

39

1

1992

1992 Dec 18-20

2

16

34

47

1

1992 Dec 4-6

1

14

41

43

1

1992 Oct 23-25

*

11

45

43

1

1992 Sep 11-15

1

10

37

51

1

1992 Aug 31-Sep 2 †

1

9

37

53

*

1992 Jun 12-14 †

1

11

47

41

*

1992 Apr 9-12 †

1

11

40

48

*

1992 Jan 3-6

*

12

46

41

1

* Less than 0.5%

^ Asked of half sample.

† Asked of Registered Voters.

Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?

 

Getting better

Getting worse

SAME (vol.)

No opinion

%

%

%

%

2003

(NA) 2003 Mar 3-5

23

67

7

3

(NA) 2003 Feb 17-19

26

63

9

2

(NA) 2003 Feb 3-6

27

60

11

2

(NA) 2003 Jan 20-22

29

57

12

2

(NA) 2003 Jan 13-16

34

54

10

2

2002

(NA) 2002 Dec 19-22

35

50

12

3

(NA) 2002 Dec 5-8

35

54

8

3

(NA) 2002 Nov 22-24

38

53

8

1

(NA) 2002 Oct 31-Nov 3

37

51

8

4

(NA) 2002 Oct 3-6

30

59

8

3

(NA) 2002 Sep 23-26

33

52

10

5

(NA) 2002 Sep 5-8

35

54

9

2

(NA) 2002 Aug 19-21

38

48

10

4

(NA) 2002 Aug 5-8

32

55

9

4

(NA) 2002 Jul 29-31

42

47

8

3

(NA) 2002 Jul 22-24

27

59

10

4

(NA) 2002 Jul 9-11

31

57

10

2

(NA) 2002 Jun 17-19

47

40

10

3

(NA) 2002 Jun 3-6

48

38

11

3

(NA) 2002 May 20-22

49

34

14

3

(NA) 2002 May 6-9

52

39

7

2

(NA) 2002 Apr 22-24

53

35

10

2

(NA) 2002 Apr 8-11

53

37

7

3

(NA) 2002 Mar 4-7

54

37

7

2

(NA) 2002 Feb 4-6

41

47

10

2

(NA) 2002 Jan 7-9

49

41

8

2

2001

(NA) 2001 Dec 6-9

44

48

6

2

(NA) 2001 Nov 8-11

30

59

7

4

(NA) 2001 Oct 11-14

33

55

10

2

(NA) 2001 Sep 14-15

28

60

8

4

(NA) 2001 Sep 7-10

19

70

9

2

(NA) 2001 Aug 16-19

27

59

11

3

(NA) 2001 Jul 19-22

35

53

9

3

(NA) 2001 Jun 11-17

29

60

8

3

(NA) 2001 May 10-14

25

63

9

3

(NA) 2001 Apr 6-8

24

63

9

4

(NA) 2001 Mar 5-7

28

61

7

4

(NA) 2001 Feb 1-4

23

66

8

3

(NA) 2001 Jan 10-14

32

56

8

4

Getting better

Getting worse

SAME (vol.)

No opinion

2000

%

%

%

%

(NA) 2000 Dec 2-4

39

48

8

5

(NA) 2000 Nov 13-15

50

38

9

3

(NA) 2000 Oct 6-9

54

34

10

2

(NA) 2000 Aug 18-19

60

26

10

4

(NA) 2000 Jul 25-26

58

29

9

4

(NA) 2000 May 18-21

52

37

9

2

(NA) 2000 Jan 7-10

69

23

6

2

1999

(NA) 1999 Oct 21-24

52

34

11

3

(NA) 1999 Sep 10-14

59

29

9

3

(NA) 1999 Aug 24-26

54

31

12

3

(NA) 1999 Jun 4-5

60

27

9

4

(NA) 1999 Jan 15-17

63

28

6

3

1998

(NA) 1998 Dec 4-6

52

38

8

2

(NA) 1998 Oct 29-Nov 1

51

38

8

3

(NA) 1998 Sep 1

45

41

11

3

1997

(NA) 1997 Dec 18-21

49

39

8

4

(NA) 1997 Nov 6-9

51

37

9

3

(NA) 1997 May 6-7

50

40

7

3

(NA) 1997 Jan 31-Feb 2

46

39

12

3

1996

(NA) 1996 Oct 26-29

50

38

7

5

(RV) 1996 Aug 30-Sep 1

52

37

8

3

(NA) 1996 Jul 18-21

43

46

9

2

(NA) 1996 May 9-12

39

49

9

3

1992

(RV) 1992 Aug 31-Sep 2

29

59

10

2

(RV) 1992 Aug 10-12

24

65

10

1

(RV) 1992 Jun 12-14

28

61

9

2

(RV) 1992 Apr 9-12

40

45

13

2

(RV) 1992 Mar 20-22

37

51

11

1

(RV) 1992 Jan 31-Feb 1

22

70

7

1

(NA) 1992 Jan 3-6

22

71

6

1

1991

(NA) 1991 Dec 5-8

19

69

9

3

(NA) 1991 Sep 5-8

27

60

10

3

(NA) 1991 Jul 11-14

34

51

9

6

(vol.) Volunteered response

(RV) Registered Voters

(NA) National Adults

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GROUPS (COMBINED RESPONSES)

 


Positive


Mixed


Negative

Undesig-
nated

%

%

%

%

2003

2003 Mar 3-5

12

20

64

4

2003 Feb 17-19

11

24

63

2

2003 Feb 3-6

12

27

59

2

2003 Jan 20-22

13

26

59

2

2003 Jan 13-16

14

29

54

3

2002

2002 Dec 19-22

17

26

54

3

2002 Dec 5-8

17

27

53

3

2002 Nov 22-24

22

29

48

1

2002 Oct 31-Nov 3

20

27

49

4

2002 Oct 3-6

16

25

55

4

2002 Sep 23-26

20

21

53

6

2002 Sep 5-8

16

29

53

2

2002 Aug 19-21

19

26

51

4

2002 Aug 5-8

16

30

50

4

2002 Jul 29-31

22

30

45

3

2002 Jul 22-24

16

24

55

5

2002 Jul 9-11

16

29

52

3

2002 Jun 17-19

30

27

40

3

2002 Jun 3-6

29

29

39

3

2002 May 20-22

33

28

36

3

2002 May 6-9

28

32

37

3

2002 Apr 22-24

32

31

34

3

2002 Apr 8-11

30

32

35

3

2002 Mar 4-7

26

36

35

3

2002 Feb 4-6

19

31

47

3

2002 Jan 7-9

21

37

40

2

2001

2001 Dec 6-9

20

35

42

3

2001 Nov 8-11

17

29

50

4

2001 Oct 11-14

21

33

43

3

2001 Sep 14-15

23

29

43

5

2001 Sep 7-10

15

24

59

2

2001 Aug 16-19

20

27

50

3

2001 Jul 19-22

25

29

42

4

2001 Jun 11-17

22

28

45

5

2001 May 10-14

20

28

49

3

2001 Apr 6-8

21

30

44

5

2001 Mar 5-7

22

33

41

4

2001 Feb 1-4

22

33

42

3


Positive


Mixed


Negative

Undesig-
nated

2000

%

%

%

%

2001 Jan 10-14

30

40

26

4

2000 Dec 2-4

36

35

25

4

2000 Nov 13-15

47

32

18

3

2000 Oct 6-9

51

28

18

3

2000 Aug 18-19

60

21

15

4

2000 Jul 25-26

57

23

16

4

2000 May 18-21

48

28

21

3

2000 Jan 7-10

61

21

15

3

1999

1999 Oct 21-24

50

24

23

3

1999 Sep 10-14

55

22

19

4

1999 Aug 24-26

48

28

21

3

1999 Jun 4-5

59

20

17

4

1999 Jan 15-17

54

26

17

3

1998

1998 Dec 4-6

47

28

23

2

1998 Oct 29-Nov 1

47

27

22

4

1998 Sep 1

45

27

24

4

1998 Mar 20-22

59

21

18

2

1997

1997 Dec 18-21

36

28

31

5

1997 Nov 6-9

46

23

28

3

1997 May 6-7

38

23

36

3

1997 Jan 31-Feb 2

33

24

40

3

1996

1996 Oct 26-29

37

25

33

5

1996 Aug 30-Sep 1

31

29

36

4

1996 July 18-21

32

25

40

3

1996 May 9-12

22

28

47

3

1992

1992 Aug 31-Sep 2

7

25

66

2

1992 Jun 12-14

8

25

65

2

How would you rate your financial situation today – as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

 

Excellent

Good

Only fair

Poor

No opinion

%

%

%

%

%

2003 Mar 3-5

5

45

38

12

*

2003 Feb 3-6

5

42

38

14

1

2003 Jan 13-16

9

45

34

12

*

2002 Dec 5-8

8

49

33

10

*

2002 Nov 11-14

8

42

34

15

1

2002 Oct 14-17

9

42

36

13

*

2002 Sep 5-8

6

42

38

13

1

2002 Aug 5-8

7

40

39

13

1

2002 Jul 9-11

7

44

37

12

*

2002 Jun 3-6

7

45

33

14

1

2002 May 6-9

8

43

37

11

1

2002 Apr 8-11

9

43

35

13

*

2002 Mar 4-7

8

44

39

9

*

2002 Feb 4-6

8

42

36

13

1

2002 Jan 7-9

9

45

36

9

1

2001 Dec 6-9

9

47

34

10

*

2001 Nov 8-11

8

46

34

12

*

2001 Oct 11-14

9

46

32

13

*

2001 Sep 7-10

7

47

36

10

*

2001 Aug 16-19

8

44

35

12

1

* Less than 0.5%



Right now, do you think that your financial situation as a whole is getting better or getting worse?

 

Getting better

Getting worse

SAME (vol.)

No opinion

%

%

%

%

2003 Mar 3-5

43

35

20

2

2003 Feb 3-6

44

36

19

1

2003 Jan 13-16

54

27

18

1

2002 Dec 5-8

52

29

19

*

2002 Nov 11-14

46

32

21

1

2002 Oct 14-17

40

36

23

1

2002 Sep 5-8

47

37

15

1

2002 Aug 5-8

47

35

17

1

2002 Jul 9-11

47

34

18

1

2002 Jun 3-6

52

27

20

1

2002 May 6-9

54

28

18

*

2002 Apr 8-11

54

27

19

*

2002 Mar 4-7

55

26

18

1

2002 Feb 4-6

51

28

20

1

2002 Jan 7-9

60

22

17

1

2001 Dec 6-9

59

24

17

*

2001 Nov 8-11

45

33

21

1

2001 Oct 11-14

50

30

19

1

* Less than 0.5%

(vol.) Volunteered response



Thinking of your own financial situation just now, how good of a position are you in to buy some of the things you would like to have -- [ROTATED: a very good position, somewhat good, neither good nor bad, somewhat bad, (or) a very bad position]?

 


Very good posi-
tion


Some-
what good

Neither good nor bad


Some-
what bad


Very bad posi-
tion


No
opin-
ion

%

%

%

%

%

%

2003 Mar 3-5

11

36

25

18

9

1

2003 Feb 3-6

11

34

26

17

11

1

2003 Jan 13-16

12

36

28

14

9

1

2002 Dec 5-8

16

37

21

16

9

1

2002 Nov 11-14

10

37

24

18

10

1

2002 Oct 14-17

12

36

24

15

11

2

2002 Sep 5-8

11

36

22

17

13

1

2002 Aug 5-8

11

35

26

16

11

1

2002 Jul 9-11

10

38

24

15

11

2

2002 Jun 3-6

13

38

23

14

11

1

2002 May 6-9

11

39

25

15

9

1

2002 Apr 8-11

14

38

25

13

10

*

2001 Nov 8-11

12

37

23

17

10

1

2001 Oct 11-14

14

37

24

13

11

1

* Less than 0.5%



Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a quality job?

 

Good time

Bad time

No opinion

%

%

%

National Adults

2003 Mar 3-5

16

81

3

2003 Feb 3-6

19

79

2

2003 Jan 13-16

20

78

2

2002 Dec 5-8

19

78

3

2002 Nov 11-14

27

69

4

2002 Oct 14-17

23

70

7

2002 Sep 5-8

22

74

4

2002 Aug 5-8

27

68

5

2002 Jul 9-11

26

69

5

2002 Jun 3-6

32

64

4

2002 May 6-9

29

67

4

2002 Apr 8-11

29

68

3

2002 Mar 4-7

26

72

2

2002 Feb 4-6

25

72

3

2002 Jan 7-9

24

73

3

2001 Dec 6-9

25

73

2

2001 Nov 8-11

22

75

3

2001 Oct 11-14

25

71

4

2001 Aug 16-19

39

56

5

Employed Adults or Unemployed but looking for work ^

%

%

%

2003 Mar 3-5

16

82

2

2003 Feb 3-6

20

79

1

2003 Jan 13-16

20

78

2

2002 Dec 5-8

20

77

3

2002 Nov 11-14

29

68

3

2002 Oct 14-17

24

70

6

2002 Sep 5-8

23

75

2

2002 Aug 5-8

29

68

3

2002 Jul 9-11

28

68

4

2002 Jun 3-6

35

62

3

2002 May 6-9

30

67

3

2002 Apr 8-11

30

68

2

2002 Mar 4-7

28

70

2

2002 Feb 4-6

24

73

3

2002 Jan 7-9

24

73

3

2001 Dec 6-9

26

71

3

2001 Nov 8-11

22

75

3

2001 Oct 11-14

26

71

3

2001 Aug 16-19

38

59

3

2000 Aug 4-31 †

78

16

6

2000 Jan 5-19 †

76

19

5

1999 Feb 5-22 †

70

24

6

1998 Aug 5-16 †

69

25

6

^

BASED ON – 675 -- EMPLOYED ADULTS OR UNEMPLOYED ADULTS WHO ARE LOOKING FOR WORK

Center for Survey Research & Analysis, Univ. of Connecticut & John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers Univ.




Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/7945/Workers-Sense-Job-Market-Weakening.aspx
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