Speech Watchers Believe Iraq Victory Aids U.S. in War on Terrorism

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President Bush addressed the nation aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln last night, declaring a victorious end to major combat in Iraq for the United States. Bush emphasized the war's positive effects for the ongoing battle against terrorism, saying the coalition forces had toppled a regime that supported terrorism and had consequently cut off a source of weapons of mass destruction for terrorists. Most Americans who watched the speech are positive in their assessment of the war and its effects -- 8 in 10 believe it was a turning point or a major achievement for the United States in the war on terrorism, and three in four believe it will make it easier for the United States to fight the war on terrorism. Bush's speech had a modest positive impact on speech watchers' views as to whether the administration has a clear plan for what to do in Iraq, but did little to change opinions on whether the war is over.

The poll was conducted immediately following the president's address, and consisted of interviews with 409 Americans who indicated they had watched the speech. This group of speech watchers is considerably more Republican than the population at large (47% identified themselves as Republicans, while 23% said they were Democrats and 30% independents). The group was also strongly in favor of the war (82%), somewhat higher than the 70% level of war support found in most recent polls of the U.S. adult population.

Thirty-one percent of those polled say the war with Iraq is a "turning point" in the war on terrorism, while an additional 49% say it is "a major achievement, but not a turning point." Only 7% say this is not an achievement at all as far as the war on terrorism is concerned. Additionally, 75% of speech watchers believe the war with Iraq has made it easier for the United States to fight the war on terrorism. Thirteen percent say it has not made much difference, and 11% think it is now tougher for the United States.

When asked which issue now deserves the higher priority, nearly half of speech watchers say "the country's economic problems" (46%) as opposed to "the threat of terrorism" (28%). About one in four Americans volunteer that both issues deserve equal priority. This result is similar to what has been found in polls conducted since the fall of Baghdad last month, with Americans generally according more importance to the economy now than to the war or the ongoing effort against terrorism.

Speech Does Little to Affect Viewers' Opinions on Iraq

Speech watchers, like the adult population in previous Gallup Polls, are somewhat cautious in their assessment of the Iraqi war's end. Fifty-four percent say the war is over, while a substantial proportion (44%) says it is not. Bush's declaration that major combat is now over in Iraq did little to affect speech watchers' views on this matter, as prior to his address, 52% believed the war was over. Bush mentioned weapons of mass destruction several times during the speech; still, speech watchers' views on this topic did not change as a result of the speech. Seventy-nine percent of speech watchers say the war is justified even if such weapons are not found, the same percentage of this group who said this prior to the speech.

Bush's speech did have a slight positive effect on speech watchers' opinions about U.S. policy in Iraq. Seventy-four percent of those who watched the speech say the Bush administration has a clear plan for what to do in Iraq now that the major fighting has ended. Prior to the speech, 64% of the group thought this.

Overall, 67% rated the speech very positively and 25% rated it somewhat positively. That compares favorably to this year's State of the Union speech, which was rated very positively by 50% of Americans who watched that speech, but is rated somewhat less positively than Bush's 2002 State of the Union speech.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with 409 adults, 18 years and older, who watched President Bush's address to the nation; interviews were conducted May 1, 2003. The group of speech watchers were first interviewed as part of a random sample of national adults on April 30, and at that time indicated they planned to watch Bush's address and agreed to a callback interview. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

First, about how much of the President Bush's speech tonight did you happen to hear or watch – all of the speech, some of it, only a little, or none at all?

What was your overall reaction to Bush's speech tonight – [ROTATED: very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, (or) very negative]?

Based on what you have heard or read about the events in Iraq over the past few weeks, do you think that for all intents and purposes, the war with Iraq is over, or not?

Do you think the war with Iraq – [ROTATED: has made it easier, has not made much difference, or has made it tougher] – for the United States to fight the war on terrorism?

If the United States does not find conclusive evidence that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, would you consider the war with Iraq to be justified, or not?

Do you think the Bush administration has a clear plan for what to do in Iraq now that the major fighting has ended, or not?

Which do you think the Bush administration should now give a higher priority to – [ROTATED: dealing with the threat of terrorism, (or) dealing with the country's economic problems]?

Which comes closest to your view about the war with Iraq – it is a turning point in the war on terrorism, it is a major achievement in the war on terrorism, but not a turning point, it is a minor achievement in the war on terrorism, or it is not an achievement in the war on terrorism?