Americans Warming to Idea of Bush Tax Cuts

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Now that the major fighting in Iraq has subsided, Americans have turned their attention to the ailing economy. That includes President Bush, who has made several public appearances trying to rally support for his proposed economic plan, the centerpiece of which is tax cuts. A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that Bush's efforts may be having an impact, as over the last few weeks, Americans' views of the tax cuts have become more positive. Now, a majority says tax cuts are a good idea at this time, and nearly half believe they will help the economy. This apparent increase in enthusiasm for tax cuts is somewhat dampened by the finding that, by a small margin, Americans say the government should give a higher priority to reducing the deficit than to cutting federal income taxes. Bush's job approval rating remains steady at 69%, about where it has been since the war with Iraq began.

The poll was conducted May 5-7 and shows that now, by more than a two-to-one margin, the public says Bush should give a higher priority to the country's economic problems (62%) than to the threat of terrorism (27%). Since the beginning of April, when it became clear the United States would soon win the war with Iraq, polls have shown Americans assigning much more importance to the economy than to Iraq or terrorism.

Growing Support for Tax Cuts

When asked specifically about the tax cuts Bush is proposing, 52% say they are a good idea at this time, while 41% say they are a bad idea. In just about two weeks, opinion has shifted on this issue. An April 22-23 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Americans, by a 47% to 42% margin, saying the tax cuts were a bad idea.

Proposed Tax Cuts: Good Idea or Bad Idea?

This increasingly positive assessment of Bush's tax cuts has come mostly among Republicans and, to a lesser extent, independents. Seventy-six percent of Republicans say the tax cuts are a good idea, up from 58% in the April poll. Among independents, support for the tax cuts has increased from 38% to 46%. Democrats have shown little change in their view of the tax cuts in recent weeks -- 31% now say the tax cuts are a good idea, compared with 28% in April. All of this suggests that Bush's public appearances and focus on the necessity of passing tax cuts may be helping to ensure that his core base of Republicans are buying into the program.

Forty-seven percent of Americans also say Bush's tax cuts will mostly help the economy, while 31% say they will mostly hurt it, and 19% believe they will have no effect. The percentage saying they will mostly help is up 11 percentage points (from 36% in the April 22-23 poll to 47% now), and the percentage saying they will mostly hurt is up by 5 points (26% to 31%). Increased media attention to the Bush economic plan has probably resulted in the 16-point decline in the percentage of Americans who have a neutral view of the tax cuts.

Proposed Tax Cuts: Help or Hurt the Economy?

In contrast to the findings on the "good idea/bad idea" question, the increasing belief that the tax cuts will help the economy is due to the views of Democrats and independents. Republicans were already sold on the idea that the tax cuts would benefit the economy, as 68% believed this in the April 22-23 poll, compared with 72% now. Among Democrats, the percentage saying the tax cuts will mostly help the economy has more than doubled, from 12% to 26%, while among independents the increase is 9 points (29% to 38%). It is important to note, however, that a majority of Democrats, 52%, still believe the tax cuts would hurt the economy.

The growing support for tax cuts may result from a considerably higher percentage of Americans expressing confidence in Bush (51%), rather than the Democrats in Congress (39%), to handle the economy. This is about the same result found in a January 2002 poll, which showed 55% saying Bush and 36% congressional Democrats.

Public Shows Slight Preference for Deficit Reduction

Tax cuts generally sound appealing to Americans in the abstract, but the truth is the tax cuts must be paid for in some fashion. Often when the public is asked to choose between tax cuts and alternative courses of action, such as maintaining spending on domestic programs, support for tax cuts declines. The latest poll asked Americans if the government should assign a higher priority to cutting federal income taxes or reducing the federal budget deficit. By a 51% to 44% margin, Americans opt for reducing the deficit. This view has changed little in the past few months. A Jan. 13-16 Gallup Poll showed the public preferred reducing the deficit by a 48% to 42% margin.

These preferences vary by partisan affiliation. Republicans, by a 53% to 41% margin, believe the government should give a higher priority to tax cuts, while Democrats, by 61% to 35%, opt for reducing the deficit. Independents also prefer deficit reduction, by a 53% to 42% margin.

Bush Approval Rating Remains High

The poll finds 69% of Americans approving, and 28% disapproving, of the way Bush is handling his job as president. Roughly 7 in 10 Americans have approved of Bush since the war began.

George W. Bush's Job Approval Rating

The poll also finds slight increases in Bush's approval ratings on the economy and foreign affairs, with both coming more into line with his overall approval rating. Currently, 53% approve of Bush's handling of the economy, while 44% disapprove. Bush's economic ratings have been around the 50% approval level since the war began, and were at 49% in the last two measurements. A higher percentage, 68%, approves of Bush's handling of foreign affairs, which has been in the mid-60% range since the war began.

George W. Bush's Job of Handling the Economy and Foreign Affairs

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, 18 years and older, conducted May 5-7, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling --

The economy

Foreign affairs

Do you think the tax cuts being proposed by George W. Bush would -- [ROTATED: mostly help the U.S. economy, would have no effect, or would mostly hurt the U.S. economy] -- over the next year?

BASED ON -- 488 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

Do you think the tax cuts being proposed by George W. Bush are -- [ROTATED: a good idea (or) a bad idea] -- at this time?

BASED ON -- 517 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

Who do you have more confidence in when it comes to handling the economy -- [ROTATED: President Bush (or) the Democrats in Congress]?

Which do you think the Bush administration should now give a higher priority to -- [ROTATED: dealing with the threat of terrorism, (or) dealing with the country's economic problems]?

BASED ON -- 488 -- NATIONAL ADULTS

Thinking about the trade-offs the government must make when creating a federal budget, would you rather see the government give a higher priority to -- [ROTATED: reducing the federal budget deficit (or) cutting federal income taxes]?

BASED ON -- 517 -- NATIONAL ADULTS