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Public Ambivalent About Tax Cuts

Only a third think they will help the economy

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President Bush on Wednesday signed into law a new round of tax cuts, billed as the third-largest tax cut in the country's history. Reportedly costing $350 billion over a 10-year period, it follows a $96 billion stimulus package last year and a $1.35 trillion tax cut two years ago.

The latest Gallup Poll suggests Americans are not especially enthusiastic with the new round of cuts. Slightly more than a third believe they will help the economy, and the public is evenly divided as to whether the cuts are a good or bad idea.

The poll, conducted May 19-21, finds 36% of Americans saying "the tax cuts being proposed by George W. Bush would mostly help the economy," while 30% say they would "mostly hurt" and 23% say they would have no effect on the economy.

Bush Tax-Cut Proposals:
Help or Hurt the Economy in the Next Year?

In a May 5-7 poll, following a series of public appearances by the president on behalf of the tax cuts, opinion was more favorable. Forty-seven percent of Americans thought the tax cuts would mostly help the economy, a jump from the 36% measured two weeks before. While these results suggest that public reaction is somewhat volatile, depending on what is in the news, even the most favorable response shows less than a majority expecting the tax cuts to have a positive effect.

Just half the sample of respondents was asked the question on whether the tax cuts would help or hurt the economy, while the other half was asked if the Bush tax cuts were a good or bad idea. Respondents divided equally on this matter, with 45% saying a good idea and 46% saying a bad idea.

Bush Tax-Cut Proposals:
Good Idea or Bad Idea?

As with the previous question, there was a temporary surge in positive opinion about the tax cuts in early May compared with the end of April. The May 5-7 poll shows the public tilted slightly toward saying the tax cuts were a good rather than bad idea, while the April 22-23 poll found the public tilted slightly in the other direction.

While Americans generally favor tax cuts in principle, they are more cautious when other economic factors are included in the question. In a Jan. 10-12 poll this year, 49% of Americans accepted the Democrats' view that Bush's plan would "significantly increase the federal budget deficit and is unfair because most of its tax cuts go to the wealthiest Americans." A slightly lower number, 44%, accepted Bush's view that his plan would "cut taxes for all taxpayers, stimulate investment, and put more people back to work."

President Bush says his economic stimulus plan will cut taxes for all taxpayers, stimulate investment, and put more people back to work. Democrats say the plan will significantly increase the federal budget deficit and is unfair because most of its tax cuts go to the wealthiest Americans. Which view comes closer to your own?(Rotated responses)

 

Bush's
view

The Democrats'
view

No
opinion

2003 Jan 10-12

44%

49

7



Other evidence for a lukewarm reaction to the tax cuts is found in a May 7 report of a Pew poll. As with Gallup's latest numbers, that report showed a divided public, with 40% approving and 37% disapproving of Bush's tax-cut plan.

Not surprisingly, there are major differences in opinion among partisan groups. The latest Gallup Poll shows:

  • Republicans are much more likely than either independents or Democrats to think Bush's tax cuts will help the economy: 64% of Republicans hold that view, compared with 27% of independents and 22% of Democrats.
  • Similarly, 74% of Republicans think the tax cuts are a "good" idea, but only 38% of independents and 30% of Democrats agree.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 19-21, 2003. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the 505 national adults in the Form A half-sample and 509 national adults in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 590 adults employed full or part-time, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Do you think the tax cuts being proposed by George W. Bush would – [ROTATED: mostly help the U.S. economy, would have no effect, or would mostly hurt the U.S. economy]– over the next year?

BASED ON –505—NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

 

Mostly help

No effect

Mostly hurt

No opinion

%

%

%

%

2003 May 19-21

36

23

30

11

2003 May 5-7

47

19

31

3

2003 Apr 22-23

36

31

26

7



Do you think the tax cuts being proposed by George W. Bush are – [ROTATED: a good idea (or) a bad idea] – at this time?

BASED ON –509—NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

 

Good idea

Bad idea

No opinion

%

%

%

2003 May 19-21

45

46

9

2003 May 5-7

52

41

7

2003 Apr 22-23

42

47

11




Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/8515/Public-Ambivalent-About-Tax-Cuts.aspx
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