Hillary Clinton Remains Polarizing Figure

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- She may be the most controversial first lady in American history. She is the first first lady to run for office on her own after leaving the White House. Hillary Rodham Clinton's memoirs "Living History" fetched an $8 million advance from publisher Simon & Schuster -- one of the highest book advances for a political figure on record. The New York senator's book hits the shelves at America's bookstores Monday, and figures to be another chapter in the public's love-hate relationship with the Clintons.

The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted May 30-June 1, asked Americans for the 59th time since 1993 whether they have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton. The latest survey shows an American public evenly split on its opinions of Sen. Clinton -- 43% favorable and 43% unfavorable.

Opinion of Hillary Clinton

To put these ratings into historical perspective, Sen. Clinton has an average favorable rating of 55% and an average unfavorable rating of 40% over the last decade. Her popularity peaked at what she describes in "Living History" as one of the most difficult times of her life -- the 1998 Monica Lewinsky scandal and the subsequent impeachment hearings for President Bill Clinton. She received a 67% favorable rating in December of that year -- at the height of the House impeachment debate -- and never fell below 60% during 1998.

Her highest unfavorable rating came not when she was involved in a national healthcare debate during the early years of the Clinton administration (when President Clinton's job approval ratings were at their lowest), but after her election to the Senate. She received a 53% unfavorable rating in March 2001, shortly after a swirl of controversy concerning the Clintons' last days in the White House, centering on a list of controversial pardons by Bill Clinton and reports that the Clintons took White House gifts with them when they left.

One might expect that Sen. Clinton would be much more popular among women than among men, but one would be wrong. Only 44% of women have a favorable opinion of her, compared to 41% of men. She is held in much higher regard by minorities (63% of nonwhites have favorable attitudes toward her, compared to 37% of whites) and those with lower incomes (50% of those earning less than $20,000 annually, compared to 37% of those earning $75,000 or more).

But -- as might be expected -- by far the most significant predictors of opinions about Sen. Clinton are political. Two out of three Americans who identify themselves as politically liberal hold a favorable opinion of Sen. Clinton, compared to 27% of the politically conservative. And 71% of Democrats have a favorable opinion, compared to 37% of independents and 18% of Republicans.

Opinion of Hillary Clinton: By Party

May 30 – June 1, 2003

Could Americans Elect Hillary Rodham Clinton to the White House?

The senator has clearly said she will not be a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004. However, in the several polls in which Gallup has included her name on a list of potential and declared candidates for the 2004 Democratic nomination, she has received significantly more support among Democrats than has any other candidate.

The May 30-June 1 poll asked Americans to rate Sen. Clinton's qualifications to be president. One in three said she was not only qualified, but that they would consider voting for her. Most of this support came from Democrats (55%), but 3 out of 10 independents and 1 out of 10 Republicans were willing to admit that they would consider voting for her. Seventeen percent of Americans rated her as qualified, but said they would not vote for her. Finally, 44% said she was not qualified to serve as president. Two out of three Republicans fit into this category, but one out of four Democrats also rated Clinton as unqualified.

By comparison, when this question was asked about Al Gore in 1998, slightly more than half said he was qualified, but a percentage similar to that for Sen. Clinton (34%) said Gore was qualified and that they would consider voting for him.

Assessing Clinton's Character

The May 30-June 1 poll asked Americans to rate Sen. Clinton on several characteristics and qualities -- a question applied to past candidates for the presidency. More than 9 out of 10 Americans (93%) describe her as "intelligent"; however, 85% of Democrats say the term intelligent "strongly applies" to Clinton, compared to 60% of Republicans who say this. Americans also view her as "tough" -- though just 53% say the term "strongly applies" to her.

However, half of Americans say the term "power-hungry" strongly applies to Sen. Clinton -- a view widely held among Republicans (74%, compared to 31% of Democrats). Few Americans are willing to say that Clinton is "honest and trustworthy" (24% "strongly applies"), "warm and friendly" (23%), and "someone you can identify with" (19%).

 

2003 May 30-Jun 1 (sorted by "strongly applies")	Strongly applies	Somewhat applies	TOTAL applies
	%	%	%
Intelligent	72	21	93
Tough	53	30	83
Power-hungry	50	26	76
Honest and trustworthy	24	37	61
Warm and friendly	23	39	62
Someone you can identify with	19	27	46

There have been some changes in the willingness of Americans to apply these terms to Hillary Clinton over time. In particular, in 1993, 44% said "honest and trustworthy" strongly applied to the then-first lady, and 42% said the same for the term "warm and friendly."

The Memoirs' Prospects

Simon & Schuster is gambling that Americans will want the insider's perspective of the Clinton administration years that "Living History" is expected to provide. The initial publication run is expected to reach 1 million copies, higher than usual for autobiographies. However, the May 30-June 1 poll indicates that many Americans may be tired of the Clinton years -- just 5% say they are "eager" to read the book. Another 39% say they may read it some day, and 34% say they don't plan to read it at all. That leaves 21% who say they wouldn't read it if someone paid them to.

Gallup has not asked this type of question about pending book publications in the past, so it is not possible to determine if these responses represent a higher or lower pent-up demand for the book than has been the case for other high-profile memoirs. Some observers have pointed out, however, that 5% of the adult American population represents 10 million people -- more than enough to justify the publisher's investment if most of these people actually purchase the book.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,019 adults, 18 years and older, conducted May 30-June 1, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

 

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Rodham Clinton, or have you never heard of her?

 

		Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion
2003		%	%	%
2003 May 30-Jn 1?		43	43	14
2003 Mar 14-15		45	46	9
2002
2002 Dec 16-17		48	46	6
2002 Sep 23-26		47	44	9
2001
2001 Aug 3-5		51	44	5
2001 Mar 5-7		44	53	3
2001 Feb 19-21		49	44	7
2001 Feb 1-4		52	43	5
2000
2000 Nov 13-15		56	39	5
2000 Oct 25-28		52	43	5
2000 Aug 4-5		45	50	5
2000 Feb 4-6		55	39	6
1999
1999 Dec 9-12		48	48	4
1999 Sep 23-26		56	40	4
1999 Aug 3-4		56	41	3
1999 Jul 22-25		62	35	3
1999 Jun 25-27		56	42	2
1999 Mar 5-7		65	31	4
1999 Feb 19-21		65	30	5
1999 Feb 4-8		66	31	3
1998
1998 Dec 28-29		67	29	4
1998 Oct 9-12 ^		63	33	4
1998 Sep 14-15		61	33	6
1998 Aug 21-23		61	33	6
1998 Aug 20 ^		60	30	10
1998 Aug 18 ^		64	29	7
1998 Aug 10-12		60	36	4
1998 Aug 7-8		60	35	5
1998 Feb 13-15		60	36	4
1998 Jan 30-Feb 1		64	34	2
1998 Jan 28 ^		61	34	5
1998 Jan 24-25		61	33	6
1998 Jan 23-24		60	35	5
		Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion
1997
1997 Dec 18-21		56	38	6
1997 Oct 27-29		61	34	5
1997 Jun 26-29		51	42	7
1997 Feb 24-26		51	42	6
1997 Jan 31-Feb 2		55	39	6
1997 Jan 10-13		56	37	7
1996
1996 Oct 26-29 ^		49	43	8
1996 Aug 28-29 †		51	41	8
1996 Aug 16-18 †		47	48	5
1996 Aug 5-7 †		48	45	7
1996 Jun 18-19		46	47	6
1996 Mar 15-17		47	48	5
1996 Jan 12-15		43	51	6
1995
1995 Jul 7-9		50	44	6
1995 Mar 17-19		49	44	7
1995 Jan 16-18		50	44	6
1994
1994 Nov 28-29		50	44	6
1994 Sep 6-7		48	47	5
1994 Jul 15-17		48	46	6
1994 Apr 22-24		56	40	4
1994 Mar 25-27		52	42	6
1994 Mar 7-8		55	40	5
1994 Jan 15-17		57	36	7
1993
1993 Nov 2-4		58	34	8
1993 Sep 24-26		62	27	11
1993 Aug 8-10		57	33	10
^	Based on a one-night poll.
†	Based on likely voters.
‡	Based on registered voters.
?	Asked as stand-alone question
	2002-March 2003 WORDING: New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton

Do you have a very [favorable/unfavorable] opinion, or somewhat [favorable/unfavorable]?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.8-9)

 

	Very favor- able	Some- what favor- able	Some- what unfavor- able	Very unfavor- able	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2003 May 30-Jun 1	19	24	19	24	14

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views of Hillary Clinton -- [ROTATED: you think Hillary Clinton is qualified to be President, and you would consider voting for her for President, you think Hillary Clinton is qualified to be President, but you would NOT vote for her for President, you do NOT think Hillary Clinton is qualified to be President]?

 

	Qualified, would vote for	Qualified, would not vote for	Not qualified	NOT QUALI- FIED, WOULD VOTE FOR (vol.)	No opin- ion
	%	%	%	%	%
2003 May 30-Jun 1	33	17	44	3	3
(vol.) Volunteered response

Trend for Comparison: Al Gore

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views of Al Gore -- [ROTATED: you think Al Gore is qualified to be President, and you would consider voting for him for President, you think Al Gore is qualified to be President, but you would NOT vote for him for President, you do NOT think Al Gore is qualified to be President]?

 

	Qualified, would vote for	Qualified, would not vote for	Not qualified	NOT QUALIFIED, WOULD VOTE FOR (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
1998 Aug 21-23	34	22	36	--	8
1998 Mar 20-22	35	25	32	--	8
1998 Jan 16-18	30	26	36	--	8
(vol.) Volunteered response

I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, tell me if you think it strongly applies to Hillary Clinton, somewhat applies, or doesn't apply. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. Intelligent

 

	Strongly applies	Somewhat applies	Doesn't apply	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2003 May 30-Jun 1
National Adults	72	21	5	2
Men	66	25	7	2
Women	77	18	3	2
1993 Jan 29-31	79	16	3	2

B. Honest and trustworthy

 

	Strongly applies	Somewhat applies	Doesn't apply	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2003 May 30-Jun 1
National Adults	24	37	35	4
Men	25	33	38	4
Women	23	41	31	5
1993 Jan 29-31	44	38	9	9

C. Power-hungry

 

	Strongly applies	Somewhat applies	Doesn't apply	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2003 May 30-Jun 1
National Adults	50	26	20	4
Men	51	24	20	5
Women	50	28	20	2
1993 Jan 29-31	33	26	33	8

D. Tough

 

	Strongly applies	Somewhat applies	Doesn't apply	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2003 May 30-Jun 1
National Adults	53	30	14	3
Men	45	33	19	3
Women	59	28	9	4
1993 Jan 29-31	53	31	10	6

E. Warm and friendly

 

	Strongly applies	Somewhat applies	Doesn't apply	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2003 May 30-Jun 1
National Adults	23	39	33	5
Men	21	37	36	6
Women	25	40	30	5
1993 Jan 29-31	42	39	13	6

F. Someone you can identify with

 

	Strongly applies	Somewhat applies	Doesn't apply	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2003 May 30-Jun 1
National Adults	19	27	51	3
Men	18	25	54	3
Women	20	28	50	2

SUMMARY TABLE: CLINTON QUALITIES AND CHARACTERISTICS

 

2003 May 30-Jun 1 (sorted by strongly applies)	Strongly applies	Somewhat applies	TOTAL applies
	%	%	%
Intelligent	72	21	93
Tough	53	30	83
Power-hungry	50	26	76
Honest and trustworthy	24	37	61
Warm and friendly	23	39	62
Someone you can identify with	19	27	46

As you may know, Hillary Clinton's book titled "Living History" about her time in the White House will be published next week. Which of the following best describes your reaction to this book -- [ROTATED: you are eager to read it, you may read it some day, you don't plan on reading it, (or) you wouldn't read it if someone paid you to]?

 

	Eager to read it	May read it some day	Don't plan on reading it	Wouldn't read if paid to	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2003 May 30-Jun 1	5	39	34	21	1