Speaking to graduating West Point cadets on May 31, Vice President Dick Cheney issued a warning that is quickly becoming a familiar Bush administration refrain: though the ousting of Saddam Hussein as the leader of Iraq was a major step in the war on terror, that war is by no means over. Cheney described what he termed the "Bush Doctrine" in his speech at the U.S. military academy, saying, "The only way to deal with this threat is to destroy it completely and utterly. And President Bush is absolutely determined to do just that."
Most Americans take such tough talk to mean there will be additional military campaigns in the near future. When asked in a Gallup Poll taken May 30-June 1*, "In the next few years, do you think the United States' efforts against terrorism will -- or will not -- require the U.S. to put military troops in combat situations in other countries as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan," more than three in four Americans (77%) said they think such action will be necessary.
Not all Americans are equally likely to believe that further military action will be required in the near future. As might be expected given the Bush administration's rhetoric, those who said they are politically liberal are somewhat less likely than conservatives and moderates to foresee a need for future combat, but all three groups show strong consensus that further military action will be required. There is significant variation by age: 83% of Americans under 50 said it will be necessary to put the U.S. military into combat situations to fight terrorism, compared with 68% of those 50 and older (the percentage is just 57% among those age 65 and older). It may be that older Americans who witnessed the morass of the Vietnam War are simply less likely to believe a drawn-out military effort is necessary to combat terrorism.
Interestingly, those who are pessimistic about the ultimate consequences of U.S. involvement in Iraq are no less likely than other people to believe that future combat in the war on terrorism can be avoided: 74% of those who said the war with Iraq will end up creating more problems than it solves also said they think more military action will be necessary to combat terrorism in the next few years.
Bottom Line
With last month's terrorist strikes in Saudi Arabia and Morocco attributed to al Qaeda, and the subsequent raising of the terrorist threat level by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Americans have been reminded that terrorist organizations are still active and targeting U.S. interests. Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have all been portrayed in the media as possible harbors for al Qaeda operatives. And as Cheney noted in his West Point speech, the Bush Doctrine does not distinguish between states supporting or providing sanctuary for terrorists, and terrorists themselves. Thus, it's hardly surprising that a strong majority of Americans see further military conflict as inevitable in the short term.
*Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,019 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 30 through June 1, 2003. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3%.
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