Satisfaction With Way Things Going in U.S. Continues Post-War Decline

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ – A new Gallup Poll shows ratings of satisfaction with the state of the nation continue their post-war decline. Forty-seven percent of Americans say they are satisfied, down from 60% immediately after the start of the Iraq conflict. For the first time since the war began, more Americans are dissatisfied than satisfied. The poll also finds that nearly half of Americans mention economic concerns as the most important problem facing the United States, about where it has been since the U.S. victory in Iraq was assured. Americans are currently more optimistic about the direction of the economy than they have been in about a year.

The poll, conducted June 12-15, finds 47% of Americans satisfied and 51% dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country. This continues a downward trend that began as major fighting in Iraq wound down, though the current figures remain higher than those found prior to the war. Following the beginning of military action, satisfaction zoomed from 36% to 60%. Decay became evident by the beginning of April, when satisfaction dropped to 55% during the U.S. takeover of Baghdad.

Satisfaction With the Way Things Are Going in the United States 2002 - 2003

The decline in satisfaction ratings is consistent with the trend in other standard Gallup measures. For example, both presidential job approval and ratings of the national economy showed wartime spikes, and both have retreated in recent months, though they remain higher than pre-war levels.

Even though the wording of the satisfaction question is quite broad in nature, the responses reflect large partisan differences. Seventy-six percent of Republicans are satisfied with the course of the nation, compared with just 26% of Democrats (40% of independents are satisfied). Historical Gallup data show that satisfaction ratings appear to be heavily influenced by the party that controls the presidency.

Satisfaction With the Way Things Are Going in the United States By Political Party

June 12-15, 2003

Economy Viewed as Most Important Problem

When asked to name the most important problem facing the country, nearly half of Americans spontaneously mention something about the economy, a percentage similar to that found in the last two months. Specifically, 30% say the economy in general is the most important problem, while 12% say it is unemployment or jobs. The most frequent non-economic concern is terrorism, mentioned by 11% of Americans. Eight percent say the situation in Iraq is the most pressing national issue.

Once it became clear that the United States would prevail against Iraq, the issue of war quickly faded from the top of Americans' list of most important problems, leaving the economy as the overriding concern. While 29% mentioned something about war in March, putting it on par with the economy, that percentage dropped to 16% in April, while the economy more or less stayed steady at 31%. By May, the percent mentioning war or Iraq fell further to just 7%.

Top Five Issues Most Frequently Mentioned as Most Important Problem, March-June 2003

Historically speaking, when the economy is struggling, it usually is the dominant concern among the public on the most important problem measure. There are exceptions, however -- a major crisis issue (for example, the war in Iraq, or prior to that, the threat of terrorism) can compete for the nation's attention even when the economy is in poor shape.

The poll shows that the economy is the top concern among Democrats, independents, and Republicans. However, Republicans (20%) are much more likely than Democrats (5%) to mention terrorism as the most important problem.

Ratings of the Economy

Gallup's latest ratings of the economy are not overly positive, but are more positive than last month. Forty-five percent of the public says the economy is now getting better while 43% say it is getting worse. The current reading shows slightly more optimism than last month's (when 40% thought the economy was getting better), and significantly more optimism than earlier readings this year. In fact, this is the first time since June 2002 that more Americans said the economy was getting better than said it was getting worse.

Twenty-six percent rate current economic conditions as "excellent" or "good," up from 21% in a May 19-21 poll, but still a generally low rating. Americans still rate the job market quite negatively; only about one in five Americans say it is now "a good time to find a quality job," little changed from last month.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,006 adults, 18 years and older, conducted June 12-15, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

3. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?

4. What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? [Open-ended]

* -- less than 0.5%