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Bush Approval Ratings Stabilize

Bush gets higher ratings overall than for handling either economy or foreign affairs

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Despite dramatic news coming from Iraq last week that U.S. forces had killed Saddam Hussein's sons, the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows George W. Bush's job approval rating has stabilized in the high 50s. Ratings of Bush on the economy and foreign affairs have also stabilized, though at lower levels than his overall rating. The data suggest a slight increase in the public's approval of Bush's handling of Iraq in the wake of last week's news.

Throughout his presidency, and unlike his two predecessors, Bush's overall job approval ratings have tended to be higher than his ratings in more specific areas such as the economy or foreign affairs.

The poll, conducted July 25-27, finds 58% of Americans approving and 38% disapproving of the job Bush is doing as president. Bush's ratings had been in the low 60s throughout June and July, before dipping to 59% in a July 18-20 poll. Bush's current approval rating has returned to his pre-war levels from earlier this year. The recent decline in his ratings most likely reflects the decay of the wartime "rally" effect that moved his ratings from 58% to 71% after the war with Iraq started. Bush still remains slightly above his pre-9/11 rating of 51%, and above the historical average presidential approval rating (dating back to the 1940s) of 56%.

George W. Bush's Job Approval Rating

Bush's Ratings on the Issues

News about the deaths of Saddam's sons may have helped boost Bush's ratings for his handling of the situation with Iraq. Sixty percent now approve of his handling of Iraq, compared with 57% in the prior week's poll. This represents the first increase in Bush's ratings on Iraq since he declared major fighting over on May 1. There was roughly a 20-point drop in the public's ratings of Bush's handling of Iraq between mid-April and mid-July.

George W. Bush's Job of Handling Iraq Situation

However, Bush's ratings on the economy and foreign affairs have been stable since early June. Slightly more Americans currently disapprove (51%) than approve (46%) of Bush's handling of the economy. On foreign affairs, Americans approve by a 54% to 42% margin. As is the case in the current poll, Bush's overall job approval rating has generally been higher than his ratings on the economy and foreign affairs.

George W. Bush's Job Approval Ratings

Since Gallup began regularly tracking the three approval ratings in the 1980s, this pattern is somewhat unusual. Throughout most of his presidency, Bill Clinton's overall approval ratings fell between his ratings on the economy and foreign affairs. This was especially the case in the latter stages of his presidency, when Clinton's ratings on foreign affairs and the economy began to diverge during the economic boom. Clinton's economic ratings started to surge in early 1998, but at the same time, the nation was focused on the Monica Lewinsky controversy.

Bill Clinton's Job Approval Ratings

Similarly, the elder George Bush showed overall approval ratings that generally fell between his (rather high) ratings on foreign affairs and his (rather low) ratings on the economy. In the earlier part of his presidency, though, the elder Bush's overall rating closely matched his rating on handling foreign affairs.

George Bush's Job Approval Ratings

The current president's pattern mirrors that of Ronald Reagan, who was generally given higher ratings overall than for his handling of the two primary areas of presidential concern. The only difference is that the current president's averages on all three approval ratings are higher than what Reagan averaged while president. Reagan averaged a 53% overall job approval rating while president from 1981-1989, a 46% approval rating on the economy, and 43% on foreign affairs. To date, Bush has averaged 68% overall, 54% on the economy, and 62% on foreign affairs.

Ronald Reagan's Job Approval Ratings

Looking to 2004

The most recent poll assessed Bush's current re-election prospects by asking the public whom they would be more likely to vote for in 2004 -- Bush or the Democratic Party's candidate. Forty-nine percent of registered voters say Bush, while 40% choose the Democrat. In the July 18-20 poll, the gap was smaller, with Bush leading by 46% to 42% among registered voters. It is unclear whether this movement is related to the recent developments in Iraq, or a temporary deviation from the prevailing pattern. For the past year, support for Bush on this measure has been near 50% among registered voters, suggesting he would be moderately well-positioned if the election were held today. However, given that the election remains more than a year away, it is difficult to draw any firm conclusions about the chances of Bush's re-election at this time.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,006 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 25-27, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

 


Approve

Dis-approve

No
opinion

%

%

%

2003

2003 Jul 25-27

58

38

4

2003 Jul 18-20

59

38

3

2003 Jul 7-9

62

34

4

2003 Jun 27-29

61

36

3

2003 Jun 12-15

63

33

4

2003 Jun 9-10

62

34

4

2003 May 30-Jun 1

64

32

4

2003 May 19-21

66

30

4

2003 May 5-7

69

28

3

2003 Apr 22-23

70

26

4

2003 Apr 14-16

71

24

5

2003 Apr 7-9

69

26

5

2003 Apr 5-6

70

27

3

2003 Mar 29-30

71

26

3

2003 Mar 24-25

69

27

4

2003 Mar 22-23

71

25

4

2003 Mar 14-15

58

38

4

2003 Mar 3-5

57

37

6

2003 Feb 24-26

57

37

6

2003 Feb 17-19

58

37

5

2003 Feb 7-9

61

34

5

2003 Feb 3-6

59

35

6

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

61

35

4

2003 Jan 23-25

60

36

4

2003 Jan 20-22

58

36

6

2003 Jan 13-16

61

34

5

2003 Jan 10-12

58

37

5

2003 Jan 3-5

63

32

5

2002

2002 Dec 19-22

61

32

7

2002 Dec 16-17

63

33

4

2002 Dec 9-10

63

32

5

2002 Dec 5-8

64

29

7

2002 Nov 22-24

65

28

7

2002 Nov 11-14

66

26

8

2002 Nov 8-10

68

27

5

2002 Oct 31-Nov 3

63

29

8

2002 Oct 21-22

67

28

5

2002 Oct 14-17

62

31

7

2002 Oct 3-6

67

28

5

2002 Sep 23-26

68

26

6

2002 Sep 20-22

66

30

4

2002 Sep 13-16

70

26

4

2002 Sep 5-8

66

30

4

2002 Sep 2-4

66

29

5

2002 Aug 19-21

65

28

7

2002 Aug 5-8

68

26

6

2002 Jul 29-31

71

23

6

2002 Jul 26-28

69

26

5

2002 Jul 22-24

69

24

7

2002 Jul 9-11

73

21

6

2002 Jul 5-8

76

18

6

2002 Jun 28-30

76

19

5

2002 Jun 21-23

73

21

6

2002 Jun 17-19

74

20

6

2002 Jun 7-8

74

18

8

2002 Jun 3-6

70

23

7

2002 May 28-29

77

17

6

2002 May 20-22

76

17

7

2002 May 6-9

76

19

5

2002 Apr 29-May 1

77

20

3

2002 Apr 22-24

77

17

6

2002 Apr 8-11

75

20

5

2002 Apr 5-7

76

19

5

2002 Mar 22-24

79

17

4

2002 Mar 18-20

79

16

5

2002 Mar 8-9

80

14

6

2002 Mar 4-7

77

18

5

2002 Mar 1-3

81

14

5

2002 Feb 8-10

82

14

4

2002 Feb 4-6

82

14

4

2002 Jan 25-27

84

13

3

2002 Jan 11-14

83

13

4

2002 Jan 7-9

84

12

4

2001

2001 Dec 14-16

86

11

3

2001 Dec 6-9

86

10

4

2001 Nov 26-27

87

8

5

2001 Nov 8-11

87

9

4

2001 Nov 2-4

87

9

4

2001 Oct 19-21

88

9

3

2001 Oct 11-14

89

8

3

2001 Oct 5-6

87

10

3

2001 Sep 21-22

90

6

4

2001 Sep 14-15

86

10

4

2001 Sep 7-10

51

39

10

2001 Aug 24-26

55

36

9

2001 Aug 16-19

57

34

9

2001 Aug 10-12

57

35

8

2001 Aug 3-5

55

35

10

2001 Jul 19-22

56

33

11

2001 Jul 10-11

57

35

8

2001 Jun 28-Jul 1

52

34

14

2001 Jun 11-17

55

33

12

2001 Jun 8-10

55

35

10

2001 May 18-20

56

36

8

2001 May 10-14

56

31

13

2001 May 7-9

53

33

14

2001 Apr 20-22

62

29

9

2001 Apr 6-8

59

30

11

2001 Mar 26-28

53

29

18

2001 Mar 9-11

58

29

13

2001 Mar 5-7

63

22

15

2001 Feb 19-21

62

21

17

2001 Feb 9-11

57

25

18

2001 Feb 1-4

57

25

18



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

  1. The economy

 


Approve

Dis-approve

No
opinion


Approve

Dis-approve

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

%

2003

2002

2003 Jul 25-27

46

51

3

2002 Oct 21-22

49

44

7

2002 Jul 26-28

52

43

5

2003 Jul 18-20

45

51

4

2002 Jul 5-8

58

36

6

2003 Jul 7-9

48

50

2

2002 Jun 28-30

63

33

4

2003 Jun 12-15

48

48

4

2002 May 20-22

61

29

10

2003 May 5-7

53

44

3

2002 Apr 5-7 ^

60

33

7

2003 Apr 14-16

49

45

6

2002 Mar 22-24

65

29

6

2003 Mar 29-30

49

47

4

2002 Mar 1-3

64

31

5

2003 Mar 24-25

52

42

6

2002 Feb 4-6

66

30

4

2003 Mar 14-15

44

52

4

2002 Jan 25-27

64

30

6

2003 Feb 3-6

44

52

4

2001

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

47

48

5

2001 Nov 2-4 ^

71

24

5

2003 Jan 23-25

46

49

5

2001 Oct 5-6

72

23

5

2003 Jan 10-12

48

47

5

2001 Jul 10-11

54

36

10

2003 Jan 3-5

49

47

4

2001 May 18-20

51

41

8

2002

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

55

38

7

2002 Dec 9-10

49

47

4

2001 Mar 9-11

55

32

13

2002 Nov 8-10

55

39

6

2001 Feb 1-4

53

27

20

^ Asked of half sample.



B. Foreign affairs

 


Approve

Dis-approve

No
opinion


Approve

Dis-approve

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

%

2003

2002

2003 Jul 25-27

54

42

4

2002 Oct 21-22

58

35

7

2002 Jul 26-28

63

30

7

2003 Jul 18-20

54

41

5

2002 Jul 5-8

71

25

4

2003 Jul 7-9

55

42

3

2002 Jun 28-30

66

27

7

2003 Jun 12-15

58

39

3

2002 May 20-22

70

23

7

2003 May 5-7

68

30

2

2002 Apr 5-7 ^

70

24

6

2003 Apr 14-16

65

31

4

2002 Mar 22-24

71

22

7

2003 Mar 29-30

64

31

5

2002 Mar 1-3

78

17

5

2003 Mar 24-25

65

30

5

2002 Feb 4-6

79

16

5

2003 Mar 14-15

53

43

4

2002 Jan 25-27

83

14

3

2003 Feb 3-6

49

46

5

2001

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

57

39

4

2001 Oct 5-6

81

14

5

2003 Jan 23-25

50

45

5

2001 Jul 10-11

54

33

13

2003 Jan 10-12

53

42

5

2001 May 18-20

55

35

10

2003 Jan 3-5

60

35

5

2001 Apr 20-22 ^

56

31

13

2002

2001 Mar 9-11

52

27

21

2002 Dec 9-10

59

35

6

2001 Feb 1-4

46

21

33

2002 Nov 8-10

59

36

5

^ Asked of half sample.



C. The situation with Iraq

 

Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

%

%

%

2003 Jul 25-27

60

38

2

2003 Jul 18-20

57

39

4

2003 Jul 7-9

58

39

3

2003 Jun 12-15

63

34

3

2003 Apr 14-16

76

21

3

2003 Mar 29-30

71

27

2

2003 Mar 24-25

71

26

3

2003 Mar 14-15

56

41

3

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

54

42

4

2003 Jan 3-5

55

40

5

2002 Dec 9-10

55

39

6

2002 Oct 21-22

52

40

8



D. Domestic problems here at home

 

Approve

Disapprove

No
opinion

2003 Jul 25-27

49%

47

4



3. If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general, are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?

 


Bush

Democratic
candidate

OTHER
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

George W. Bush

National Adults

(NA) 2003 Jul 25-27

48

40

5

7

(NA) 2003 Jul 18-20

47

41

3

9

(NA) 2003 Jun 12-18

50

38

3

9

(NA) 2003 Apr 22-23

49

35

3

13

(NA) 2003 Mar 29-30

51

36

4

9

(NA) 2003 Mar 14-15

45

42

5

8

(NA) 2003 Feb 24-26

46

40

4

10

(NA) 2002 Dec 16-17

49

37

4

10

(NA) 2002 Oct 3-6

52

35

2

11

(NA) 2002 Jul 29-31

50

34

3

13

(NA) 2002 Jun 21-23

51

36

3

10

(NA) 2002 Apr 29-May 1

56

31

3

10

(NA) 2001 Oct 5-6

54

29

2

15

Registered Voters

(RV) 2003 Jul 25-27

49

40

5

6

(RV) 2003 Jul 18-20

46

42

3

9

(RV) 2003 Jun 12-18

51

39

3

7

(RV) 2003 Apr 22-23

49

36

3

12

(RV) 2003 Mar 29-30

51

36

4

9

(RV) 2003 Mar 14-15

45

42

5

8

(RV) 2003 Feb 24-26

47

39

4

10

(RV) 2002 Dec 16-17

51

37

3

9

(RV) 2002 Oct 3-6

54

35

1

10

(RV) 2002 Jul 29-31

51

34

3

12

(RV) 2002 Jun 21-23

51

37

3

9

(RV) 2002 Apr 29-May 1

56

32

3

9

(RV) 2001 Oct 5-6

56

29

2

13

George H.W. Bush

(RV) 1992 Jan 31-Feb 2

46

38

--

16

(RV) 1992 Jan 3-6

39

43

--

18

(RV) 1991 Dec 5-8

48

34

--

18

(RV) 1991 Nov 14-17

48

36

--

16

(RV) 1991 Oct 31-Nov 3

46

36

--

18

(RV) 1991 Oct 10-13

49

32

--

19

(RV) 1991 Sep 13-15

51

29

--

20

(RV) 1991 Sep 5-8

52

29

--

19

(RV) 1991 Aug 23-25

55

27

--

18

(RV) 1991 Jun 13-16

53

30

--

17

(RV) 1991 Apr 25-28

51

30

--

19

(RV) 1991 Mar 7-10

67

17

--

16

(RV) 1991 Feb 14-17

54

33

--

13

1991-1992 WORDING: If George Bush runs for re-election in 1992, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?




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