Parties at Parity

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans give nearly identical favorable ratings to the two major political parties, but neither party is held in particularly high esteem at this time. Both parties are viewed slightly more negatively now than they were at this time last year. Americans continue to perceive the Republican Party as the party better able to handle external threats to the United States, while the Democratic Party has a slight edge as the party Americans perceive as better able to keep the country prosperous.

The latest Gallup Poll measures of the two parties' images were included in the Gallup Poll Social Series annual survey of attitudes toward governance, conducted Sept. 8-10.

Asked to indicate if they have a favorable or an unfavorable image of the Republican and Democratic Parties, about half of Americans say they have a favorable image of each:

Opinion of Republican and Democratic Parties

Sep 8-10, 2003

Gallup has asked Americans to rate their images of the two parties using this scale for 11 years.

The high point for the Republican Party's image over this period came in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks: a January 2002 poll showed that 61% of Americans had a favorable image of the GOP.

The low point for the Republican Party's image came during the impeachment of President Bill Clinton, when the Republicans were deeply involved in bringing impeachment proceedings against Clinton in the House of Representatives, and then pushing for a vote to convict him on the charges in the U.S. Senate. At one point in the proceedings, in December 1998, only 31% of Americans had a favorable opinion of the GOP, while 57% reported having an unfavorable opinion.

Opinion of Republican Party July 1992 – September 2003

The Democratic Party's image was most positive (61% favorable) in January 2000 -- in the midst of the sustained economic boom with Clinton, a Democrat, in the White House. Democrats had another high point in the summer of 1996, just after the Democratic Convention in which Clinton and Al Gore were renominated in their ultimately successful run for re-election.

The image of the Democratic Party has never fallen below 48% over the past 11 years, which means the current favorable opinion of Democrats is nearly at a low point.

Opinion of Democratic Party July 1992 – September 2003

We can look at these data in a slightly different way by examining the net difference in the favorable images of the two parties. The table below displays the net difference between the favorable image of the Republican Party and the favorable image of the Democratic Party since 1992:

As can be seen, the weakest point for the Republicans came at the time in and around the Clinton impeachment. The net negative gap between the Republicans and the Democrats was –26 points in December 1998. The GOP's image recovered fairly quickly, however, and by August 2000, in the midst of the presidential race, the Republicans were more likely than the Democrats to be viewed favorably -- by 1 percentage point. Republicans, however, have never enjoyed very large image advantages over the Democrats. The largest advantage in favorable percentages that Republicans have had over Democrats (7 points) came in March of this year.

Party of Prosperity

Since 1951, Gallup has been asking Americans to name which of the two major parties they think will do a better job of keeping the country prosperous for the next few years.

Which Party Will Do a Better Job of Keeping the Country Prosperous?

The graph shows that Democrats over the years have enjoyed an advantage or have been at parity with the Republicans for much of the past half century. Republicans moved ahead at various points during the Reagan administration, between 1981 and 1988, and again in the first three years of the first Bush administration, between 1989 and 1991. (By mid-1992, the Democrats had moved ahead again.) Since then, this prosperity edge has shifted back and forth, culminating in the current situation in which the Democrats are slightly more likely to be chosen on this measure than the Republicans.

Does this prosperity measure help predict the winners of presidential elections?

Here's a review of what was happening on this measure before recent presidential elections:

The table indicates that Americans' perceptions of the parties on this measure are related to the victor in the presidential race. In every year except one, the party leading on this prosperity measure went on to win the election, or at least the popular vote. The exception was in 1980, when the Democrats had a slight advantage of 1 point as of October. Ronald Reagan, of course, went on to win the presidency that year by a substantial margin in the popular vote.

This year, for the second time, Gallup asked Americans which political party will do a better job of "protecting the country from international terrorism and military threats":

Which Party Will Do a Better Job of Protecting the Country From Terrorism and Military Threats?

Republicans have a 15-point margin on this measure, slightly lower than the 19-point margin they enjoyed last year.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,025 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Sept. 8-10, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.