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Election Polls -- Accuracy Record in Presidential Elections

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Gallup Poll Accuracy Record

Year	Candidates	Final Gallup Survey	Election Result	Gallup Deviation
		%	%	%
2004	Bush	49.0	51.0	-2.0
	Kerry	49.0	48.0	+1.0

2000	Bush	48.0	47.9	+0.1
	Gore	46.0	48.4	-2.4
	Nader	4.0	2.7	+1.3


1996	Clinton	52.0	50.1	+1.9
	Dole	41.0	41.4	-0.4
	Perot	7.0	8.5	-1.5

1992	Clinton	49.0	43.3	+5.7
	Bush	37.0	37.7	-0.7
	Perot	14.0	19.0	-5.0

1988	Bush	56.0	53.0	+2.1
	Dukakis	44.0	46.1	-2.1

1984	Reagan	59.0	59.2	-0.2
	Mondale	41.0	40.8	+0.2

1980	Reagan	47.0	50.8	-3.8
	Carter	44.0	41.0	+3.0
	Anderson	8.0	6.6	+1.4
	Other	1.0	1.6	-0.6

1976	Carter	48.0	50.1	-2.1
	Ford	49.0	48.1	+0.9
	McCarthy	2.0	0.9	+1.1
	Other	1.0	0.9	+0.1

1972	Nixon	62.0	61.8	+0.2
	McGovern	38.0	38.2	-0.2

1968	Nixon	43.0	43.5	-0.5
	Humphrey	42.0	42.9	-0.9
	Wallace	15.0	13.6	+1.4

1964	Johnson	64.0	61.3	+2.7
	Goldwater	36.0	38.7	-2.7

1960	Kennedy	51.0	50.1	+0.9
	Nixon	49.0	49.9	-0.9

1956	Eisenhower	59.5	57.8	+1.7
	Stevenson	40.5	42.2	-1.7

1952	Eisenhower	51.0	55.4	-4.4
	Stevenson	49.0	44.6	+4.4

1948	Truman	44.5	49.5	-5.0
	Dewey	49.5	45.1	+4.4
	Wallace	4.0	2.4	+1.6
	Other	2.0	3.0	-1.0

1944	Roosevelt	51.5	53.8	-2.3
	Dewey	48.5	46.2	+2.3

1940	Roosevelt	52.0	55.0	-3.0
	Wilkie	48.0	45.0	+3.0

1936	Roosevelt	55.7	62.5	-6.8
	Landon	44.3	37.5	+6.8

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